The trend from October 1st and then just after the last debate clearly shows that it favors the President. State polls always lag the national polls but I would have to say that the President is probably pretty happy right now. Getting back to the trend that I was talking about one can see this trend showing up in all the polls now.
Someone on the tube today claimed that Kutnruns internals for Ohio showed him in front. Here in Iowa, unfortunately, my gut suggests W is down. I know folks that claimed they voted W last time and will not this time. So far no effort to inspire a big church turnout. Biggest and most enthusiastic effort I ever saw here was when Robertson was in the primary. That year was huge. W can still do it--but he needs someone to make an effort to fire up the base. Just not happening yet. Bringing in a Rudy or Pataki just is not the ticket. Somebody has miscalibrated this thing in this state. Romney was just here but that too is a nonevent. Most have no clue who he is and he sure is not going to inspire anyone. Come on W staff--get on this now or write us off now. W is the headliner, but if he cannot show, then everyday we need to see Laura, or Jeb. An evening event is a must for turnout. W has yet to appear in anything other than midday--and then in a fairly small venue of a few thousand.
Now move out.