Gallup Poll: Bush 52%, Kerry 44%

CNN, Late Edition

[JohnHuang2]

FROM DRUDGE:

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

end

190 posted on 10/17/2004 12:31:46 PM EDT by Petronski (I'm not always cranky.)

[Petronski]

FROM DRUDGE:

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

end

[Dont Mention the War]

On a serious note, I want to see the internals. However, this 8-point lead would seem to validate the junky-looking 6-point lead in Newsweek yesterday.

Someone posted last night that the Kerry camp was waiting to see the results of the Gallup poll before going into full meltdown mode. I think they were expecting (or at least praying for) a much different result than this.

[aft_lizard]

I dont want to seem like COURAGE, but we have got to question the amount of swing in this poll. GAllup has been too volatile it seems since the GOP convention.

[jwalsh07]

WHOA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Johnny my man. We're looking good but we all gotta soldier on until the battle is over. Regards to you and yours JH.

[veronica]

Mr. Newt predicted Bush would break away. Looks like Mr. Newt was right. Two more weeks of this madness, then we can all breath, and I can stick it to my pompous liberal friends. I'm praying...every day.

[Nataku X]

That works. ;)

[airborne]

We shall see!

[DaBroasta]

Kerry and the sheer hatred of the rabid RAT cult is starting to creep through the MSM filter. Even the complacent Joe-baga-donuts type is noticing the vitriol and the hard liberal left turn Kerry and Edwards want the mind-numbed masses to take. As a result the toilet ticket is finding it harder to conceal their bigotry and haughtiness and they're making mistakes.

[mylife]

thanks for responding to my "poll" Poll

[woodyinscc]

YAHOOOOOOO... its lookin like its all about Ohio.

If President Bush wins the popular vote by the margins in this poll , Ohio is irrelevant, and being redundant, is mute. It will be an electoral vote landslide.

[garbanzo]

Bush 52%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%

Those are my numbers too. Said so since before the GOP convention.

[cricket]

"Oops! Wonder if JFnK is regretting his lesbian remark now?

No doubt, Kerry and his entire team; regret the moment where Kerry was just 'himself'.

[Arrowhead1952]

I really glad to see skerry getting his message out, and the people are listening. Nothing but good news for us. Keep skerry, Thra aaa za, and ms edwards talking.

[JennysCool]

A New Mexican polled by Gallup? The entire town? :-)

[True_wesT]

Looks like Bush's lead, such as it is, is solidifying. This election can't get here soon enough.

This must be why the Kerry campaign is a) spending all their time in blue states b) promising to cure the ill c) calling out family members of the opposition d) and continuing to scare people about the draft.

P.S. Is anyone concerned that the Plame special prosecutor will give us the October Surprise? I am.

[MEG33]

"Still got to wonder if we are not being setup for another Kerry Comeback..."..LOL..That's the spirit!

SEE..NO COMPLACENCY!

[slimer]

Kerry's best moment in his entire campaign was in the first debate. Not so much because he did so well but because Bush wasn't on top of his game.

Kerry has the luxury of focusing 100% of his time and energy on campaigning. He completely shelved being a Senator. President Bush, besides campaigning, still has a job he takes seriously.

[Petronski]

I sense we might be racing up to the moment in time when Kerry utters those immortal dead-campaign watchwords: "The only poll that matters is on Election Day."

[Dont Mention the War]

I think I will vote early also. In case I happen to croak.

Not me. A vote via absentee ballot is a vote that can be conveniently "misplaced." A vote via a regular voting machine before election day allows for two whole weeks where anything can happen to that machine at night.

[deport]

It's not over yet...... Remember.

Kerry has a PLAN