Gallup Poll: Bush 52%, Kerry 44%

CNN, Late Edition

[JohnHuang2]

FROM DRUDGE:

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

end

190 posted on 10/17/2004 12:31:46 PM EDT by Petronski (I'm not always cranky.)

[Petronski]

FROM DRUDGE:

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

end

[LibLieSlayer]

Gallup... 65 year history in American polling.

Zogby... Arab terrorist symapthizer...dim activist... brother of coucil member of CAIR.

You decide.

LLS

[NavVet]

Mondale's a shoe in I tell you!!!

[Finalapproach29er]

This is the false-confidence ploy by the AP.

The election will be decided by turnout. Don't get a false sense of secrity.

[maine-iac7]

So call your local or state HQ and volunteer for the last 72 hours
****88
have a "desert potluck" party on poll day - this'll bring out even more helpers .........

[rjmeagle]

Can you do this newbie a favor and tell me what "IMHO" means?

Thanks!

[cake_crumb]

"...Alll these Polls smell 'dirty'."

Of course they are. The results have been swinging wildly all over the spectrum all year, particularly the first half. We've been pointing it out all year. It's not much different than 2000 and 2002 - or the 2003, CA recall.

It's been so blatant for the past 6-7 years it's kinda intellectually insulting...similar to Saddam getting "99% of the vote" in Iraq. Saddam's "election" was just a different way of rigging a poll to acheive the results he wanted to display to the world.

[Hischild]

That sounds a lot like the pollster who called me last week. Didn't recognize the name of who was doing the poll; simple questions on favorability and who I would vote for. Also asked about the influence the campaign advertisements had on my opinion. (Of course, I said none! My mind is made up!)

[syp24]

I'm gonna spam a couple posts at DU when gwb wins woo! woo! Anyone else registered at DU just for that moment? =)

Me! Me! I made my account weeks ago...it will be such fun! I'm thinking about making some more accounts to pass out to other freepers on election night.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

***....Sixteen days before Election Day, the president needs to scrape together at least 48 of the remaining 99 votes from tossup states to win re-election. Kerry needs 53 to stop him.

The AP analyzed poll data, both public and private, and interviewed analysts in key states in the days since the final debate Wednesday. While public and private polls suggested Bush may be gaining ground on Kerry, the consensus was that the race was remarkably close going into the last two full weeks of campaigning.

A surge by either candidate 3 or 4 percentage points in national polls could shift the eight states and the 99 electoral votes to one candidate, putting him on course for a 300-plus electoral romp. ....***

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1247280/posts

[flair2000]

IMHO=In my humble opinion.

[Nataku X]

I was being sarcastic.

[lancer]

President Bush, besides campaigning, still has a job he takes seriously.

Correct, and if you recall, Bush spent the whole day of the first debate handing out relief supplies while Kerry was getting a manicure.

[rjmeagle]

Thank you!!!

[SamAdams76]

Maybe I'm making too much of nothing but it seems that Kerry is almost always dressed casual on the campaign trail. This strikes me as a man who does not have much of a work ethic.

Kerry, through his two marriages to billionaires, never had to work a day in his adult life. He's set for life, regardless of how this election turns out. His senate career has been undistinguished, notable only by Kerry's absence to just about every key vote. (I do not know why the Bush campaign does not make more of this.)

I just don't think Kerry is a hard worker. He's always had it easy. He's always had plenty of time to ski, bike or windsurf at his wife's various mansions. Regardless of how I feel about Kerry politically, I just don't think he is equipped to handle a job as intense as the presidency.

[builder]

Add to your list.I am a Lawyer too, President Bush owns a timber company,I have a plan, I have a plan , I have a plan ,etc.

[gop_gene]

Is that a real picture?

That is a genuine picture, it was not photoshopped. Bernard Goldberg even comments about it in "Bias," and tells how W, on his way to his helicopter, had the book facing out toward the press corps' direction, so there was no way they could miss seeing it. Seems our W is a devious fellow, ain't he?

[Nataku X]

LOL

[Nataku X]

oh, of course, all those with disabilities will be cured! How could I have forgotten? :-)

[RWR8189]

Sorry for the very late Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[hoosiermama]

Bingo....One who has a real job and one who only pretends to have one....

Still think we should work like we're several points behind......(although I favor "LANDSLIDE for 'W'"!!!!.....It's the only way we won't hear their whining and groaning for years!)