Posted on 10/17/2004 9:06:04 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
Edited on 10/17/2004 9:35:17 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
FROM DRUDGE:
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President
Likely Registered
Voters Voters
Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon
Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004
Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?
For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.
Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President
Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings
Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush
Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views
Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views
Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40
end
We still have to treat it like we're behind.
HAHAHAHA ... Dean in on CNN claiming the SBV are funding Nader
Strategic Vision 10-17-04:
Bush 51% - Kerr 45%.
Actually, it was dated October 12, not October 17.
You keep saying this. What is your source for that?
I'm sure he does, though he will NEVER admit it. I would love someone in the MSM to ask him, "Mr. Kerry, you have criticized President Bush for being unable to admit to any mistakes. Polls taken after the last debate show that Americans, by a 2-1 margin, thought your reference to Mary Cheney in the last debate was 'inappropriate' and your poll numbers are now slipping. So far, you have refused to apologize for your remark. Are you now ready to call it a mistake, and perhaps apologize to put this issue behind your campaign? If not, what mistakes have you made in your campaign?" Of course, nobody in the MSM would dare ask him such a thing.
I just hope history doesn't record that it was the comment about Mary Cheney that cost Kerry the election. Even without that comment, I firmly believe that Bush would have the momentum after the debates. He connects with people. They can see that he is genuine and tells the truth. They can also see that Kerry is a smooth-talking flip-flopper who will simply morph into whatever he needs to at the moment to steal a vote. THAT is why Bush is gaining and Kerry is losing.
that gurgling sound you hear is W's foot on Kerry's neck
A Democrat Likely Voter is not even necessarily a LIVE voter.
Looking at the "RealClear Politics" plot of the presidential polls, I see two long term trendlines, punctuated by a hell of a lot of what I would refer to as "experimental error":
I don't believe that public opinion has been changing as much as these polls seem to suggest. The variation we see up through July looks like what engineers call "sample aliasing" or "jitter". Note that it falls well within the oft-claimed ±4 points of error. This is typical for data taken in noisy sampling environments; I've seen this kind of thing many times.
August and September are different. I've seen that kind of thing, too.
In my opinion, the polls were being deliberately gimmicked, in hopes of helping Kerry. In early August it looks as if there was an attempt to engineer a "post-convention bounce", but it failed and was abandoned after about two weeks. But I'm not absolutely certain about that.
The data for September, however, is clearly an anomaly. The data is much too consistent. Compare the amount of jitter present before September to the data during that month. There's no period before that of comparable length where the data was so stable.
The September data is also drastically outside of previous trends, with distinct stairsteps both at the beginning and at the end. And the data before the anomaly and after it for both Kerry and Bush matches the long term trendlines.
If I saw something like that in scientific or engineering data, I'd be asking a lot of very tough questions. My first suspicion would be that the test equipment was broken, but in the case of opinion polls there is no such thing. My second suspicion would be fraud.
In September, I think there was a deliberate attempt to depress Kerry's numbers, so as to set up an "October comeback". Of course, the goal was to engineer a bandwagon.
Public opinion isn't usually as ephemeral as these polls suggest that it is. But there can be long-term trends, and I find it interesting that such a thing actually does show through. It's quite striking how close some of the data falls to the long term trendlines which I've drawn in.
The reason the Democrats and the MSM are getting frantic is that they're losing.
I don't think there was active collusion among the pollsters, as such. The August anomaly has a clear starting edge, corresponding to the end of the Democratic Convention. But the anomaly fades out; there was no obvious moment the pollsters recognized as being when it should end.
The September anomaly begins just after the Republican convention, and ends with the first debate. That's why there's a sharp stairstep on both edges. No collusion was needed because everyone knew "the script" for September ("temporary Republican convention bounce") and for October ("Kerry comeback because of the debate").
Update: Chris writes:
Take a look of the sampling on the Newsweek polls starting in the middle of August and running through today. I think you'll find it interesting.
Of course, if you don't have time to dig into it, let me sum up: They oversampled Republicans through most of September, then switched back to slightly oversampling Dems, as they feel there are more Democrats than Republicans nationwide.
I figured the data needed a second look as soon as Bush opened that monster lead. There was just no way, no matter how much I'd like to think so.
Oh, and when did they switch back, you ask? Why, right after the first debate, my dear man! Need a point of inflection, after all, don't we?
I remember reading about that. At least they have to be given credit for showing what they did. I would guess the others did the same thing, but may not have admitted it anywhere that's publicly available.
You guys need to know that the polls we get and the ones that the candidates get are different. Theirs are more accurate and not biased since they need to know the truth of how they stand. Both the Bush polls and the Kerry polls have obviously shown Kerry behind most of the race and it is obvious because of the desperate way he is trying to win. If he was ahead, as he claimed, right from the start he would have no need for lies and deception especially when they are so glaring as the ones he keeps pulling. Bush will win and bigger than our polls suggest.
I hear it slams everyone as well.
But the loony left is far easier to lampoon. I think thats why some think the lefties bear the brunt of the jokes.
I cast my vote for Bush/Cheney in our Early election on Thursday. After I left the election commission building where the early voring is being held I was approached by an exit pollster. I told her what I thought of Kerry especially that he never bothered to visit the troops in Iraq or Afghanistan. Also that he never found it necessary to visit the wounded at Walter Reed, or any military hospital here in the states. And that he he has never found it necessary to comfort the widows, children,parents,brothers and sisters of those brave soldiers and marines who lost their lives in the war
Be SUSPICIOUS! Don't let up until Nov 4th!
Bush 52% 48%
Okay everyone - CONCENTRATE -
Keep this at least at this level - increase bush's lead to cover the fraud %
"What man can conceive, man can achieve."
Mantra; "Bush wins landslide...
"Bush wins landslide...
"Bush wins landslide...
I already heard it this morning from one of the Dem Party Hacks!!!
What was the JA in this poll?
It shows a man not in touch with the world around him and a man that needs to grow up
He is not a man people will trust with their lives
"Likely" voters are identified within the poll itself. They ask questions about casting vote in prior elections, how closely following the race, awareness of issues, intensity of support, etc. Based on the answer, the pollster determines how likely that person is to vote.
_________________________________________________________
I think the most interesting thing is to look at these results in light of the Newsweek poll released yesterday.
Newsweek polled October 14 and 15.
Bush up 6 (LV), Bush up 2(RV)
Gallup polled October 14, 15 and 16.
Bush up 8 (LV), Bush up 3 (RV)
AMAZING CONSISTENCEY IN THOSE TWO SIMULTANEOUS POLLS!
No. Liberal media doesn't get it. It's not just likability. It's substance over delivery. Kerry may (or may not) have better presentation skills, but with him Americans see fancy lipstick on an elequent, liberal pig. Bush is a messy faced angel.
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