Posted on 10/17/2004 9:06:04 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
Edited on 10/17/2004 9:35:17 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
FROM DRUDGE:
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President
Likely Registered
Voters Voters
Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon
Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004
Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?
For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.
Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President
Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings
Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush
Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views
Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views
Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40
end
I probably dont see much polling activity because Im in Tx
Got my ballot in Saturday's mail. It goes out in Monday's.
you forgot about all the crippled and handicapped that will
get out of wheelchairs and walk thanks to St John
The dems say it means nothing..Look at job approval ratings...If his job approval was 50% and Kerry showed at least 4 points ahead..wonder what they would say?
NO COMPLACENCY!
Hello again! It seems hard to believe that four years have gone by.
CM
Bush covers the margin ! Yyyyes !
Can we get the internals??
His only plan is to become president. After that he'll figure out what he's going to do based on a "global poll".
(But we're going for Bush anyway!)
Didn't I read (on an earlier thread - bleary-eyed - can't find it) the Dem's were whispering that this would be "the clincher" poll?
Generally, polls change the last few weeks but not necessarily tighten. It's a function of some major story. In this election, I suspect the October Surprise will go against Kerry as the Dems have long been reduced to spewing bald-faced lied, e.g., Dan Rather memos.
Honestly I am going to wait until next friday to decide f wheteher this is a polling glitch or not, both newsweek and gallup have had some wild swings as of late and its hard to judge them.
You're in Philly ?
We were in South Philly. I think the volunteers knocked on 2000 doors yesterday. We did great ! Lots of Republicans were at home (all Italian) and they were very firm and determined in their support of Bush. Also, when we were in delis ,customers would see our Bush/Cheney buttons and ask for bumper stickers and buttons. I think we have a good chance in Pennsylvania.
I was only yelled at ("Get the hell outta here !") by one toothless, very old Democrat lady. She was the closest I came to a dead person.
On this point AGREED!
I was polled in late September. They identified themselves, but it was a name I never heard: a subcontractor protecting the name of the pollster. The questions were fair and probed likeability, likelihood of voting, etc., but did not question issues. To me, it felt like the work of an old-line polling firm like Gallup or Harris.
That was the first time I had ever been polled in any regard, let alone a national election.
FYI, I suspect that a portion IS a polling glitch, but it does reflect a favorable trend.
But, but, the MSM ways we're losing. What are we to make of this?!?
/end sarcasm
is that a real photo or is it doctored?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.