Posted on 10/17/2004 7:10:33 AM PDT by tagawgrag
Edited on 10/17/2004 7:25:39 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Oct. 17, 2004 -- While the race for the presidency is close, George W. Bush has expectations working for him: Most likely voters think that in the end he'll win a second term.
Even though the race has been a dead heat for much of the past week, 56 percent in the latest ABC News tracking poll think Bush will win, compared with 33 percent who think Kerry will. That's a bit closer than in early September, before the debates revived Kerry's campaign, but expectations remain on Bush's side.
After a dead heat last Wednesday through Friday, the race today stands at 50 percent support for Bush, 46 percent for Kerry and two percent for Ralph Nader among likely voters in interviews Wednesday through Saturday. The last two days were better for Bush, who's taken to the road since Wednesday's debate with sharpened criticism of Kerry's domestic policies.
Women account for some of the slight movement in the race. Men still support Bush by double digits (13 points in this poll), while women are now supporting Kerry by a narrower 51-46 percent. Bush also is back to poaching slightly more Democrats (13 percent support him) than Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent). Still, independents, key swing voters, divide closely, 48 percent for Kerry, 45 percent for Bush.
One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives. That gives Bush a bigger base, while Kerry has to appeal beyond his base to more of the middle a sometimes tricky political straddle.
Nader
With more than 7,500 interviews of registered voters during the last 16 days, the ABC News tracking poll has accumulated enough of Nader's supporters to begin to analyze this small subgroup. Independents predominate: Fifty-nine percent of them are independents, 21 percent Democrats and 10 percent Republicans.
Fewer than might be expected, three in 10 Nader supporters, are liberals; 24 percent are conservatives and 40 percent moderates. They're younger overall -- half of Nader supporters are under age 40, compared with 40 percent of all registered voters.
As befits a younger group, Nader supporters also are less well off: Thirty-nine percent of Nader voters have incomes over $50,000, compared with 51 percent of all registered voters. This poll will produce further analysis of Nader supporters, narrowed to likely voters, as the tracking sample grows.
Expectations
Expectations of the outcome are partisan, but not exclusively so. Eighty-eight percent of Bush's supporters expect him to win; fewer of Kerry's, 67 percent, predict victory for their candidate.
Only in three core Kerry groups -- Democrats, liberals and blacks -- do majorities expect him to win. Another core Democratic group, non-religious Americans, divide evenly; and still another, single women, expect it to be Bush -- even though they themselves favor Kerry by more than a 20-point margin.
In the two big swing voter groups, 55 percent of independents expect Bush to win, as do 54 percent of white Catholics. A Bush victory is expected by six in 10 moveable voters, young voters and first-time voters alike, as well as by large majorities of Bush's core groups -- 75 percent of conservatives and evangelical white Protestants alike.
Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 13-16, 2004 among a random national sample of 2,401 adults, including 2,115 registered voters and 1,582 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and "The Washington Post" are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives. That gives Bush a bigger base, while Kerry has to appeal beyond his base to more of the middle a sometimes tricky political straddle.
Can anyone explain to me why, with numbers like these working in Bush's favor, the polls are as close as they are? I am genuinely confused here.
And also if he did so damn GREAT in the debates why hasnt he pulled ahead. Because the only reason he did do so good in the debates is because the MSM said he did. But we know different!
And also if he did so damn GREAT in the debates why hasnt he pulled ahead. Because the only reason he did do so good in the debates is because the MSM said he did. But we know different!
That and that all the Right wing Pundits and Talk Show hosts did EXACTLY what the DNC spin machine wanted them to do which is hyperventalate about Bush's style instead of keeping the focus firmly on what Kerry SAID.
Codswallop. The top issues among the libertarian wing of the Republican party are taxation, welfare statism and gun rights. Kerry fares very badly on those issues.
I think the 7% are the Buchananite "America First"-ers. They're receptive to Kerry's message of protectionism and peace-through-retreat, and overlook the rest.
I wish I was so confident. I woke up again at 3:30 am and started thinking about the election. I must really be a worry wart. I just keep thinking what a disaster it will be if Bush loses.
When I saw Zogby's last results I suspected something like what you say. He wants to maintain some shred of credibility for the future, so he doesn't want to predict a nail biter on, say, Nov. 24 and Bush up 8% on Nov. 31. So he's easing his way back to reality.
Just heard Pat Buchanan say how Bush starting to pull ahead in ZogBy poll.
And notice who the right did not make a target out of - Alexandra Kerry, who like it or not, was representing our country when she appeared in front of the whole world in that hideous see-through gown! (Shudder)
Gallup dont want to be wrong
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1247901/posts
We have to be pro-active to minimize the planned fraud.
The President has earned the votes of American citizens, and he will get a clear majority IF we do our part and GOTV and watch the polls on election day!
This is probably a dumb question, but when does Hawaii finish voting, and does anyone care if the election is called before they finish? Has anyone ever conceeded before they finish?
This is probably a dumb question, but when does Hawaii finish voting, and does anyone care if the election is called before they finish? Has anyone ever conceeded before they finish?
Jimmy Carter conceded before CALIFORNIA finished. Let's hope History repeates this year.
How can this be? According to the MSM Bush lost all three debates and Kerry has had a "surge" in the polls. At least that is what they were saying last week. Could they have been (dare I utter the words) lying to us?
"the left will be demoralized and their turnout will be dampened."
Conventional wisdom says this election hinges on turnout, and I believe it. The 'rats know they have a clunker on their hands so watch for outrageous attempts by dems to sweep the streets with booze, cigarettes, crackrocks, whatever it takes.
And pray for bad weather. Cold and snow or heavy rains across the midwest from Milwaukee to Chicago to Cleveland to Pittsburg would be most welcome. Keep the rats in their nests.
"Can anyone explain to me why, with numbers like these working in Bush's favor, the polls are as close as they are?"
On "Reliable" Sources today the pinheads Dana Milbank and Evan Meacham agreed that the media likes a close race. (CNN called the 52-44 Bush margin "a razor thin edge.")
The polls are almost all commissioned by the media.
I connect the dots.
No, I believe the BIG ELEPHANT in the room which is missed by pollsters is the EVANGELICAL VOTE. Karl Rove has been working almost exclusively on these voters thru ministers for four years. Rover has said 3-4 million evangelicals stayed home in 2000.
In 9 states, there is a state constitutional amendment on "Same Sex Marriage" on the ballot in November. I can't remember which states, but Michigan is one of them. Does anyone here know which states are involved. I believe most of them are in the midwest.
The Bush team is counting on evangelical Christians putting them over the top like they did for Reagan in 1980. I know for certain that the churches are putting out an unprecedented effort to encourage their flocks to get out their & register to vote and to "VOTE THEIR VALUES" and how important this presidential election is for people of faith. In code: VOTE FOR PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH.
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