[closet freeper]

Bush also is back to poaching slightly more Democrats (13 percent support him) than Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent). Still, independents, key swing voters, divide closely, 48 percent for Kerry, 45 percent for Bush.

One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters. About two in 10 call themselves liberals; substantially more, 34 percent in this poll, are conservatives. That gives Bush a bigger base, while Kerry has to appeal beyond his base to more of the middle a sometimes tricky political straddle.

Can anyone explain to me why, with numbers like these working in Bush's favor, the polls are as close as they are? I am genuinely confused here.

[MNJohnnie]

Can anyone explain to me why, with numbers like these working in Bush's favor, the polls are as close as they are? I am genuinely confused here.

Inertia. A large number of people just do not think about their vote. The Democrats could nominate a yellow dog and they would go to the polls and vote for it.

Inertia in a another sense. It takes time for the polls to catch up with reality. They do not do the state polls nearly as often, nor use the same methodology.

Basically campaign works by diffusion. Hundred of thousands of conversations going on around the country slow changing the media directed perception of Kerry/Bush. It takes time to fight off the multi billion dollar DNC direct Kerry ad campaign going on in the Dinosaur media.

[hinckley buzzard]

"Can anyone explain to me why, with numbers like these working in Bush's favor, the polls are as close as they are?"

On "Reliable" Sources today the pinheads Dana Milbank and Evan Meacham agreed that the media likes a close race. (CNN called the 52-44 Bush margin "a razor thin edge.")

The polls are almost all commissioned by the media.

I connect the dots.