Kerry is polling at 45%.40% say "It's time for someone new."
5% of Kerry voters apparently already think he's President.
Posted on 10/13/2004 9:31:00 AM PDT by RWR8189
Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Bush and Kerry in Toss-Up Race at 45% Apiece; Two In Five Undecided Voters Say ‘It’s Time for Someone New’ (40%); Final Debate Could Be Critical, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals
On the eve of the third and final presidential debate, President George W. Bush remains in a toss-up race with Senator John Kerry at 45% apiece, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1232 likely voters was conducted from Saturday through Monday (October 10- 12, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
|
Presidential Candidates % |
Oct 10-Oct 12 |
Oct 9-Oct 11 |
Oct 8- Oct 10 |
|
Republican - George W. Bush |
45 |
45 |
44 |
|
Democrat - John Kerry |
45 |
45 |
47 |
|
Independent - Ralph Nader |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
|
Libertarian - Michael Badnarik |
.5 |
.2 |
.1 |
|
Constitution - Michael Peroutka |
.2 |
.2 |
.2 |
|
Green - David Cobb |
.1 |
.1 |
.1 |
|
Other |
.8 |
.8 |
.9 |
|
Undecided |
7 |
7 |
6 |
Pollster John Zogby: "The two candidates go into the third and final debate tied. TIED!!! There is no major sub-group movement to report, but the undecided voters give us the real key to what is happening behind the scenes. Today's three-day track reveals that only 11% of the undecided voters feel that President Bush deserves to be re-elected. That is the lowest figure yet. Two in five -- 40%-- feel it is time for someone new and 49% are undecided about his future.
"The third debate is crucial.”
Zogby International conducted interviews of 1232 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 10 through October 12, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.
(10/13/2004)
I know. I know. It's a new word I just made up.
Zogby is such a phony. He calls it tied and then proceeds to point out his wonderful "data" that basically shows that Kerry has no way to lose, so why even poll any more Zogby.
I wonder who Zogby will show gaining momentum after the third debate, hmmm....
No
LMAO
And in 2002 Zogby had the worst record of all the major pollsters, missing the key races of SD, CO, GA, NC, and MO.
Please no more Zogby.The guy is a joke
I'm still trying to find out how he went from 46-45 Bush to 47-44 Kerry back to 45-45 all in three or four days
In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996…
Kinda like a fat thirty-year-old guy on the couch, talking about how athletic he was in high school.
I don't know what's going on with zogby I received his latest poll, and one of the questions was:
who would you vote for the tin man, who has no heart but a brain,
the scarecrow who has no brain but a heart, or something to that affect.
Quite frankly I thought the question was stupid, I'm also suspicious since 162 days before the election he declared kerry was going to win.
If Zogby says it's even that W must be way ahead. Did any of you take his last loaded poll? Question would you rather vote for the scarecrow with a heart but without a brain, or the tinman with a brain who doesn't have a heart? Then there was a series of nonsense loaded questions which would guarantee that people preferred Kerry. Zogby is full of it.
Why would the third debate mean anything at all if all the undecided voters supposedly won't vote for Bush because it is "time for someone new"? That doesn't sound like a group susceptible to a good debate performance. And exactly what does it mean that they are "undecided" in the first place if they are anti-Bush, that doesn't sound undecided to me? Zogby is getting himself into all sorts of rhetorical knots in his effort to make his results sound as good as possible for the liberals. Obviously the "undecideds" don't like Kerry, either.
Kerry is polling at 45%.40% say "It's time for someone new."
5% of Kerry voters apparently already think he's President.
Okay....never mind. NOW I see the 'undecided' part.
Zogby has gone from Kerry up by 3% to dead even. I will make a bold prediction: Tonight's debate won't make any difference, regardless of what pollsters or spinners say.
People have made up their minds. It will be close in popular vote, but the electoral margin will be easily won by Bush.
Oh REALLY?
http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
WHICH POLLSTERS WERE CLOSEST IN 2000? [10/12 05:41 PM] Kerry Spot reader John went back into the Hotline and found their list of the final polls by various organizations.The final result of the 2000 election: 48 percent for Gore, 48 percent for Bush, 4 percent other. Note that the DUI appeared to have a very late-breaking effect on Bush’s level of support.
Zogby underestimated Bush by 2, had Gore accurate.
Washington Post had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 3.
Pew underestimated Bush by 2; underestimated Gore by 5.
Newsweek underestimated Bush by 3; underestimated Gore by 5.
NBC/Wall Street Journal underestimated Bush by 1; underestimated Gore by 4.
Marist overestimated Bush by 1, underestimated Gore by 4.
Harris underestimated both Bush and Gore by one point.
Gallup had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 2.
Fox News underestimated both Bush and Gore by 5 percentage points each.
CBS News underestimated Bush by 4, Gore by 3.
Battleground overestimated Bush by 2, underestimated Gore by 3.
The raw data:A rundown of every final national poll conducted since 10/31. ^ indicates totals included the allocation of undecideds. Order is Bush, Gore, Nader. 1 Battleground (11/5-6; 1,000 LVs; +/- 3%)^ 50 45 4 2 Bullseye (10/31-11/2, 11/5; +/- 3.1%) 45 42 4 1 CBS News (11/4-6; 806 LVs; +/- 3%) 44 45 4 1 Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-31; 881 DVs; +/- 3.1%) 45 45 5 2 Fox News (11/1-2; 1,000 LVs; +/- 3%) 43 43 3 1 Gallup (11/5-6; 2,350 LVs; +/- 2%)^ 48 46 4 1 Harris (11/3-5; 1,348 LVs; +/- 3%) 47 47 5 0 ICR (11/1-5; 1,141 LVs; +/- 3%) 46 44 7 2 Marist Inst. (11/1-2; 623 LVs; +/- 4.5%) 49 44 2 1 NBC/WSJ (11/3-5; 1,026 LVs; +/- 3%) 47 44 3 2 Newsweek (10/31-11/2; 808 LVs; +/- 4%) 45 43 5 0 Pew (11/1-4; 1,307 LVs; +/- 3%) 46 43 3 1 TIPP (11/4-6; 1,292 LVs; +/- 2.8%) 48 46 4 2 Wash. Post (11/4-6; 1,801 LVs; +/- 2%) 48 45 3 1 Zogby Int'l (11/5-6; 1,200 LVs; +/- 3%)^ 46 48 5 UPDATE: Gerry Daly observes that one pollster ‘called’ over 29% of the 2002 Senate and/or Gubenatorial races for the wrong candidate, despite polling more races than all but one other company. The average for everybody else was getting about 13% of the races wrong, by comparison?This pollster? Zogby.Another pollster polled more 2002 races than any others, but only got one wrong. This pollster? Mason-Dixon. http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
I would choose the guy with a brain and no heart.
Will anyone be watching the debate except hardcore political junkies. The NY Yankees and Red Soxs game will draw a bigger audience along with the NL game.
The guy hit the target the last 2 elections.
Just more cases of I don't like the results of this poll, therefore it's crap.
Like this guy's going to risk and destroy his reputation over a perceived agenda?
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