Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Bush 45% Kerry 45%

Zogby International ^ | October 13, 2004

[RWR8189]

Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Bush and Kerry in Toss-Up Race at 45% Apiece; Two In Five Undecided Voters Say ‘It’s Time for Someone New’ (40%); Final Debate Could Be Critical, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals

 

On the eve of the third and final presidential debate, President George W. Bush remains in a toss-up race with Senator John Kerry at 45% apiece, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll.  The telephone poll of 1232 likely voters was conducted from Saturday through Monday (October 10- 12, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Presidential Candidates  %	Oct 10-Oct 12	Oct 9-Oct 11	Oct 8- Oct 10
Republican - George W. Bush	45	45	44
Democrat - John Kerry	45	45	47
Independent - Ralph Nader	1.5	1.6	1.7
Libertarian - Michael Badnarik	.5	.2	.1
Constitution - Michael Peroutka	.2	.2	.2
Green - David Cobb	.1	.1	.1
Other	.8	.8	.9
Undecided	7	7	6

Pollster John Zogby: "The two candidates go into the third and final debate tied. TIED!!! There is no major sub-group movement to report, but the undecided voters give us the real key to what is happening behind the scenes. Today's three-day track reveals that only 11% of the undecided voters feel that President Bush deserves to be re-elected. That is the lowest figure yet. Two in five -- 40%-- feel it is time for someone new and 49% are undecided about his future.

"The third debate is crucial.”

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1232 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 10 through October 12, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.

(10/13/2004)

[Hermann the Cherusker]

The Zog is hedging his bets.

[flevit]

NJ tied again

[ohioWfan]

I'm not paying any attention to any of the polls myself.

You should take a hint from me and not click on these threads in the first place..............it's much easier to ignore them that way. ;)

[Rokke]

And going off his past record would be valid if he hadn't changed all his methodology. There is no way to confirm the accuracy of his new methodology until the results of this election are known.

[rjmeagle]

This was a trick question: tin man/logic=Kerry
Scarecrow/heart=Bush

So if you picked logic, you chose Kerry. I took this poll myself and that's how I interpreted it.

[RWR8189]

From the figures I have seen, from pollingreport et al, the last Zogby poll in 2000 showed Gore 48% Bush 46% Nader 5%.

Having Bush under 2% is really no better than Bush up 2% when the actual difference between them on election day was only a few hundred thousand out of more than 100 million.

[Conspiracy Guy]

But if you don't let people know your ignoring the thread they will think you just don't care.

[Condor51]

Yep and if Dubya takes NJ, Kerry will commit hari-kari :-)

[Guillermo]

Well, ultimately my point is this:

Either believe every poll or none of the polls.

Like in 2000, every poll around here that shows Bush down is bashed, and the ones that show Bush up are praised.

[gnarledmaw]

I recently took one for Zogby where I was asked to choose Coke or Pepsi, and what my sign was.

[Ravi]

WooHoo! Just got my absentee ballot mailed to me from Florida. I can't wait to get it, check Bush/Cheney and sent it back to Florida. Same for my wife too. Hope our two votes make a difference. What a great day to be an American.

[gnarledmaw]

Im one of the folks polled by these guys. I dont know how the results can really be taken all that seriously. For example, there are sections where one is asked to choose what the most important problems facing the country are. There is a list of 20(ish) items from the leftists menu and nothing representing the right. That is to say, there is an option for "most important problem" to choose GUN CONTROL but nothing suggesting a pro-second position. There is a choice simply labeled SOCIAL SECURITY, if that option is chosen you know that Zogby is reporting it as a desire for "more and better" not "scrap the damned thing".

Even if some corrolation is attempted from the voter registration of the one being polled, those with yet a third position from those assigned by the Republicrats are even less likely to be represented correctly.

[West Coast Conservative]

This is from Zogby's FAQ on his site:

I've heard so many conflicting stories - is Zogby International a Republican pollster, a Democratic pollster or an Independent pollster?

"We are independent and nonpartisan. I am personally a Democrat, but the firm does a lot of work for media (like Reuters America, New York Post, St. Louis Post Dispatch, etc.) and we work for both parties."

Link

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[Quester]

Someone posted an article here yesterday from 2000. It said Zogby predicted Gore would win FL by 12!

12 what ... ?

[TNCMAXQ]

Zogby said Gore would win FL 51-39, or 12 PERCENT. :) Not even close.

[LS]

Ah! It's POA2 back again under a new trolling name. How nice to see you trying to defend Zogby for the zillionth time. Sorry, he's a schmuck and you're welcome to believe him, but he's (to quote Kerry) WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. Now, buh-bye.