Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Bush 45% Kerry 45%

Zogby International ^ | October 13, 2004

[RWR8189]

Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Bush and Kerry in Toss-Up Race at 45% Apiece; Two In Five Undecided Voters Say ‘It’s Time for Someone New’ (40%); Final Debate Could Be Critical, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals

 

On the eve of the third and final presidential debate, President George W. Bush remains in a toss-up race with Senator John Kerry at 45% apiece, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll.  The telephone poll of 1232 likely voters was conducted from Saturday through Monday (October 10- 12, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Presidential Candidates  %	Oct 10-Oct 12	Oct 9-Oct 11	Oct 8- Oct 10
Republican - George W. Bush	45	45	44
Democrat - John Kerry	45	45	47
Independent - Ralph Nader	1.5	1.6	1.7
Libertarian - Michael Badnarik	.5	.2	.1
Constitution - Michael Peroutka	.2	.2	.2
Green - David Cobb	.1	.1	.1
Other	.8	.8	.9
Undecided	7	7	6

Pollster John Zogby: "The two candidates go into the third and final debate tied. TIED!!! There is no major sub-group movement to report, but the undecided voters give us the real key to what is happening behind the scenes. Today's three-day track reveals that only 11% of the undecided voters feel that President Bush deserves to be re-elected. That is the lowest figure yet. Two in five -- 40%-- feel it is time for someone new and 49% are undecided about his future.

"The third debate is crucial.”

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1232 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 10 through October 12, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.

(10/13/2004)

[Sooth2222]

"Kinda like a fat thirty-year-old guy on the couch, talking about how athletic he was in high school. "

In High School I correctly guessed the number of marbles in the fishtank. I was correct to one-hundreth of one percent. Does that make me an expert like Zogby, too?

[RWR8189]

He did no better than any other major pollster in 2000, and he completely blew the 2002 midterms and the Dem primaries.

He has already come out and basically endorsed Kerry.

What reputation?

[DestroytheDemocrats]

"Question would you rather vote for the scarecrow with a heart but without a brain, or the tinman with a brain who doesn't have a heart?"

I think it is an interesting question. It makes you come down on one side or the other, what is more important, emotions or logic. I pick logic. Pretty easy.

[rhetorica]

One thing I've noticed. Immediately after a debate there seems to be a narrowing of the polls but as a few days pass they tend to swing more for Bush. So, let's get this last debate over with and see how things settle out.

Unless Bush comes up with a powerful zinger to Kerry tonight (or heaven forbid he messes up really badly) I don't see any reason to expect that the perceptions after this debate will be any different than for the other two. So let's get this over with!

[Tanniker Smith]

These poll numbers are troubling. I realize that Democrats are usually oversampled and that the snapshot should be a little more in the GOP's favor, BUT (and this is a big butt) turnout and overall voter fraud will favor the Dems by a point or two. They aren't going to root out all of the fraud -- and the attempts to do so will be challenged with calls that the GOP is trying to suppress the vote. (These cries should be ignored but they won't be entirely.)

TS

[cripplecreek]

Last night MSNBC ran a segment on polls and their sampling methods. They determined that Zogby samples a fairly large percentage of minorities. This would likely skew the numbers a point or two in the democrats favor.

[Ravi]

What have you done for me lately? Well, Zogby screwed up bigtime in his latest attempts at polling 2002, 2003 and even the 2004 special election between Herseth and Diedrich in SD. He's showing his age and partisanship. I don't trust his polls one iota.

[Conspiracy Guy]

I am sick of polls so I am ignoring this thread.

[rushmom]

He blew the offyear elections in 2002.

[Guillermo]

Few pollsters do well in local/Congressional races.

The last Zogby poll I saw in 2000 was 49-49.

[TNCMAXQ]

Someone posted an article here yesterday from 2000. It said Zogby predicted Gore would win FL by 12! So I am very mistrustful of Zogby, and esp. of his state polls. I think he is the only one showing Kerry ahead in NV.

[Irene Adler]

"I'm still trying to find out how he went from 46-45 Bush to 47-44 Kerry back to 45-45 all in three or four days."

I don't understand why people keep saying that. A different sample of people is polled each time. That's how. It's not at all mysterious or surprising. The different samples polled may produce similar or somewhat different results each time.

[Toidylop]

Please no more Zogby.The guy is a joke

I'm still trying to find out how he went from 46-45 Bush to 47-44 Kerry back to 45-45 all in three or four days

ditto. What has changed for the last few days? President Bush lost big time for last Friday debate according to the MSM!!! This makes no sense.

[ohioWfan]

LOL!

[Conspiracy Guy]

I am ignoring all replies on this thread too so don't get me started! ; )

[JennyG]

Zogby is playing games again.

[Rokke]

Since "hitting the target" (although he tied with 5 other polling organizations) in 2000, he has completely changed his polling procedures. His 2002 record ranked at the bottom of the pollsters, and this election remains to be seen. But his results in 1996 and 2000 are irrelevent to his current method of polling.

[Guillermo]

Like I said earlier, local/congressional races are particularly difficult to predict.

I'm going off of his past record.

I doubt he is going to risk his reputation and company just for a perceived agenda.

[Savage Rider]

They may be tied, but President Bush has the big mo because has moved up one point and Kerry has moved down two points. Kerry has to score a knock-out tonight to stay in the race.

[Condor51]

Zoby can kiss my patooty.

This is the only poll that counts: Oct. 13
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Bush 291 Kerry 228
New polls: AZ FL IA KS MI MN NH NJ NY OH OK OR PA RI TX WI
(this one finally has Bush UP in WI by 5%)