Posted on 09/23/2004 5:17:25 PM PDT by Libloather
Bush ahead in swing states, will defeat Kerry: Karl Rove
Thu Sep 23, 1:03 PM ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) - US President George W. Bush will defeat his Democratic rival, John Kerry, in the November 2 election because he is leading in the polls in the key US swing states, the president's top political adviser said in an interview.
Karl Rove, who has a Machiavellian reputation as a political mastermind, said in an interview with The Washington Times that many states "that were expected to be in close contention are floating out of contention" and into Bush's camp.
With the US electorate highly polarized and largely decided, there are only some 16 "battleground" states stretching from Oregon to Florida that are considered still up for grabs.
It takes 270 electoral votes of the 538 apportioned among the states and awarded in separate winner-take-all contests to win the election.
Rove told the newspaper that the swing states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia are already in the Bush camp. The Republicans must now hang on to Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio, four key states that he won in 2000.
Nationally, Bush leads Kerry by five or six points, Rove said, citing internal campaign polls.
However, he warned about the debates the candidates have scheduled.
Kerry "will be the best debater the president's ever faced," Rove told the Times. "We underestimate Kerry at our peril. He is very good at this; he's an aggressor. He goes in there flailing."
But Rove believes that the biggest problem the Democrats have "is not getting Kerry's people to dislike Bush; it's getting (them) to like Kerry."
"Hatred is a powerful emotion, but it is not a very durable emotion. You cannot maintain hatred in your heart for another person and keep it for a long period of time," Rove said.
The November election is shaping up to be just as close as the 2000 cliffhanger in which outgoing vice president Al Gore won the popular tally but lost to Bush by five electoral votes.
That is indeed true, and a major point. The polls rate as likely voters those who have voted in 3 of the last 4 (or 2 of the last 3) elections. These newly registered Dem voters are therefore not represented in those polls, but are very likely to vote in my view. They belong to groups that have been actively targeted for registration, and the Dem machines keep the infrastructure in place to physically take them to the polls, hold their hand, and make them vote the left way. Or worse, train these novice voters by completing their absentee ballots for them.
Would that be praising with a faint damn?
Woke me up! Rove speaks. I listen.
"Rove is trying to raise expectations for Kerry in the debates, making it easier for President Bush to win."
I think you get the blue ribbon Stonedog. Rove is just positioning Bush for the debates. Like the convention, lower the expectations on your guy and raise the expectations on the other guy.
The November election is shaping up to be just as close as the 2000 cliffhanger in which outgoing vice president Al Gore won the popular tally but lost to Bush by five electoral votes."
Idiot/Leftist journalist alert! ... Rove just said that Bush was ahead by 5 points, and you have this quote. There is NO evidence to suggest this race will be a cliffhanger. It *could* be, if Kerry sallies or Bush flags, but right now its not. A cliffhanger is simply unlikely.
"Hatred is a powerful emotion, but it is not a very durable emotion. You cannot maintain hatred in your heart for another person and keep it for a long period of time," Rove said."
I believe this is a key feature which will impact turnout.
"Definitely the Swiftvets could."
They have good reason. Bush-haters are essentially just sore losermen and don't have a good reason. I believe that makes a difference.
Karl has obviously never met my ex wife.
Its what students of poltical science call a "war of attrition."
"The November election is shaping up to be just as close as the 2000 cliffhanger in which outgoing vice president Al Gore won the popular tally but lost to Bush by five electoral votes."
"Confirmed by exactly nothing in the article."
That was my first thought as well. The reporter just as well ended the article with "add the dry ingredients last then heat the oven to 350 and bake for 30 minutes."
The Dems are registering everyone that's still breathing, and if those individuals don't go to the polls, then someone who's still walking will walk into the polling place and cast that person's vote. In PA, for example, you don't have to produce an ID at the polling place.
Classic, classic political move: Set up such high expectations for your opponent that only a total blowout by him will be seen as a "real win," while your guy gets a "real win" just by surviving.
This is such Campaign 101 stuff that Rove is probably saying it just as much to rattle Kerry's campaign staff as he is to play the news media like a violin.
The beauty is that Yaaaawn's ego is so large, he will allow it to happen. He thinks he's such a great debater, but he's not. Add to the fact that if he loses, the election is over!!
Pray for W and Our Troops
Me too. Although personally I have always believed strongly that we will win this election. I just don't like overconfidence by someone in Rove's position being publicly aired. We need to keep the urgency and fight alive. This does not seem like a good idea to me.
"The leftists wish they had their own Karl Rove."
The leftists wish they had a candidate with cojones. They hate us because we have a President with tue amachismo in the original, admirable sense of the word, while they are stuck with an epicene fop who has a butler for chrissakes and lives off a rich widow. (Real reason why the "arousal gap" has shifted to GW).
'craps have a serious case of political penis envy and Punk McAuliffe doesn't help.
No, but Clinton News Network is giving Bush the lead in Dist 2. The President was here on Thurs (Bangor) to inspire the campaign here.
That would be great if President Bush could win or even make it really competitive.... He lost Dist. 2 by 5,660 votes in 2000 and statewide by 33,335 thus Dist. 1 was his biggest loss at 27,675......
Maybe it will turn this time around.
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