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Numerical Poll Analysis: ABC/WaPost, ARG, CBS News, Fox News, Gallup, LA Times, Newsweek, Time.
Washington Post - Politics ^
| September 21, 2004
| dvwjr
Posted on 09/21/2004 5:20:54 PM PDT by dvwjr
Here are the latest political affiliation breakdowns for many of the major polls that have been published. This allows one to judge how much any variance in the political affiliation of the pool of poll respondents affects the final published poll results. It will allow for a comparison to those future polls which will be released in the next 42 days. Updated figures are for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Los Angeles Times, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI sponsored polls of Registered voters for a three-way race (Bush vs Kerry vs Nader) in the presidential contest.
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dvwjr
1
posted on
09/21/2004 5:20:54 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: 1stMarylandRegiment; 2nd Amendment; 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub; ableChair; admiralsn; AFPhys; ...
Here are the latest political affiliation breakdowns for many of the major polls that have been published. This allows one to judge how much any variance in the political affiliation of the pool of poll respondents affects the final published poll results. It will allow for a comparison to those future polls which will be released in the next 42 days. Updated figures are for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Los Angeles Times, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI sponsored polls of Registered voters for a three-way race
(Bush vs Kerry vs Nader) in the presidential contest.
Calculations for the post-convention 'bounce' for Bush are now listed for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI . Remember that 'lead' is different from 'bounce'. A 'lead' is how far candidate A is ahead of candidate B in a current poll. A 'bounce' is defined as the difference between: the change in candidate A's poll results in two successive polls and the change in candidate B's poll results in the same two successive polls.
If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.
Included at the top of this table are the results of the year 2000 Voter News Service exit polling data for partisan affiliation. The overall breakdown of the Republican, Democrat and Independent voters and their individual candidate preference breakdowns (Bush vs Gore vs Nader vs Other) are shown to allow comparison to current polls and the upcoming year 2004 exit polls and final results.
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Revision Date: |
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09/21/2004 |
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United States Presidential Election 2000 |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Gore |
Nader |
Other |
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105,417,258 Actual Voters |
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VNS Calculated (MoE ±0.85%) |
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Actual Results |
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November 7, 2000 |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
13,157 V |
47.87% |
48.38% |
2.73% |
1.02% |
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2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for: |
Bush |
90.51% |
11.09% |
46.51% |
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2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for: |
Gore |
8.67% |
85.88% |
44.93% |
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2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for: |
Nader |
0.81% |
1.84% |
6.48% |
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2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for: |
Other |
0.01% |
1.19% |
2.07% |
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Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
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ABCNews/Washington Post Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Neither |
Wont vote |
No opinion |
All polls Registered Voters |
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June 17-20, 2004 |
100.0% |
29.8% |
37.5% |
32.7% |
1,015 RV |
43.74% |
48.47% |
5.81% |
0.30% |
0.69% |
0.39% |
0.59% |
July 22-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.1% |
34.4% |
32.5% |
974 RV |
47.51% |
46.49% |
2.52% |
0.18% |
1.49% |
0.49% |
1.32% |
July 30- August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
28.6% |
38.7% |
32.7% |
940 RV |
44.26% |
49.57% |
2.13% |
0.32% |
1.28% |
0.53% |
1.91% |
August 26-29, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.9% |
31.7% |
35.3% |
945 RV |
48.47% |
46.77% |
1.59% |
0.11% |
0.95% |
0.42% |
1.69% |
September 6-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.2% |
30.5% |
34.3% |
952 RV |
50.21% |
43.59% |
2.00% |
0.42% |
1.79% |
0.32% |
1.68% |
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July 30-August 1 minus July 22-25 |
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-4.5% |
4.3% |
0.2% |
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-3.25% |
3.08% |
-0.39% |
0.14% |
-0.21% |
0.04% |
0.59% |
ABC/WaPost Kerry Convention Bounce: |
6.34% |
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September 6-8 minus August 26-29 |
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2.3% |
-1.3% |
-1.0% |
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1.74% |
-3.18% |
0.41% |
0.31% |
0.83% |
-0.11% |
-0.01% |
ABC/WaPost Bush Convention Bounce: |
4.92% |
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ARG Poll Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
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All polls Registered Voters |
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July 1-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.2% |
38.8% |
26.0% |
773 RV |
44.24% |
47.35% |
2.59% |
5.82% |
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July 30-August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.1% |
37.1% |
27.8% |
776 RV |
44.97% |
48.58% |
2.06% |
4.38% |
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August 30-September 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.6% |
37.1% |
28.3% |
1,014 RV |
44.67% |
45.96% |
2.96% |
6.41% |
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July 30-August 1 minus July 1-3 |
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-0.1% |
-1.7% |
1.8% |
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0.73% |
1.23% |
-0.53% |
-1.44% |
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ARG Kerry Convention Bounce: |
0.50% |
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Aug 30-Sep 1 minus July 3--Aug 1 |
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-0.4% |
0.0% |
0.5% |
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-0.30% |
-2.63% |
0.90% |
2.03% |
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ARG Bush Convention Bounce: |
2.33% |
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CBS News Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Wont Vote |
Depends |
Do not know |
All polls Registered Voters |
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May 20-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
29.0% |
34.0% |
37.0% |
883 RV |
40.54% |
46.55% |
5.21% |
0.68% |
1.59% |
0.57% |
4.87% |
July 11-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
27.3% |
34.2% |
38.5% |
789 RV |
41.57% |
45.25% |
5.20% |
0.38% |
1.27% |
1.52% |
4.82% |
July 30 - August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.3% |
37.5% |
27.1% |
837 RV |
42.51% |
48.39% |
2.99% |
0.01% |
0.37% |
1.19% |
4.54% |
August 15-18, 20004 |
100.0% |
36.4% |
39.6% |
24.0% |
792 RV |
45.08% |
46.46% |
1.01% |
0.13% |
0.63% |
1.01% |
5.68% |
September 6-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.4% |
37.7% |
27.9% |
889 RV |
48.71% |
42.41% |
1.35% |
0.34% |
0.67% |
1.01% |
5.51% |
September 12-16, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.8% |
33.2% |
28.0% |
1,048 RV |
49.90% |
40.55% |
2.96% |
0.38% |
1.15% |
1.05% |
4.01% |
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July 11-15 minus July 30-August 1, 2004 |
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8.1% |
3.3% |
-11.4% |
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0.94% |
3.14% |
-2.21% |
-0.37% |
-0.90% |
-0.33% |
-0.28% |
CBS News Kerry Convention Bounce: |
2.20% |
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September 6-8 minus August 15-18 |
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-1.9% |
-2.0% |
3.9% |
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3.63% |
-4.06% |
0.34% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
-0.17% |
CBS News Bush Convention Bounce: |
7.69% |
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FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Wont Vote |
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All polls Registered or Likely Voters |
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July 20-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.3% |
41.2% |
22.4% |
900 RV |
43.11% |
42.44% |
3.56% |
10.33% |
0.56% |
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August 3-4, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.6% |
42.1% |
22.3% |
900 RV |
41.78% |
46.44% |
2.44% |
8.78% |
0.56% |
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August 24-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.6% |
36.5% |
29.9% |
1,000 LV |
42.51% |
43.99% |
3.50% |
9.51% |
0.49% |
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September 7-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.1% |
41.5% |
22.4% |
1,000 LV |
46.60% |
43.40% |
2.70% |
7.10% |
0.20% |
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August 3-4, 2004 minus July 20-21 |
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-0.8% |
0.9% |
-0.1% |
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-1.33% |
4.00% |
-1.11% |
-1.56% |
0.00% |
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FoxNews Kerry Convention Bounce: |
5.33% |
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September 7-8 minus August 24-25 |
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2.5% |
5.0% |
-7.5% |
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4.09% |
-0.59% |
-0.80% |
-2.41% |
-0.29% |
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FoxNews Bush Convention Bounce: |
4.68% |
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Gallup Poll Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
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All polls Registered Voters |
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May 7-9, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.2% |
34.1% |
33.8% |
877 RV |
41.39% |
46.41% |
7.41% |
4.79% |
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May 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.3% |
36.5% |
28.2% |
883 RV |
44.17% |
46.09% |
5.78% |
3.96% |
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June 3-6, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.5% |
37.7% |
26.8% |
896 RV |
42.41% |
45.42% |
7.37% |
4.80% |
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June 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.1% |
37.6% |
28.2% |
882 RV |
44.90% |
46.49% |
5.56% |
3.06% |
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July 8-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.7% |
37.6% |
27.7% |
891 RV |
41.53% |
50.28% |
3.70% |
4.49% |
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July 19-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
41.3% |
37.6% |
21.1% |
878 RV |
43.39% |
47.38% |
5.01% |
4.21% |
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July 30-August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.6% |
39.2% |
21.2% |
916 RV |
47.71% |
47.38% |
2.29% |
2.62% |
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August 9-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.9% |
38.2% |
21.9% |
897 RV |
46.04% |
44.93% |
4.91% |
4.12% |
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August 23-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
40.6% |
37.7% |
21.7% |
876 RV |
46.46% |
46.46% |
3.54% |
3.54% |
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September 3-5, 2004 |
100.0% |
40.0% |
38.8% |
21.3% |
926 RV |
48.38% |
46.22% |
3.56% |
1.84% |
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September 13-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.8% |
33.0% |
28.1% |
935 RV |
50.00% |
42.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
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July 30-August 1 minus July 19-21 |
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-1.7% |
1.6% |
0.1% |
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4.31% |
0.00% |
-2.72% |
-1.59% |
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Gallup Kerry Convention Bounce: |
-4.31% |
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September 3-5 minus August 23-25 |
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-0.7% |
1.1% |
-0.4% |
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1.92% |
-0.24% |
0.02% |
-1.70% |
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Gallup Bush Convention Bounce: |
2.16% |
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Los Angeles Times Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other/UDec |
Dont Know |
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All polls Registered Voters |
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June 5-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
25.9% |
38.0% |
36.1% |
1,230 RV |
42.49% |
48.35% |
4.14% |
0.51% |
4.51% |
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July 17-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
31.7% |
40.9% |
27.3% |
1,529 RV |
43.56% |
46.37% |
3.07% |
0.39% |
6.61% |
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August 21-24, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.0% |
41.0% |
27.0% |
1,352 RV |
46.60% |
44.08% |
3.40% |
0.59% |
5.33% |
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August 21-24 minus July 17-21 |
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0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
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3.04% |
-2.29% |
0.33% |
0.20% |
-1.28% |
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LA Times Kerry Convention Bounce: |
-5.33% |
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Newsweek/PSRAI Poll Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
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All polls Registered Voters |
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March 18-19, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.9% |
35.1% |
29.0% |
838 RV |
45.47% |
43.44% |
5.49% |
5.61% |
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May 13-14, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.2% |
36.9% |
30.9% |
832 RV |
42.31% |
43.27% |
5.41% |
9.01% |
|
|
|
July 8-9, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.4% |
35.6% |
30.0% |
1,001 RV |
44.36% |
47.35% |
2.70% |
5.59% |
|
|
|
July 29-30, 2004 |
100.0% |
29.0% |
38.5% |
32.5% |
1,010 RV |
41.78% |
49.41% |
3.07% |
5.74% |
|
|
|
September 2-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.6% |
32.3% |
33.1% |
1,008 RV |
51.88% |
41.07% |
3.47% |
3.57% |
|
|
|
September 9-10, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.7% |
31.3% |
33.0% |
1,003 RV |
48.55% |
43.47% |
2.39% |
5.58% |
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|
July 29-30 minus July 8-9 |
|
-5.4% |
2.9% |
2.5% |
|
-2.57% |
2.05% |
0.37% |
0.15% |
|
|
|
Newsweek Kerry Convention Bounce: |
4.63% |
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|
September 2-3 minus July 29-30, 2004 |
|
5.6% |
-6.3% |
0.7% |
|
10.10% |
-8.33% |
0.40% |
-2.17% |
|
|
|
Newsweek Bush Convention Bounce: |
18.44% |
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Time/SRBI Poll Results |
|
Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Do not know |
Refused |
|
All polls Registered Voters |
|
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|
July 20-22, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.0% |
35.0% |
32.0% |
1,059 RV |
43.00% |
46.00% |
5.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
1.00% |
|
August 3-5, 2004 |
100.0% |
28.0% |
36.0% |
36.0% |
1,001 RV |
41.00% |
45.00% |
6.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
2.00% |
|
August 24-26, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.0% |
32.0% |
35.0% |
1,026 RV |
46.00% |
42.00% |
6.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
2.00% |
|
August 31-September 2, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.0% |
32.0% |
32.0% |
1,128 RV |
49.00% |
39.00% |
5.00% |
0.00% |
4.00% |
2.00% |
|
September 7-9, 2004 |
100.0% |
31.0% |
32.0% |
37.0% |
1,013 RV |
50.00% |
39.00% |
4.00% |
0.00% |
5.00% |
1.00% |
|
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|
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|
|
August 3-5 minus July 20-22 |
|
-5.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
|
-2.00% |
-1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
-1.00% |
1.00% |
|
Time Kerry Convention Bounce: |
1.00% |
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|
August 31-September 2 minus August 24-26 |
|
3.0% |
0.0% |
-3.0% |
|
3.0% |
-3.0% |
-1.0% |
0.0% |
-1.0% |
0.0% |
|
Time Bush Convention Bounce: |
6.00% |
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Note: All R/D/I numbers published by TIME/SRBI |
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Notes: In some cases polling organizations will have more than the three catagories of partisan political affiliation (Rep/Dem/Ind). When such cases exist, those 'Others' have been added to the 'Independent' catagory for comparison purposes.
I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
2
posted on
09/21/2004 5:23:14 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
Could you please add me to your ping list. I couldn't remember your FReeper name to see your last couple of posts. Great work!
To: dvwjr
To: dvwjr
I find it interesting that no breakdown is available for the Pew and Harris polls, especially since they are the major ones showing a horserace. Enquiring minds might be led to speculate . . . .
To: dvwjr
I'd like to be on your ping list also.
Great work there !
6
posted on
09/21/2004 5:28:11 PM PDT
by
WoodstockCat
(DNC and John Kerry: Forgers R' Us)
To: Steve_Stifler
If the polling organizations do not publish such information as do ARG, Time it is a bit time consuming to 'back-into' the results as I have attempted to do...
dvwjr
7
posted on
09/21/2004 5:31:08 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
Please add me to your ping list.
8
posted on
09/21/2004 5:32:15 PM PDT
by
Dolphy
(Support swiftvets.com)
To: dvwjr
Excellent. Add me to the ping list.
I was surprised at the high number of Republicans in the polls. Of course in most of them the breakdown of Rep vs. Dem determined the outcome.
I do think in many instances it shows where the Independents are falling: for Bush.
9
posted on
09/21/2004 5:34:22 PM PDT
by
Fledermaus
(If Putin brings back state controlled a media-propaganda machine, Rather will be his first choice.)
To: dvwjr
10
posted on
09/21/2004 5:38:56 PM PDT
by
MistyCA
To: dvwjr
This is great, thanks for pinging me.
To: dvwjr
To: MistyCA; dvwjr
You are a credit - again, a gentleman and a true scholar.
To: dvwjr
14
posted on
09/21/2004 6:25:52 PM PDT
by
Salvation
(†With God all things are possible.†)
To: dvwjr
So the Bush bounce is just polling more Republicans?
15
posted on
09/21/2004 6:34:41 PM PDT
by
byteback
To: dvwjr
The last few Gallup polls seem to be heavily weighted towards Republicans in their sample. Could this explain the big lead for W?
16
posted on
09/21/2004 6:37:58 PM PDT
by
Recovering_Democrat
(I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
To: dvwjr
17
posted on
09/21/2004 6:39:13 PM PDT
by
MeekOneGOP
(There is only one GOOD 'RAT: one that has been voted OUT of POWER !! Straight ticket GOP!)
To: dvwjr
Thanks for the ping, please keep me on the list:)
To: dvwjr
19
posted on
09/21/2004 7:48:21 PM PDT
by
HawaiianGecko
(Member of the Pajamanistas for over a whole month now!)
To: dvwjr
20
posted on
09/21/2004 9:26:08 PM PDT
by
Heff
("Liberty is not America's gift to the world, it's the Almighty's gift to humanity" GW Bush 4/12/04)
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