Numerical Poll Analysis: ABC/WaPost, ARG, CBS News, Fox News, Gallup, LA Times, Newsweek, Time.

Washington Post - Politics ^ | September 21, 2004 | dvwjr

[dvwjr]

Here are the latest political affiliation breakdowns for many of the major polls that have been published. This allows one to judge how much any variance in the political affiliation of the pool of poll respondents affects the final published poll results. It will allow for a comparison to those future polls which will be released in the next 42 days. Updated figures are for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Los Angeles Times, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI sponsored polls of Registered voters for a three-way race (Bush vs Kerry vs Nader) in the presidential contest.

[dvwjr]

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dvwjr

[dvwjr]

Here are the latest political affiliation breakdowns for many of the major polls that have been published. This allows one to judge how much any variance in the political affiliation of the pool of poll respondents affects the final published poll results. It will allow for a comparison to those future polls which will be released in the next 42 days. Updated figures are for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Los Angeles Times, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI sponsored polls of Registered voters for a three-way race (Bush vs Kerry vs Nader) in the presidential contest.

Calculations for the post-convention 'bounce' for Bush are now listed for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI . Remember that 'lead' is different from 'bounce'. A 'lead' is how far candidate A is ahead of candidate B in a current poll. A 'bounce' is defined as the difference between: the change in candidate A's poll results in two successive polls and the change in candidate B's poll results in the same two successive polls.

If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.

Included at the top of this table are the results of the year 2000 Voter News Service exit polling data for partisan affiliation. The overall breakdown of the Republican, Democrat and Independent voters and their individual candidate preference breakdowns (Bush vs Gore vs Nader vs Other) are shown to allow comparison to current polls and the upcoming year 2004 exit polls and final results.

			Revision  Date:
			09/21/2004
United  States  Presidential  Election  2000		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Gore	Nader	Other
105,417,258  Actual  Voters
		VNS  Calculated  (MoE  ±0.85%)				Actual  Results
November  7,  2000		34.37%	38.86%	26.77%	13,157  V	47.87%	48.38%	2.73%	1.02%
2000  VNS  Exit  Data  -  Voted  for:	Bush	90.51%	11.09%	46.51%
2000  VNS  Exit  Data  -  Voted  for:	Gore	8.67%	85.88%	44.93%
2000  VNS  Exit  Data  -  Voted  for:	Nader	0.81%	1.84%	6.48%
2000  VNS  Exit  Data  -  Voted  for:	Other	0.01%	1.19%	2.07%
	Total	100%	100%	100%
ABCNews/Washington  Post  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Neither	Wont  vote	No  opinion
All  polls  Registered  Voters
June  17-20,  2004	100.0%	29.8%	37.5%	32.7%	1,015  RV	43.74%	48.47%	5.81%	0.30%	0.69%	0.39%	0.59%
July  22-25,  2004	100.0%	33.1%	34.4%	32.5%	974  RV	47.51%	46.49%	2.52%	0.18%	1.49%	0.49%	1.32%
July  30-  August  1,  2004	100.0%	28.6%	38.7%	32.7%	940  RV	44.26%	49.57%	2.13%	0.32%	1.28%	0.53%	1.91%
August  26-29,  2004	100.0%	32.9%	31.7%	35.3%	945  RV	48.47%	46.77%	1.59%	0.11%	0.95%	0.42%	1.69%
September  6-8,  2004	100.0%	35.2%	30.5%	34.3%	952  RV	50.21%	43.59%	2.00%	0.42%	1.79%	0.32%	1.68%
July  30-August  1  minus  July  22-25		-4.5%	4.3%	0.2%		-3.25%	3.08%	-0.39%	0.14%	-0.21%	0.04%	0.59%
ABC/WaPost  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	6.34%
September  6-8  minus  August  26-29		2.3%	-1.3%	-1.0%		1.74%	-3.18%	0.41%	0.31%	0.83%	-0.11%	-0.01%
ABC/WaPost  Bush  Convention  Bounce:	4.92%
ARG  Poll  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All  polls  Registered  Voters
July  1-3,  2004	100.0%	35.2%	38.8%	26.0%	773  RV	44.24%	47.35%	2.59%	5.82%
July  30-August  1,  2004	100.0%	35.1%	37.1%	27.8%	776  RV	44.97%	48.58%	2.06%	4.38%
August  30-September  1,  2004	100.0%	34.6%	37.1%	28.3%	1,014  RV	44.67%	45.96%	2.96%	6.41%
July  30-August  1  minus  July  1-3		-0.1%	-1.7%	1.8%		0.73%	1.23%	-0.53%	-1.44%
ARG  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	0.50%
Aug  30-Sep  1  minus  July  3--Aug  1		-0.4%	0.0%	0.5%		-0.30%	-2.63%	0.90%	2.03%
ARG  Bush  Convention  Bounce:	2.33%
CBS  News  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont  Vote	Depends	Do  not  know
All  polls  Registered  Voters
May  20-23,  2004	100.0%	29.0%	34.0%	37.0%	883  RV	40.54%	46.55%	5.21%	0.68%	1.59%	0.57%	4.87%
July  11-15,  2004	100.0%	27.3%	34.2%	38.5%	789  RV	41.57%	45.25%	5.20%	0.38%	1.27%	1.52%	4.82%
July  30  -  August  1,  2004	100.0%	35.3%	37.5%	27.1%	837  RV	42.51%	48.39%	2.99%	0.01%	0.37%	1.19%	4.54%
August  15-18,  20004	100.0%	36.4%	39.6%	24.0%	792  RV	45.08%	46.46%	1.01%	0.13%	0.63%	1.01%	5.68%
September  6-8,  2004	100.0%	34.4%	37.7%	27.9%	889  RV	48.71%	42.41%	1.35%	0.34%	0.67%	1.01%	5.51%
September  12-16,  2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.2%	28.0%	1,048  RV	49.90%	40.55%	2.96%	0.38%	1.15%	1.05%	4.01%
July  11-15  minus  July  30-August  1,  2004		8.1%	3.3%	-11.4%		0.94%	3.14%	-2.21%	-0.37%	-0.90%	-0.33%	-0.28%
CBS  News  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	2.20%
September  6-8  minus  August  15-18		-1.9%	-2.0%	3.9%		3.63%	-4.06%	0.34%	0.21%	0.04%	0.00%	-0.17%
CBS  News  Bush  Convention  Bounce:	7.69%
FoxNews/Opinion  Dynamics  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont  Vote
All  polls  Registered  or  Likely  Voters
July  20-21,  2004	100.0%	36.3%	41.2%	22.4%	900  RV	43.11%	42.44%	3.56%	10.33%	0.56%
August  3-4,  2004	100.0%	35.6%	42.1%	22.3%	900  RV	41.78%	46.44%	2.44%	8.78%	0.56%
August  24-25,  2004	100.0%	33.6%	36.5%	29.9%	1,000  LV	42.51%	43.99%	3.50%	9.51%	0.49%
September  7-8,  2004	100.0%	36.1%	41.5%	22.4%	1,000  LV	46.60%	43.40%	2.70%	7.10%	0.20%
August  3-4,  2004  minus  July  20-21		-0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%		-1.33%	4.00%	-1.11%	-1.56%	0.00%
FoxNews  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	5.33%
September  7-8  minus  August  24-25		2.5%	5.0%	-7.5%		4.09%	-0.59%	-0.80%	-2.41%	-0.29%
FoxNews  Bush  Convention  Bounce:	4.68%
Gallup  Poll  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All  polls  Registered  Voters
May  7-9,  2004	100.0%	32.2%	34.1%	33.8%	877  RV	41.39%	46.41%	7.41%	4.79%
May  21-23,  2004	100.0%	35.3%	36.5%	28.2%	883  RV	44.17%	46.09%	5.78%	3.96%
June  3-6,  2004	100.0%	35.5%	37.7%	26.8%	896  RV	42.41%	45.42%	7.37%	4.80%
June  21-23,  2004	100.0%	34.1%	37.6%	28.2%	882  RV	44.90%	46.49%	5.56%	3.06%
July  8-11,  2004	100.0%	34.7%	37.6%	27.7%	891  RV	41.53%	50.28%	3.70%	4.49%
July  19-21,  2004	100.0%	41.3%	37.6%	21.1%	878  RV	43.39%	47.38%	5.01%	4.21%
July  30-August  1,  2004	100.0%	39.6%	39.2%	21.2%	916  RV	47.71%	47.38%	2.29%	2.62%
August  9-11,  2004	100.0%	39.9%	38.2%	21.9%	897  RV	46.04%	44.93%	4.91%	4.12%
August  23-25,  2004	100.0%	40.6%	37.7%	21.7%	876  RV	46.46%	46.46%	3.54%	3.54%
September  3-5,  2004	100.0%	40.0%	38.8%	21.3%	926  RV	48.38%	46.22%	3.56%	1.84%
September  13-15,  2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.0%	28.1%	935  RV	50.00%	42.00%	4.00%	4.00%
July  30-August  1  minus  July  19-21		-1.7%	1.6%	0.1%		4.31%	0.00%	-2.72%	-1.59%
Gallup  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	-4.31%
September  3-5  minus  August  23-25		-0.7%	1.1%	-0.4%		1.92%	-0.24%	0.02%	-1.70%
Gallup  Bush  Convention  Bounce:	2.16%
Los  Angeles  Times  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other/UDec	Dont  Know
All  polls  Registered  Voters
June  5-8,  2004	100.0%	25.9%	38.0%	36.1%	1,230  RV	42.49%	48.35%	4.14%	0.51%	4.51%
July  17-21,  2004	100.0%	31.7%	40.9%	27.3%	1,529  RV	43.56%	46.37%	3.07%	0.39%	6.61%
August  21-24,  2004	100.0%	32.0%	41.0%	27.0%	1,352  RV	46.60%	44.08%	3.40%	0.59%	5.33%
August  21-24  minus  July  17-21		0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%		3.04%	-2.29%	0.33%	0.20%	-1.28%
LA  Times  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	-5.33%
Newsweek/PSRAI  Poll  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All  polls  Registered  Voters
March  18-19,  2004	100.0%	35.9%	35.1%	29.0%	838  RV	45.47%	43.44%	5.49%	5.61%
May  13-14,  2004	100.0%	32.2%	36.9%	30.9%	832  RV	42.31%	43.27%	5.41%	9.01%
July  8-9,  2004	100.0%	34.4%	35.6%	30.0%	1,001  RV	44.36%	47.35%	2.70%	5.59%
July  29-30,  2004	100.0%	29.0%	38.5%	32.5%	1,010  RV	41.78%	49.41%	3.07%	5.74%
September  2-3,  2004	100.0%	34.6%	32.3%	33.1%	1,008  RV	51.88%	41.07%	3.47%	3.57%
September  9-10,  2004	100.0%	35.7%	31.3%	33.0%	1,003  RV	48.55%	43.47%	2.39%	5.58%
July  29-30  minus  July  8-9		-5.4%	2.9%	2.5%		-2.57%	2.05%	0.37%	0.15%
Newsweek  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	4.63%
September  2-3  minus  July  29-30,  2004		5.6%	-6.3%	0.7%		10.10%	-8.33%	0.40%	-2.17%
Newsweek  Bush  Convention  Bounce:	18.44%
Time/SRBI  Poll  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Do  not  know	Refused
All  polls  Registered  Voters
July  20-22,  2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.0%	32.0%	1,059  RV	43.00%	46.00%	5.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%
August  3-5,  2004	100.0%	28.0%	36.0%	36.0%	1,001  RV	41.00%	45.00%	6.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%
August  24-26,  2004	100.0%	33.0%	32.0%	35.0%	1,026  RV	46.00%	42.00%	6.00%	0.00%	5.00%	2.00%
August  31-September  2,  2004	100.0%	36.0%	32.0%	32.0%	1,128  RV	49.00%	39.00%	5.00%	0.00%	4.00%	2.00%
September  7-9,  2004	100.0%	31.0%	32.0%	37.0%	1,013  RV	50.00%	39.00%	4.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%
August  3-5  minus  July  20-22		-5.00%	1.00%	4.00%		-2.00%	-1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	-1.00%	1.00%
Time  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	1.00%
August  31-September  2  minus  August  24-26		3.0%	0.0%	-3.0%		3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%	0.0%	-1.0%	0.0%
Time  Bush  Convention  Bounce:	6.00%
Note:  All  R/D/I  numbers  published  by  TIME/SRBI

Notes: In some cases polling organizations will have more than the three catagories of partisan political affiliation (Rep/Dem/Ind). When such cases exist, those 'Others' have been added to the 'Independent' catagory for comparison purposes.

I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.

Hope this helps...

dvwjr

[BreitbartSentMe]

Could you please add me to your ping list. I couldn't remember your FReeper name to see your last couple of posts. Great work!

[capitan_refugio]

Nice work!

[Steve_Stifler]

I find it interesting that no breakdown is available for the Pew and Harris polls, especially since they are the major ones showing a horserace. Enquiring minds might be led to speculate . . . .

[WoodstockCat]

I'd like to be on your ping list also.
Great work there !

[dvwjr]

If the polling organizations do not publish such information as do ARG, Time it is a bit time consuming to 'back-into' the results as I have attempted to do...


dvwjr

[Dolphy]

Please add me to your ping list.

[Fledermaus]

Excellent. Add me to the ping list.

I was surprised at the high number of Republicans in the polls. Of course in most of them the breakdown of Rep vs. Dem determined the outcome.

I do think in many instances it shows where the Independents are falling: for Bush.

[MistyCA]

Thank you!

[Chesterbelloc]

This is great, thanks for pinging me.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Crikey! Great work.

[1stMarylandRegiment]

You are a credit - again, a gentleman and a true scholar.

[Salvation]

Bush bounce to the top!

[byteback]

So the Bush bounce is just polling more Republicans?

[Recovering_Democrat]

The last few Gallup polls seem to be heavily weighted towards Republicans in their sample. Could this explain the big lead for W?

[MeekOneGOP]

[not_apathetic_anymore]

Thanks for the ping, please keep me on the list:)

[HawaiianGecko]

   Me Me Me

[Heff]

Well done!