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Here are the latest political affiliation breakdowns for many of the major polls that have been published. This allows one to judge how much any variance in the political affiliation of the pool of poll respondents affects the final published poll results. It will allow for a comparison to those future polls which will be released in the next 42 days. Updated figures are for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Los Angeles Times, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI sponsored polls of Registered voters for a three-way race (Bush vs Kerry vs Nader) in the presidential contest.

Calculations for the post-convention 'bounce' for Bush are now listed for the ABC/Washington Post, American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, Newsweek/PSRAI and Time/SRBI . Remember that 'lead' is different from 'bounce'. A 'lead' is how far candidate A is ahead of candidate B in a current poll. A 'bounce' is defined as the difference between: the change in candidate A's poll results in two successive polls and the change in candidate B's poll results in the same two successive polls.

If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.

Included at the top of this table are the results of the year 2000 Voter News Service exit polling data for partisan affiliation. The overall breakdown of the Republican, Democrat and Independent voters and their individual candidate preference breakdowns (Bush vs Gore vs Nader vs Other) are shown to allow comparison to current polls and the upcoming year 2004 exit polls and final results.


			Revision Date:
			09/21/2004


United States Presidential Election 2000		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Gore	Nader	Other
105,417,258 Actual Voters
		VNS Calculated (MoE ±0.85%)				Actual Results
November 7, 2000		34.37%	38.86%	26.77%	13,157 V	47.87%	48.38%	2.73%	1.02%

2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for:	Bush	90.51%	11.09%	46.51%
2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for:	Gore	8.67%	85.88%	44.93%
2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for:	Nader	0.81%	1.84%	6.48%
2000 VNS Exit Data - Voted for:	Other	0.01%	1.19%	2.07%
	Total	100%	100%	100%




ABCNews/Washington Post Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Neither	Wont vote	No opinion
All polls Registered Voters

June 17-20, 2004	100.0%	29.8%	37.5%	32.7%	1,015 RV	43.74%	48.47%	5.81%	0.30%	0.69%	0.39%	0.59%
July 22-25, 2004	100.0%	33.1%	34.4%	32.5%	974 RV	47.51%	46.49%	2.52%	0.18%	1.49%	0.49%	1.32%
July 30- August 1, 2004	100.0%	28.6%	38.7%	32.7%	940 RV	44.26%	49.57%	2.13%	0.32%	1.28%	0.53%	1.91%
August 26-29, 2004	100.0%	32.9%	31.7%	35.3%	945 RV	48.47%	46.77%	1.59%	0.11%	0.95%	0.42%	1.69%
September 6-8, 2004	100.0%	35.2%	30.5%	34.3%	952 RV	50.21%	43.59%	2.00%	0.42%	1.79%	0.32%	1.68%

July 30-August 1 minus July 22-25		-4.5%	4.3%	0.2%		-3.25%	3.08%	-0.39%	0.14%	-0.21%	0.04%	0.59%
ABC/WaPost Kerry Convention Bounce:	6.34%

September 6-8 minus August 26-29		2.3%	-1.3%	-1.0%		1.74%	-3.18%	0.41%	0.31%	0.83%	-0.11%	-0.01%
ABC/WaPost Bush Convention Bounce:	4.92%



ARG Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters

July 1-3, 2004	100.0%	35.2%	38.8%	26.0%	773 RV	44.24%	47.35%	2.59%	5.82%
July 30-August 1, 2004	100.0%	35.1%	37.1%	27.8%	776 RV	44.97%	48.58%	2.06%	4.38%
August 30-September 1, 2004	100.0%	34.6%	37.1%	28.3%	1,014 RV	44.67%	45.96%	2.96%	6.41%

July 30-August 1 minus July 1-3		-0.1%	-1.7%	1.8%		0.73%	1.23%	-0.53%	-1.44%
ARG Kerry Convention Bounce:	0.50%

Aug 30-Sep 1 minus July 3--Aug 1		-0.4%	0.0%	0.5%		-0.30%	-2.63%	0.90%	2.03%
ARG Bush Convention Bounce:	2.33%



CBS News Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote	Depends	Do not know
All polls Registered Voters

May 20-23, 2004	100.0%	29.0%	34.0%	37.0%	883 RV	40.54%	46.55%	5.21%	0.68%	1.59%	0.57%	4.87%
July 11-15, 2004	100.0%	27.3%	34.2%	38.5%	789 RV	41.57%	45.25%	5.20%	0.38%	1.27%	1.52%	4.82%
July 30 - August 1, 2004	100.0%	35.3%	37.5%	27.1%	837 RV	42.51%	48.39%	2.99%	0.01%	0.37%	1.19%	4.54%
August 15-18, 20004	100.0%	36.4%	39.6%	24.0%	792 RV	45.08%	46.46%	1.01%	0.13%	0.63%	1.01%	5.68%
September 6-8, 2004	100.0%	34.4%	37.7%	27.9%	889 RV	48.71%	42.41%	1.35%	0.34%	0.67%	1.01%	5.51%
September 12-16, 2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.2%	28.0%	1,048 RV	49.90%	40.55%	2.96%	0.38%	1.15%	1.05%	4.01%

July 11-15 minus July 30-August 1, 2004		8.1%	3.3%	-11.4%		0.94%	3.14%	-2.21%	-0.37%	-0.90%	-0.33%	-0.28%
CBS News Kerry Convention Bounce:	2.20%

September 6-8 minus August 15-18		-1.9%	-2.0%	3.9%		3.63%	-4.06%	0.34%	0.21%	0.04%	0.00%	-0.17%
CBS News Bush Convention Bounce:	7.69%



FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote
All polls Registered or Likely Voters

July 20-21, 2004	100.0%	36.3%	41.2%	22.4%	900 RV	43.11%	42.44%	3.56%	10.33%	0.56%
August 3-4, 2004	100.0%	35.6%	42.1%	22.3%	900 RV	41.78%	46.44%	2.44%	8.78%	0.56%
August 24-25, 2004	100.0%	33.6%	36.5%	29.9%	1,000 LV	42.51%	43.99%	3.50%	9.51%	0.49%
September 7-8, 2004	100.0%	36.1%	41.5%	22.4%	1,000 LV	46.60%	43.40%	2.70%	7.10%	0.20%

August 3-4, 2004 minus July 20-21		-0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%		-1.33%	4.00%	-1.11%	-1.56%	0.00%
FoxNews Kerry Convention Bounce:	5.33%

September 7-8 minus August 24-25		2.5%	5.0%	-7.5%		4.09%	-0.59%	-0.80%	-2.41%	-0.29%
FoxNews Bush Convention Bounce:	4.68%



Gallup Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters

May 7-9, 2004	100.0%	32.2%	34.1%	33.8%	877 RV	41.39%	46.41%	7.41%	4.79%
May 21-23, 2004	100.0%	35.3%	36.5%	28.2%	883 RV	44.17%	46.09%	5.78%	3.96%
June 3-6, 2004	100.0%	35.5%	37.7%	26.8%	896 RV	42.41%	45.42%	7.37%	4.80%
June 21-23, 2004	100.0%	34.1%	37.6%	28.2%	882 RV	44.90%	46.49%	5.56%	3.06%
July 8-11, 2004	100.0%	34.7%	37.6%	27.7%	891 RV	41.53%	50.28%	3.70%	4.49%
July 19-21, 2004	100.0%	41.3%	37.6%	21.1%	878 RV	43.39%	47.38%	5.01%	4.21%
July 30-August 1, 2004	100.0%	39.6%	39.2%	21.2%	916 RV	47.71%	47.38%	2.29%	2.62%
August 9-11, 2004	100.0%	39.9%	38.2%	21.9%	897 RV	46.04%	44.93%	4.91%	4.12%
August 23-25, 2004	100.0%	40.6%	37.7%	21.7%	876 RV	46.46%	46.46%	3.54%	3.54%
September 3-5, 2004	100.0%	40.0%	38.8%	21.3%	926 RV	48.38%	46.22%	3.56%	1.84%
September 13-15, 2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.0%	28.1%	935 RV	50.00%	42.00%	4.00%	4.00%

July 30-August 1 minus July 19-21		-1.7%	1.6%	0.1%		4.31%	0.00%	-2.72%	-1.59%
Gallup Kerry Convention Bounce:	-4.31%

September 3-5 minus August 23-25		-0.7%	1.1%	-0.4%		1.92%	-0.24%	0.02%	-1.70%
Gallup Bush Convention Bounce:	2.16%



Los Angeles Times Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other/UDec	Dont Know
All polls Registered Voters

June 5-8, 2004	100.0%	25.9%	38.0%	36.1%	1,230 RV	42.49%	48.35%	4.14%	0.51%	4.51%
July 17-21, 2004	100.0%	31.7%	40.9%	27.3%	1,529 RV	43.56%	46.37%	3.07%	0.39%	6.61%
August 21-24, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	41.0%	27.0%	1,352 RV	46.60%	44.08%	3.40%	0.59%	5.33%

August 21-24 minus July 17-21		0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%		3.04%	-2.29%	0.33%	0.20%	-1.28%
LA Times Kerry Convention Bounce:	-5.33%



Newsweek/PSRAI Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters

March 18-19, 2004	100.0%	35.9%	35.1%	29.0%	838 RV	45.47%	43.44%	5.49%	5.61%
May 13-14, 2004	100.0%	32.2%	36.9%	30.9%	832 RV	42.31%	43.27%	5.41%	9.01%
July 8-9, 2004	100.0%	34.4%	35.6%	30.0%	1,001 RV	44.36%	47.35%	2.70%	5.59%
July 29-30, 2004	100.0%	29.0%	38.5%	32.5%	1,010 RV	41.78%	49.41%	3.07%	5.74%
September 2-3, 2004	100.0%	34.6%	32.3%	33.1%	1,008 RV	51.88%	41.07%	3.47%	3.57%
September 9-10, 2004	100.0%	35.7%	31.3%	33.0%	1,003 RV	48.55%	43.47%	2.39%	5.58%

July 29-30 minus July 8-9		-5.4%	2.9%	2.5%		-2.57%	2.05%	0.37%	0.15%
Newsweek Kerry Convention Bounce:	4.63%

September 2-3 minus July 29-30, 2004		5.6%	-6.3%	0.7%		10.10%	-8.33%	0.40%	-2.17%
Newsweek Bush Convention Bounce:	18.44%



Time/SRBI Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Do not know	Refused
All polls Registered Voters

July 20-22, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.0%	32.0%	1,059 RV	43.00%	46.00%	5.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%
August 3-5, 2004	100.0%	28.0%	36.0%	36.0%	1,001 RV	41.00%	45.00%	6.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%
August 24-26, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	32.0%	35.0%	1,026 RV	46.00%	42.00%	6.00%	0.00%	5.00%	2.00%
August 31-September 2, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	32.0%	32.0%	1,128 RV	49.00%	39.00%	5.00%	0.00%	4.00%	2.00%
September 7-9, 2004	100.0%	31.0%	32.0%	37.0%	1,013 RV	50.00%	39.00%	4.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%

August 3-5 minus July 20-22		-5.00%	1.00%	4.00%		-2.00%	-1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	-1.00%	1.00%
Time Kerry Convention Bounce:	1.00%

August 31-September 2 minus August 24-26		3.0%	0.0%	-3.0%		3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%	0.0%	-1.0%	0.0%
Time Bush Convention Bounce:	6.00%

Note: All R/D/I numbers published by TIME/SRBI

Notes: In some cases polling organizations will have more than the three catagories of partisan political affiliation (Rep/Dem/Ind). When such cases exist, those 'Others' have been added to the 'Independent' catagory for comparison purposes.

I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.

Hope this helps...

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