Skip to comments.Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Nineteen
Posted on 09/11/2004 12:09:10 AM PDT by nwctwx
I always feel better when you post a response to my crazy little posts. Its lets me know it is not just me. Take care.
Ive been pretty busy since the last update, so this one will probably be a lot more summary with relatively old news. However, a lot has been happening with some interesting new views on the old news. I also hope to have part one on the potential Iranian military response to any attack on their nuclear research infrastructure done later today for posting. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
10/4/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04
1. Attack threat windows
10/4/04 Primary Window: We are now 30 days away from election day and if AQ is intending to attack before Nov 2, their window of opportunity is rapidly closing. The recent audio tape released by Al Zawahiri adds fuel to the speculation about the proximity of today to the next strike.
10/4/04 A tip on or about 9/8/04 to the DHS referred to a Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 window for a potential attack in NYC using a fuel truck. We are now IN this subwindow with 6 days left.. Just for the record, the second presidential debate will be held Oct 8th.
10/4/04 A new kid on the block is the American Computer Scientists Assoc (ACSA). I throw these folks into the mix for evaluation and documentation if their predictive methodology pans out. They note in the following press release excerpts dated 9/25/04 -
The ACSA (American Computer Scientists Association | http://acsa.net ) indicated it felt October 6 and 7th were very likely "Al Qaeda Profiled" days for such an attack to occur. It also stated that any such attack could be delayed to occur closer to the actual US Elections, but for the Democratic Party to seize an opportunity to try and topple the Bush Campaign, it would probably require four weeks of concerted, coordinated efforts, for it to blame Bush for the anticipated attack sufficiently to muster support for it's failing campaign, as indicated by recent drops in support for Kerry in the polls.
"We believe that it is likely that October 6 and 7 best fit the kind of drama program the Al Qaedans like to use. For one, the 6th is the actual anniversary of the Palestinian takeover of the Cruise Liner Achille Lauro in 1985
"The 7th of October is the actual anniversary of the 1973 attack during Yom Kippur on Israel, and the actual anniversary of the United States British combined operation to invade Afghanistan two to three years ago after 911."
Their press release also goes into potential numerology and other significant events on those dates. It has been noted here at TM that there is a slight correlation between attacks and historic events and numbers but the connections have not yet been a reliable indicator for bracketing attack windows.
Secondary window: (10/4/04) This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005. I would consider this period a high risk for potential assassination attempts on the new administration, especially if Bush wins reelection.
2. Attack Indicators
10/4/04 There is still anticipation of an OBL video/audio tape to soon appear. However, there is some speculation that it may come out AFTER the attack in order to allow him to gloat.
10/01/04 Following the conflicting news accounts regarding his capture, Al Zawarhiri, AQ #2 man, released an audio tape message to his followers. This tape does give the impression that the GO order has been issued. However, the reports of his capture my have hit close to the mark based upon the following analysis of Zawarhiris message that is posted on Jills site that identified some key points.
These are the main two phrases that are causing all the consternation and speculation.
Al Zawahiri is releasing all the Al Qaeda cells to act independently on their own and saying that Al Qaeda central command, control is gone; no orders will be coming regarding future attacks.
This means a go for any cells close to or ready for an attack.
He uses the Term in it "Devour" and its whole tone is negative and filled with despair.
Some of the key Arabic words were looked up and put in context culturally.
For example, the key phrase here is "The youth must not wait for anyone and must begin resisting from now and learn a lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan and Chechnya." It suggests there are no further orders coming from any command central," and all are released to perform actions at the time and against targets of their choosing."
Jill also posted some comments about the message from jihadi sites that seem to indicate that the top AQ leadership is hard pressed to remain uncaptured / alive..
The talk increased Lately about a leading fate the rule from a saying, they are in the grip of the age ghoul America ..
This comes under a noticeable absence to Osama Ben Ladin 's tapes personally .. And these signals that Al-Zawahiri 's talk included confirm that their fate became nearer to the death or the capture and it might have talked to its companion one of them then offered this speech as a preparation for the declaration of Ibn Ladn 's fate or for taming its supporters for the hearing of surprises from the heavy caliber about their fate .
We are not the only ones to whom the absence of OBL is extremely curious.
3. Current Terrorist Operations
10/4/04 Random attacks, car bombings, kidnappings and beheadings continue primarily against Iraqi civilian and police targets. There are some reports that a US airstrike interrupted the turn-over of French journalists for ransom. The British prisoner is still alive and providing plenty of PSYOPS for the terrorists.
10/4/04 U.S. Army intelligence has concluded that daily U.S. air strikes have hurt the terror network led by Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi.
U.S. officials said military intelligence has detected a drop in communications and activities in insurgency-controlled Sunni cities such as Faluja and Samara.
Over the last month, officials estimated, about 100 Al Zarqawi operatives have been killed in U.S. bombing operations, mostly in Faluja. They said the air strikes were based on enhanced intelligence regarding the movement of senior operatives.
Additional note: Al-Zarqawi recently released a message on 9/11/04 the translation and some commentary can be found at:
Some noted that the 9/11/04 message had a degree of desperation in it. The most recent U.S. airstrikes (10/4/04) attacked the terrorists as they were trying to move weapons in the middle of the night. Clearly the airstrikes are taking a significant toll since their stronghold is no longer safe enough for them to do this during daylight hours.
10/4/04 The First Infantry Division is conducting mop-up operations in Samara. It is now being reported that as many as 42 of the captured terrorists were non-Iraqi. Control of this city puts a further tactical squeeze upon Al-Zarqawi and other terrorists holed up in Fallujah, in the central portion of the sunni triangle. This attack may soon be followed up by an attack on Baqubah, another terrorist stronghold, closing down the northern prong of the sunni triangle. If this occurs, then Al-Zarqawi may find his logistical support cut off from Iran as well as Syria as US and Syria work towards sealing that border off (western prong of the sunni triangle). Sadr City is also being systematically bombed with much of the resistance there on the decline (southeastern prong of the sunni triangle).
9/28/04 Two kidnapped Italian aid workers in Iraq were released after a ransom was paid to their kidnappers.
Afghanistan October 9 Elections
10/4/04 Coalition forces continue to engage small groups of Taliban on a daily basis. Reinforcements are on the ground to provide additional security for national elections this Saturday.
10/4/04 Nothing significant to report.
10/4/04 Israel began a sweep in the northern Gaza Strip to eliminate rocket launches originating from there. These operations have been having success. So much so that the UN has quickly met to condemn the actions. Additionally, Israeli surveillance aircraft have photographed terrorists using UN marked ambulances to carry military supplies and materials.
10/4/04 Irans Mullahs have put their country on a crash course to have at least 2 nuclear bombs by the end of the year. As a result, Russia is now backing off its completion of a Iranian nuclear power plant and is becoming more supportive of the US and EU positions. Iran has also threatened to launch its newest missiles against Israel if attacked.
10/4/04 Russia may be planning to attack suspected terrorist sites in the country of Georgia as well as the state of Chechnya. However, their military is reported to be in disarray with many AWOL.
10/4/04 There are conflicting stories regarding how involved the British government is with negotiations to release a hostage facing beheading in Iraq.
10/1/04 The UN has told Syria that it is in violation of its directive to completely pull out of Lebanon.
9/27/04 Syrian President Bashar Assad is seeking Tehran's help to relocate a dozen Iraqi nuclear scientists who were moved to Damascus prior to the collapse of Saddam Hussein's government last. For his part of the deal, Assad wants Iran to agree to share the results of their research with Syria. According to the report, Assad is still waiting for an answer from Tehran.
I suspect that Assad is trying to reduce his profile to avoid a potential US attack.
9/27/04 The alleged top al-Qaida operative in Lebanon, Ismail Mohammed al-Khatib, who was captured last week in a security operation that broke up a terrorist network, died of a heart attack Monday. Many would have wished hed died of lead poisoning.
10/4/04 The situation is still tense as the region waits to see if N. Korea will conduct some kind of missile test. Probably of more propaganda nature, N. Korea announced that it has 8 nuclear weapons in its arsenal. If true, these bombs would have been made from processing the old plutonium fuel rods that had been held in storage until the recent violation of the treaty with the US.
10/1/04 S. Korea is at a heightened alert status due to the recent message from Al Zawahiri, who included the country in the list of targets.
9/27/04 South-East Asian governments must prepare for the possibility of regional terror group Jemaah Islamiah (JI) forging links with Chechen separatists and adopting even more aggressive tactics, an expert warns.
9/28/04 Adnan G. El Shukrijumah, a key al Qaeda cell leader for whom the U.S. government has offered a $5 million reward, was spotted in July in Honduras meeting with leaders of El Salvador's notorious Mara Salvatrucha gang, which immigration officials said has smuggled hundreds of Central and South Americans mostly gang members into the United States. Although they are actively involved in alien, drug and weapons smuggling, Mara Salvatrucha members in America also have been tied to numerous killings, robberies, burglaries, carjackings, extortions, rapes and aggravated assaults including at least seven killings in Virginia and a machete attack on a 16-year-old in Alexandria that severely mutilated his hands.
Authorities said al Qaeda terrorists hope to take advantage of a lack of detention space within the Department of Homeland Security that has forced immigration officials to release non-Mexican illegal aliens back into the United States, rather than return them to their home countries.
10/1/04 McALLEN Information provided by a high-ranking al-Qaida operative led authorities to almost a dozen undocumented aliens who worked for the largest supplier of ready-to-eat meals for the military, officials said.
U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Texas, Michael Shelby, said Thursday an al-Qaida member told U.S. military personnel about the Wornick Co., located here.
"Immediately after the liberation of Afghanistan from the Taliban in 2002, U.S. forces on the ground received specific information that links McAllen, Texas, by name and the Wornick facility by name to information within al-Qaidas possession," Shelby said.
9/27/04 Attorney General John Ashcroft has taken the unusual step of ordering all Justice Department law enforcement resources to be routed to terrorism "if and when necessary to prevent terrorist attacks."
Ashcroft's order allows the country's Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs) to get emergency help from the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Administration, the U.S. Marshals Service and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.
9/27/04 With the election five weeks away, U.S. counterterrorism officials are obsessed with reports from multiple sources that terrorists hope to disrupt the campaign. "Nobody can give you date, time or place, but everyone is absolutely convinced we're going to get hit," says a top counterterrorism hand.
So the FBI is putting together an aggressive plan that includes rousting people suspected of supporting violent extremists.
4. Attack method.
10/4/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. Stolen fuel / propane trucks seem to be high on LEA's radar. Hijacked airlines are still on AQs hit parade too.
Also of concern are assassinations and kidnappings / hostages. Both of these actions are relatively low tech and highly possible. Our own internal wacko -the DC sniper and various other unsolved snipings show how difficult it would be to track down a determined terrorist.
9/28/04 Al Qaeda's threat to attack the United States before the November 2 election is geared less toward affecting the outcome of the presidential race than toward making a violent statement to Islamic extremists worldwide, senior counterterrorism officials said Monday.
The officials said the network's aim in the United States, and in other countries as well, is mainly to disrupt the democratic process in a more general sense.
"Striking America at a time of heightened sensitivity, perhaps they would see that as a feather in their cap," said one senior administration official, who along with three others briefed reporters on condition of anonymity Monday about the pre-election threat.
As many here in TM have noted, the pressure on AQ to perform is increasing and the absence of a significant attack prior to the elections would result in serious loss of face by the organization. A recent Bill Gertz article echoed this in the Washington times.
"They [al Qaeda] think their credibility is on the line because there hasn't +been a major attack since 9/11," said one official familiar with intelligence reports on the group.
10/4/04 Nothing new.
6. Significant meetings canceled:
10/4/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
10/4/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. I don't look for any change in the status of these locations until after the inauguration at the earliest.
GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.
8. Military operations.
10/1/04 The US Navy has positioned destroyers off the coast of N. Korea to monitor and track any potential missile launch. These ships are also to be the first line of tracking stations for the strategic defensive missile system until a more extensive ground-based system can be put into place.
10/4/04 3 carrier groups deployed (CV-67 Kennedy, CV-63 Kitty Hawk, CVN-74 Stennis), 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 are post deployment and 5 under going maintenance.
10/4/04 F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
9/21/04 The Secret Service is looking for an armed, mentally unstable upstate man in connection with a plot to kill President Bush and John Kerry. The agency put out a "national lookout" yesterday for Lawrence Ward, a 57-year-old resident of Bainbridge, N.Y., who is said to have an obsession with guns, a history of violence and a hatred of the president. Ward was last seen on Sept. 9 as he got into his blue 1997 Toyota with a lever-action shotgun, the neighbor said. The alert said the car has New York license-plate number BRF6546.
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
9/30/04 A pilot flying a Delta Air Lines jet was injured by a laser that illuminated the cockpit of the aircraft as it approached Salt Lake City International Airport last week, U.S. officials said.
Officials were unsure of the source of the laser and could not determine whether the exposure was deliberate or accidental.
9/27/04 In what appears to be a case of criminal mischief, a punctured pipeline exploded before dawn Sunday, causing the evacuation of 250 people in New Caney, TX, a small community north of Houston, but no injuries or significant damage to nearby homes. Residents near the pipeline said they were awakened around 4:45 a.m. by two explosions a small one, then a large one
9/27/04 Hippocrates Koutosoupakis was arrested after police found substances used in the manufacturing of explosives in his van near the Atlantic Beach Bridge on Long Island. Police say the potentially dangerous substances were inside Koutosoupakis's van and that it "was his intention to cause an explosion. Also, a search of his home turned up several improvised explosives.
I still think it is code 10/6 & 10/7 and the Pentagon date of 10/12 is the worry, anyone know what big plans there are for Columbus Day ie: parades, President Bush etc???
ACSA predicts the details of 'likely' Terror Attack preceding the US Elections of 2004
I'd say the next week is dicey up until 10-13 and what if we can't own ammo/weapons nada? Also, avoid gatherings, AVOID gatherings, particularly large ones!
Ok, what is with 10/12? I read the info about 10/6 and 10/7.
Thank you, Godzilla!
Dutch police hold second man in attack probe
04 Oct 2004 16:34:54 GMT
AMSTERDAM, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Dutch police have arrested a man on suspicion of possessing explosives which may have been intended for an attack, the second such arrest in a week, prosecutors said on Monday.
The 30-year-old man was arrested on Saturday in the central town of Utrecht suspected of involvement in terrorist activities, spokesman Wim de Bruin said.
"He is being held on suspicion he possessed and transported explosives which could possibly have been destined for use in an attack," he said, declining to identify the suspect or give further details.
A 37-year-old man was arrested the previous Sunday in his Utrecht home suspected of the same crimes. A magistrate will decide later this week whether to extend the temporary detention of the two men, de Bruin said.
As part of the same investigation, police last month raided a house in Utrecht and arrested two men and a woman on suspicion they were hiding explosives. But no explosives were found and they were released.
In a separate case, Dutch authorities last month said they had detained four men in July suspected of preparing attacks and belonging to radical Islamist organisations. Two of the men were Dutch nationals, one was from Saudi Arabia and one from Yemen.
Another man arrested in June on suspicion of planning attacks appeared in court in public for the first time on Sept. 23. Police said they found cartridges, a bulletproof vest, a silencer, maps and sketches of key buildings in his home.
That arrest sparked a national security alert and came amid heightened fears of al Qaeda attacks against countries with armed forces in Iraq, where the Netherlands currently has some 1,300 troops stationed.
In September, the Dutch cabinet approved a package of measures to help fight terrorism, including creating a new national anti-terrorism coordinator, increasing the time suspects can be held and making bugging easier.
Apologize if this has already been posted. This happened in McAllen, Texas where the pawn shop was robbed and the lady who came across the border was picked up at the airport.
Anyone know of any other strange things around McAllen?
Al-Qaida Infiltrated U.S. Military Meal Company?
One of my county's female legislators died earlier this year of CJD. But I cannot -- to this day -- confirm if it was the variant form or not.
All news reports and public info ever said was that it was CJD, a rare brain disorder. I understand that there are a few forms of the CJD disease and perhaps the form the lawmaker died from was not related to the variant disease that we like to call mad cow.
To your knowledge, does this make sense?
Then again, if the lawmaker did die of the human form of mad cow, why the heck would they publicize it, right? We know that family members of others who supposedly have died from eating in various restaurants have banded together to try to out what they know and what the public health officals have kept under wraps.
I have always been suspicious since the lawmaker died because of this.
The lawmaker resigned from office one day with a rare and fatal brain disease and the next thing I know she was dead. It all happened terribly fast. Could all be innocent, of course. Just wish I knew.
S. African Pleads Guilty in Texas Immigration Case
Mon Sep 27, 2004 02:38 PM ET
HOUSTON (Reuters) - A South African woman whose arrest in Texas touched off warnings of terrorist incursions from the U.S. South pleaded guilty on Monday to charges she was an illegal immigrant.
Farida Goolam Mahomed Ahmed, 48, faces up to 15 years in prison after admitting to U.S. District Judge Kenneth Hoyt she entered the country illegally, lied to federal agents and doctored her passport.
She has been in custody without bail since July 19, when she was seized at the airport in McAllen, Texas, for not having a visa.
That's interesting, I was in my car today listening to Todd Schnitt (semi-conservative talk radio after Rush) and he was saying something about somebody calling into the show on July 26th I think, or maybe August 10th I can't remember, but this person claimed to be working for some high muckety-muck overseas and said that OBL would be announced as "captured" between OCT 7th and 11th. Schnitt actually marked it on the calendar on his show. He's got some good stuff on his site, but I think you'll have to search the archives for that piece.
Thanks for the link and info Karl.
Expert: Terrorists Seek Mass Casualties of Unprecedented Scale
NewsMax ^ | 10/5/04 | Dave Eberhart
Posted on 10/04/2004 9:12:17 PM EDT by wagglebee
Few understand the mind of the terror leaders like Yossef Bodansky.
Bodanksy was the first expert to significantly warn the West about bin Laden in his 1999 bestseller Bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War on America.
As director of Research of the International Strategic Studies Association and the director of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare of the U.S. House of Representatives, Bodasnky is one of the worlds most sought after terror experts.
In an exclusive interview with NewsMax, Bodansky starkly concluded the U.S. is losing its war on terrorism. In fact, since Sept. 11, he estimates the cadres of terror groups have actually tripled since mid-September 2001, and the active support echelons have grown ten-fold.
Also the bestselling author of The High Cost of Peace: How Washington's Middle East Policy Left America Vulnerable to Terrorism, Bodansky has no doubt that America is vulnerable to a major attack before the Nov. 2 election.
Already, he says, there is talk among Islamic terror groups of an attack on the U.S. homeland yielding mass casualties on an unprecedented scale.
While lauding the policy of the Bush administration, he chides U.S. intelligence agencies.
NewsMax caught up with the busy expert as he traveled back to the U.S. from Geneva, Switzerland.
NewsMax: Are the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission sound or do they miss some critical point?
I dont have a specific comment regarding this or that commission, but I think that the MAIN problem of our war on terrorism has so far eluded public debate. So, here goes my rather lengthy overall take:
The United States is losing the war on terrorism despite sound policies, responsible decision-making, and laudable dedication of the armed forces and law enforcement agencies.
Even a cursory examination of the war is not encouraging --
Iraq is going up in flames -- the outcome of an escalating grassroots rebellion. A wave of terrorism engulfs Saudi Arabia. Afghanistan is falling apart because of revived fratricidal warfare. Pakistan is on the brink of civil war because of mounting grassroots opposition to Musharrafs cooperation with the U.S. The Chechens escalate their terrorist war to the heart of Russia. The HAMAS escalates operations beyond the Palestinian theater, as do other Islamist-Jihadist groups in dozens of countries around the world.
The size of the Islamist-Jihadist terrorist forces around the world has tripled since mid-September 2001, and the active support echelons have grown ten-fold. Meanwhile, the hard core of Osama bin Ladens loyalists have markedly improved their ability to strike out at the heart of the United States and Western Europe.
Despite the formulation of a correct policy by the Bush Administration, the war is in a dire state primarily because the U.S. intelligence community has repeatedly failed the White House by providing scant concrete data and wrong threat analysis.
It has been the wanting of intelligence that has made implementation of the Presidents policy virtually impossible, and at times has even aggravated the problems facing the U.S.
The primary flaw of the U.S. intelligence community is the intellectual isolationism and arrogance of the purveyors of knowledge to the White House -- that is, the intelligence system of research and analysis.
The current disastrous state of affairs is the outcome of more than a decade of intentional recruitment of like-minded individuals to sustain the course.
Consequently, there emerged an institutional culture -- much like the State Departments culture -- that taints and tilts analysis, refusing to confront the possibility of lack of knowledge or errors of judgment.
Within the intelligence communitys analytical elite there is by now a very strong echo-chamber effect. And recent history is full with cases of honest analysts who dared question the party-line (through channels) being fired or forced to resign because they would not toe the line.
The American intelligence community does not tolerate challenge and dissent to the detriment of the national interest.
The gravity of the crisis of the U.S. intelligence community, particularly in view of the mounting quagmire in post-Saddam Iraq, is now widely acknowledged throughout official Washington.
Thus, the harsh criticism of the U.S. intelligence community by the various commissions investigating recent crises is warranted. Moreover, a crucial issue outside their mandate -- namely, how come that intelligence community knows so little and comprehends even less -- is yet to be addressed.
Therefore, the recommendation that there should be a profound reorganization of the intelligence community, including the creation of a new cabinet-level position for an Intelligence Czar and the elimination of the CIA as a single agency through partitioning, is only the first step in what should be a profound revamping of Americas intelligence community and its culture. A profoundly thorough reform is urgently needed.
The current sorry state of affairs cannot continue. If the U.S. is to persevere and prevail in the war on terrorism -- and it must ultimately triumph if Western civilization is to survive -- it ought to comprehend its foes.
Intelligence is the key to fighting terrorism and subversion. The present U.S. intelligence community has not only failed to meet the challenge, but is failing to learn from its own recent mistakes, adapt and correct its ways of doing business.
Increasing the intelligence budget and reorganizing existing institutions no longer suffices. Urgently needed are changes of priorities and methods -- the revamping of the US intelligence culture. The intelligence communitys analysts must be freed from the current institutional stifling, must have greater exposure to the real world, must interact with outside expertise even if dissenting, must increase their reliance on open source-material - at least until viable sources are acquired and developed.
Without such profound intelligence reforms, the United States will keep losing the war on terrorism - an unthinkable prospect.
NewsMax: The 9/11 Commission seems to dismiss any serious nexus between Saddam Hussein, bin Laden and the 9/11 attacks. You have voiced, however, what you perceive as a long history of Saddam/bin Laden association. What is the strongest proof of that nexus and why, in your opinion, did the Commission take the relatively dismissive stance they have?
The mere fact that Ive discussed in great length the evolution of the Islamist-Jihadist cooperation with Saddam Husseins Iraq between the early 1990s and the spring of 1999 in my book bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War on America is in itself telling because the book was published in the summer of 1999 long before this cooperation became a hot political topic.
I cannot point out to a single specific piece of evidence as the strongest proof.
We are dealing with evolving cooperation that started way before Osama bin Laden was a leader and essentially continues -- in the form of Izzat Ibrahim al-Duris June 2004 formal alliance with Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi after the demise of Saddam Hussein.
Perhaps the multiple source evidence about the training in fall 2002 of al-Qaeda terrorists in WMD by Iraqi Military Intelligence Unit 999 in Salman Pack -- as described in great detail in my latest book The Secret History of the Iraq War -- is the most relevant proof of these relationships.
NewsMax: There have been media reports that bin Laden is no longer running the al-Qaeda show that now, in fact, the network has a life of its own, spawned in part at least by the U.S. invasion of Iraq. In your opinion, is this true is it now a broader and even more insidious war? What could we (the president) have done differently?
Al-Qaeda has always been an amorphous entity.
From an operational point of view, of significance are the terrorist groups run by and/or associated with the International Front for Confronting the Crusaders and the Jews.
There, there has been a major expansion since winter 2001 with the operational cadres (would-be terrorists) increasing by three- fold and the active support elements increasing by ten fold.
Most significant is the flow of thoroughly westernized Muslims in Western Europe into the ranks of the would-be terrorists. Moreover, there is an ongoing radicalization and alienation of ever greater segments of the Muslim world even if only a relative few resort to violence.
However, of far greater significance is the fact that there is NO real counter-movement throughout the Muslim world since the fall of 2001. There is no popular movement calling for moderation, modernization, co-existence with the West, etc.
Osama bin Laden has never been in direct operational control over the majority of the Jihadist-Islamist groups.
Ayman al-Zawahiri has controlled, and is still controlling, the key elite terrorist formations committed to spectacular strikes of strategic or global significance.
The marked expansion of the Islamist-Jihadist movement since fall 2001, concurrent with the reduced importance of the Afghan-Pakistani hub, resulted in the growing pronouncement of the regional distinction of the various Islamist-Jihadist groups, particularly those with charismatic commanders and leaders.
Bin Laden, however, remains the undisputed supreme spiritual authority that charts the overall course of the Jihad.
Ideologically and theologically -- all of these developments are still the manifestation of the growing alienation of the Muslim world from the West and the grassroots adoption of the call for fateful confrontation bin Laden has been advocating since late 1990s.
By mid 2002, the U.S. preoccupation with Baghdad the former sacred Capital of the Caliphate as distinct from Saddam Husseins secular Iraq resulted in the eruption of Islamist zeal based on the cataclysmic legacy of the Hulagu Khan syndrome.
I discuss this issue in great detail in the Introduction to The Secret History of the Iraq War. Needless to say that the subsequent U.S. occupation of Iraq and the widespread destruction wrought only aggravated the situation and confirmed bin Ladens worst-case scenario.
In a nutshell, going to a warranted and justified war to disarm and topple the Saddan Hussein regime, the U.S. completely ignored the much wider and more profound global Islamic ramifications of such a move -- particularly the inevitable worldwide Islamist-Jihadist mobilization.
We now pay dearly for this oversight and will continue to do so for generations to come.
NewsMax: You were warning of a massive attack within the U.S. well before 9/11. What is our biggest worry now? Some media report that a dirty-nuke attack is forthcoming. Any solid basis for this? Ridge opines that there will likely be an attack to disrupt our democratic process any time in the period of the election right up through the presidential inauguration. Justified?
There is ample evidence from impeccable sources that the Islamist-Jihadist forces are adamant on striking out before the U.S. elections. Some of the warnings specify a commitment to inflicting mass casualties on an unprecedented scale perhaps through the use of a nuclear suitcase-bomb (which they definitely have).
At the same time, however, the key terrorism sponsoring states urge prudence fearing U.S. retribution. Right now, there are intense theological deliberations within the Islamist movement about what to do next. We will surely see the outcome of these deliberations.
NewsMax: You have written that given the available evidence, it is imperative for the U.S. to confront not only the entire question of Iran's terrorism sponsorship, but also the possibility that Iran provided the perpetrators of 9/11 with unique training and expertise. Bush has said that the U.S. is exhaustively looking at Irans terror connections. If Bush is re-elected, do you expect to see some dramatic developments regarding this member of the Axis of Evil?
Generally: For as long as the Mullahs Regime remains in power, and for as long as the Jihadist culture remains prevalent and dominant in Pakistan (Musharrafs declared policies not withstanding), the qualitative Islamist-Jihadist war against the U.S.-led West -- that is, the lethal, spectacular, strategically-significant terrorist strikes -- will keep escalating.
Moreover, the overall bitter struggle between the modernity (both values and technology) the West is imposing on the world and Islamdom will continue escalating and expanding until a genuine, indigenous self-reforming movement emerges in Islamdom.
Theres nothing the outside world can do in this respect but fight ceaselessly and resolutely the aggressive violent manifestation of this fateful struggle Islamist-Jihadist terrorism.
No surprise to us here...but still disturbing to hear an expert verify what we all knew anyway
You do a GREAT job!!!
Thanks so very much.
I stay so busy during the day and your summaries really help me to keep up with events.
I appreciate it more than you know.
Nothing much happening here in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Just working really hard on the Thune campaign. No terrorist sightings.....not even any Muslims around here. I do wish I could contribute more to this thread.
But, if something does happen here at Mt. Rushmore, I'll be the first to let you know.
This event would be the end of the living universe as the islamics in the United States know it. Believe it.
Al-Qaeda's new operational head
04 October 200
By M Ansari
Debriefing by security officials in Pakistan of several dozen militants captured there since July, has revealed the name of Abu Faraj al-Liby who, they say, is the man currently calling the shots on behalf of Osama bin Laden's terrorist network.
"Every time we interrogate a militant linked to Al-Qaeda, Al-Liby's name pops up," said a Pakistani security agent, who requested not to be identified.
These officials said that Al-Liby was not only the man who orchestrated major terrorist acts carried in Pakistan recently - including the latest suicide attack on Shoukat Aziz, the newly elected Pakistani Prime Minister, during his election campaign - but he was also behind the coded messages sent to Al-Qaeda sleeping cells in the UK and US, assisted by Mohammed Naeem Noor Khan, who was arrested in July.
The deciphered messages revealed that Al-Liby was co-ordinating pre-election terrorist acts in the US, and had sent messages to several militants in the UK in the last eight to 10 months.
At least two of the UK-based militants are said to have travelled to Pakistan from London and held meetings with Al-Liby to finalise the attacks.
Previously, Al-Liby worked as deputy to Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, Al-Qaeda's operational head for the 11 September 2001 attacks in the US. Al-Liby took over after Mohammad was captured in Rawalpindi on 1 March 2003. "Al-Liby was immediately elevated to the terrorist network's top position in its hierarchy because he was the right-hand man of Mohammad and was personally trusted by Bin Laden due to his past role," an investigator said.
Even today, Al-Liby is one of the few top Al-Qaeda militants who could possibly know the whereabouts of Bin Laden or Ayman Al-Zawahiri.
Security officials said, given that Al-Qaeda continues to maintain considerable legions of terrorist cells from Indonesia to the Philippines and from New York to London, they always need someone to co-ordinate and utilise these cadres. Since many of these cadres are familiar with Al-Liby's name, it is assumed he automatically qualified to replace Mohammad in this role.
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