My boss came back just in time!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100820.shtml?
000
WTNT34 KNHC 100834
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2004
...POWERFUL IVAN HEADS TOWARD JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
MATANZAS EASTWARD. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN TO NEAR
JAMAICA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AND IVAN COULD BECOME
EVEN STRONGER AS IT NEARS JAMAICA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...15.9 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Charlie spared Cayman but it looks like Cayman Brac and Little Cayman are going to be hammered by Ivan (the Terrible), with Grand Cayman about 100 miles out of the expected direct line of fire. Tourists are all quickly leaving the Island, leaving only the natives to weather the storm under piles of American cash.
Oh, lovely. Right over my house. And I just lost another of my giant pine trees yesterday morning because the roots couldn't hold in this soggy, sandy excuse for 'dirt' Florida has. It had already assumed a slight tilt from long-ago storms and Frances pushed it over to a 45 degree angle but just couldn't take it anymore after the gullywasher we had night before last. I'm going to miss the shade around here if we get whomped.
If anyone has a hurricane ping list add me, or if not, I'll start one.
ping
SHEESH! It's almost like Ivan is pissed off that Charley missed Tampa/St. Pete and is going to give it another try.
repeating my offer to Freeper horse owners who are evacuating Florida,
I have a small pasture where you can primitive camp with your horses. Free.
I am near the Raleigh, NC area.
Freepmail me for more info.
Ivan ping!
This is a short-term, medium-volume ping list. If you want on or off, simply FReepmail me.
BTW, does anyone know how to board up bay windows?
I hope nothing similar to what occurred to the prison on Grenada happens.
i qam far from an expert on hurricanes ,but what is that formation above IVAN opposite the carolinas-further out east is that moving away from the US?? is a tropical depression seems to look like circular rotation?? thanks
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html
I can't see how they are tracking it further west now, especially if they say that high is going to weaken.
Awful lot of dry air on either side of FL.
DEAR FR: HERE'S AN INTERESTING REPORT/PERSPECTIVE ON IVAN AND PRAYING FOR IVAN:
InJesus Manager Prayers Warren Bare Sep 10, 2004
Hi Folks,
Over the past few weeks I've had the opportunity to witness an absolutely remarkable event on InJesus, and I wanted to share it with you.
As almost everyone is aware, the Caribbean is in the middle of the most powerful hurricane season in recorded history. I read one report saying it had been over 100 years since two hurricanes of this magnitude struck Florida in the same year.
Now a third hurricane, Ivan, is rolling over Jamaica, then Cuba and is currently projected to hit Tampa on Tuesday morning. This projected path is very similar to Charlie.
Ivan has already killed more people than the other two storms. It has had recorded gusts in excess of 180 miles per hour, and when it ran over Grenada yesterday, it damaged 90% of the buildings on the island.
The most remarkable thing from my perspective is that Christians have responded to these storms with a unified outpouring of prayer, both before and after the storms hit. I watched message after message, group after group asking their members to pray for people in the storm path.
As a group, you managers asked hundreds of thousands of people to pray, and the impact was clear. The power of this prayer really struck home for me when Frances stalled for several days off the east coast of Florida and weakened significantly from a category 4 storm before coming ashore.
I was amazed to hear one of the national hurricane commentators say, "It is as if there is something in the atmosphere holding the hurricane at bay, and it will not move again until that factor is gone."
Most of us believe in the miracle working power of prayer, but that does not make it any less amazing when we see God's hand move.
So, on behalf of my family and friends in Florida, I want to thank you for your prayers, and to encourage you in your good works!
Be Blessed! Warren Bare CEO InJesus
Was listening to local talk radio this evening, WIOD and they interviewed a meterologist from the NHC (I believe it was Bill Kammall (sp?). From what he is saying -
It will go North once it gets over Cuba, just how far it moves West before the N. shift is unknown.
Even if it goes W. SE Florida (think Miami, Upper Keys, Homestead, Florida City are) will be affected by the storm.
He would not predict if it will go up the W. Coast towards Tampa or the Panhandle or if it will move up the E. Coast.
Seems to me they are throwing darts at a map of Florida THWAK!!! It might go here!! THWAK!!! It might go there!!
THWAK!!! Oh look, maybe here too!!!!
The whole point of this should be obvious. We will not know where Ivan hits until probably a few hours prior to landfall. It's that type of storm and from what the Hurricane Center in Miami is saying, they will be lucky to be able to give 12 hours of notice.
Good luck to everyone in Florida. I know how difficult it can be to get things like gas and other supplies right now. We still have time to prepare.
If nothing else, Ivan may miss us completely. Look what good we'll do for the economy of the state when we all spend tomorrow fighting to spend our dollars on the last bottled water at Publix....
Take care everyone
Leni