That's the Pedro Cays (4 small islands) and the Pedro Bank(large underwater rise of shoals and reefs).
Posted on 09/10/2004 1:58:54 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004
REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
But, more importantly, where did you find this 927 figure. NHC hasn't put out any new vortex data...
Thanks for that update. We must have ESP...I was just getting ready to ask you what's up!!! Or maybe that's just in the Houston air...;o)
One interesting quirk about NHC data that often comes as a shock is the LAST place to update with NHC data, advisories, etc. is the....NHC website; other non NHC websites may update with NHC data 1/2 hour ahead of the NHC website.
I never go anywhere NEAR the NHC website during a threatening storm, especially.
VORTEX statements are updated in several places, the fastest of which is OSU:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
Here's a cool link.
Jamaica Radio. Click on "Listen". They're doing a lot of hurricane coverage...talking about potential looting now...should be on the air for the next 3 or 4 hours if we're lucky...
That data is still half an hour old though. 2222Z = 6:22 PM EDT. Still, good stuff.
It shows flight-level winds @ 122 kt, which means intensity has actually gone DOWN as of late (that translates to surface winds of about 130mph, lower than the 140 in the 5PM advisory). I wonder what that's all about...
Once again, I'm wondering if anyone knows where they publiah the latest Dvorak numbers from NHC central - those can be very helpful in predicting intensity swings and such...
DEAR FR: HERE'S AN INTERESTING REPORT/PERSPECTIVE ON IVAN AND PRAYING FOR IVAN:
InJesus Manager Prayers Warren Bare Sep 10, 2004
Hi Folks,
Over the past few weeks I've had the opportunity to witness an absolutely remarkable event on InJesus, and I wanted to share it with you.
As almost everyone is aware, the Caribbean is in the middle of the most powerful hurricane season in recorded history. I read one report saying it had been over 100 years since two hurricanes of this magnitude struck Florida in the same year.
Now a third hurricane, Ivan, is rolling over Jamaica, then Cuba and is currently projected to hit Tampa on Tuesday morning. This projected path is very similar to Charlie.
Ivan has already killed more people than the other two storms. It has had recorded gusts in excess of 180 miles per hour, and when it ran over Grenada yesterday, it damaged 90% of the buildings on the island.
The most remarkable thing from my perspective is that Christians have responded to these storms with a unified outpouring of prayer, both before and after the storms hit. I watched message after message, group after group asking their members to pray for people in the storm path.
As a group, you managers asked hundreds of thousands of people to pray, and the impact was clear. The power of this prayer really struck home for me when Frances stalled for several days off the east coast of Florida and weakened significantly from a category 4 storm before coming ashore.
I was amazed to hear one of the national hurricane commentators say, "It is as if there is something in the atmosphere holding the hurricane at bay, and it will not move again until that factor is gone."
Most of us believe in the miracle working power of prayer, but that does not make it any less amazing when we see God's hand move.
So, on behalf of my family and friends in Florida, I want to thank you for your prayers, and to encourage you in your good works!
Be Blessed! Warren Bare CEO InJesus
Depends heavily on what quadrant of a storm they're in..also there's a time lag for winds to respond to pressure changes.
With recon Dvorak numbers don't matter too much.
Hurricanes rapidly weaken quickly in an unpredictable fashion routinely..and vice-versa. I've seen hurricanes not particularly heading towards land and thus not having any "prayer" directed at them weaken just as rapidly as Frances.
Good lord, according to Radio Jamaica the looting has begun IN ADVANCE of the hurricane.
..My husband cut plywood to fit precisely over windows and nailed them in.
Of course, once the plywood comes off, the outcome is not pretty, and we'll have to repair the ugly holes.
Told ya so. Now I will predict that the storm hits Cuba. I am amazing. Are they hiring at the Weather Channel?
The looting has already started. Now pray tell where are the looters going to go with their stuff. They're taking a chance of getting killed by this bad boy hurricane!!! Jerk-offs!!!!
Jamaica now reporting 150 mph winds. Expecting them for 7-10 hours.
Thanks for the tip!
We've been without phone/computer since returning from Jacksonville Monday----got it back yesterday afternoon.
Many friends have no phone, no electricity....
...ice, refrigerated food, gas is rare....
...schools have been closed all week, traffic lights down all over the city...
..long lines at gas pumps, supermarkets, etc.
I am so weary....don't want to go through this again....someone said it probably will exit through north brevard...sigh
Roofs blew off with this Category 2.....homes are damaged....
...I think I will ride this one out....don't feel like getting on I-95 again :(
That's the Pedro Cays (4 small islands) and the Pedro Bank(large underwater rise of shoals and reefs).
#91..I heard CentCom evacuated last week with Frances?
I just lost the connection to the station--not sure they're still on.
I wonder if they were fighting over the last bag of ice.
Radio Jamaica is back on the air. Good news.
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