Hurricane Ivan - 9/10 thread - 5am update predicts Jamaica tonight, western Florida Monday night(?)

national weather service ^ | 9/10/04 | national weather service

[Diddle E. Squat]

000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT

12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT

24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT

36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT

48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT

72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT

96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT

120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND

[jpsb]

thanks guess us on the Texas Gulf coast (Galveston) had better keep an eye on Ivan for a little longer.

[Dog Gone]

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Ivan stalled out south of Cuba trying to figure out what to do. If that happens, you can throw all the models out the window because every one of them is based on continuing forward motion by this storm.

[ThomasMore]

Good luck and God Bless, brother.

[shield]

Please add me to that PING LIST....;o)

[rang1995]

Well the FSU site is good.. But tonight--fuggatabout it

[mhking]

WFOR-TV is streaming their evening newscast: http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}

HurricaneCity has their live stream up with the Hurricane Watch Net and live radio from Jamaica: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram

[weatherFrEaK]

Thanks for the radio link!

[rang1995]

i qam far from an expert on hurricanes ,but what is that formation above IVAN opposite the carolinas-further out east is that moving away from the US?? is a tropical depression seems to look like circular rotation?? thanks

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

[Truth666]

Jamaica radar loop
http://www.datasync.com/~magee/weather/ivana.gif

[Dog Gone]

Cool. Thanks!

[weatherFrEaK]

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OR TRACK OF
IVAN TODAY. THE HURRICANE HAS A DISTINCT EYE WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS
WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING DURING THE DAY AND THE LAST READING FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 937 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO
120 KNOTS BASED ON WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE IVAN MOVES NEAR OR OVER
JAMAICA WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY WEAKEN THE
HURRICANE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN WILL RE-STRENGTHEN SOME BETWEEN
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA WHERE THERE IS A VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. ONCE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND IVAN SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS
HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
11 KNOTS STEERED BY A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AFTER
THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE
TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS
TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 17.0N 76.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 17.7N 77.5W 115 KT NEAR JAMAICA
24HR VT 11/1800Z 18.8N 78.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 19.9N 79.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 21.3N 81.1W 130 KT NEARING CUBA
72HR VT 13/1800Z 24.7N 82.7W 110 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 34.0N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[weatherFrEaK]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 34


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2004


...Ivan expected to hit Jamaica tonight...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch is effect for Cuba including the Isle of
Youth...and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the
South Coast of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 17.0 north...longitude 76.2 west or about 80 miles... 130
km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr with
a gradual decrease in forward speed. This motion is expected to
bring the core of Ivan to near or over Jamaica tonight or early
Saturday and over the Cayman Islands late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph...220
km/hr...with higher gusts. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter plane
was 937 mb...27.67 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.0 N... 76.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140
mph. Minimum central pressure... 937 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[tutstar]

[Vinnie]

Get out.
I guess you have seen the railroad rail in Marathon with a plaque telling of the man that clung onto it.
A champion swimmer and his wife decided to stay in their condo during hurricane Donna, 1960.
He was never found after the surge swept through.
Batten down and go.
Card Sound road will be impassible well before the main storm gets there and US 1 will be clogged.

[Dog Gone]

This is about as bad an approach to Jamaica as possible. The friction from the lethal NE quadrant hitting the mountains may actually sling the storm northward briefly ensuring that Kingston gets hit as badly as possible.

I'm still not sure why Jamaica radar created an imaginary island south of them. That's just weird.

[Vinnie]

Looking at the water vapor loop I think Ivan will stay just off the Fla. west coast, turn inland above Tampa and ride the remnants of the front right up the Eastern seaboard.

[Howlin]

To us? Seaboard as in out in the ocean?

[K1avg]

Done.

[K1avg]

It's either what's left of Tropical Depression Ten or the tropical wave I was concerned about earlier headed this way.

Either way, I doubt its a big threat. Beyond Ivan, there's another tropical wave out east of the pic you posted that I'm worried about. Could be another Frances or head into the Gulf a la Charley and Ivan. Or it could fizzle. Right now I'm jsut concerned about Ivan.

[Dog Gone]

That may possibly be a little too far east, or at least so I hope. I don't want Ivan coming out in the Atlantic. Unless something weird happens before Cuba, this storm is almost certainly a slam dunk Cat 3 when it approaches the US, possibly a Cat 4, and it could easily survive a Florida peninsula transit. One landfall is all we want from this killer storm.