Posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by bd476
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HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...
A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.
Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.
Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
All the 6 p.m. tropical updates are in Spanish. :)
Is this the current thread....?
Been getting good reports from Jamaica on IRLP.
I believe it is the current thread, until U.S. states begin to be affected. bd? What do you think?
What's the URL again, BK? I've got time to hang out tonight & it'll be interesting.
I feel for Jamaicans. It was explained awhile ago that the land's elevation will play a huge role in the destruction. Much like mountains squeeze moisture out of passing storms here in southern CA, the mountains of Jamaica will suffer biggers winds and more rain than the low levels (although the southern coast of Jamaica has to deal with the surge). A terrible, terrible night all around.
p.s. no rain in the high desert, but the central Mohave seems to have gotten slammed today.
37 deaths already?
some jamaican stations made a report, and then fled
I found IRLP's main page, but http://live.irlp.net:8080/listen.pls doesn't seem to be what I'm looking for.
that figure [37] is for Grenada, right
http://www.voipwx.net/ <--internet feed
Saturday, September 11, 2004 at 09:19 JST (JAPAN TIMES)
KINGSTON Waves two-stories high crashed on Jamaica's eastern shore Friday, flooding homes and washing away roads as Hurricane Ivan's ferocious winds and pounding rains began to lash the island and threatened a direct hit on its densely populated capital. The death toll elsewhere in the Caribbean rose to 37.
Jamaican Prime Minister P.J. Patterson declared a public emergency and pleaded with the half million people considered in danger ? about one in five islanders ? to get to shelters. Many residents, however, refused to leave, fearing their homes would be robbed if abandoned.
"I'm not saying I'm not afraid for my life but we've got to stay here and protect our things," said Lorna Brown, 49, pointing to a stove, television, cooking utensils and large bed crowded into a one-room concrete home on the beach at Montego Bay.
Cuba declared a hurricane watch across the entire island Friday after its leader, Fidel Castro, went on national television warning residents to brace themselves. "Whatever the hurricane does, we will all work together" to rebuild, he said.
In South Florida, long lines reappeared at gas stations and shoppers swarmed home building stores and supermarkets. Forecasters said Ivan could tear through the Keys as early as Monday though there was still a chance the storm would instead move out into the Gulf of Mexico.
Jeez...creepy...batten down Wakita
none of the 14.325 feeds seem to be working right now.... so the IRLP ones are pretty quiet...but there were some Jamaica stations on earlier...
Okay I was wondering why it's so silent. I have the right place tho.
Looking like big headers developing over the SB mountains right now...
you can try tuning it on your drake again!
today is 9/10/2004 and you're a day late and a dollar short, that is unless you want to worry the hell out of us even more than the media does.
At least check out the Nation Hurrican Center before posting stale and frightening news!!!!!
I should have looked at the size of the thread.!
150 mph winds. Next update in two hours. yikes
Wow, talk about bad timing. I'm sorry to hear that. The timetable on TWC is showing a Monday/Tuesday landfall on the Florida panhandle, but as you know this is all subject to change on a whim. There's an outside chance that flight not be in your cards anyway, given the possibility of airport closures.
Earlier, KNBC (Moyers/Williams) showed Fidel going on live television, advising Cubans to prepare for Ivan. Uncle Fidel put a roundtable discussion of 'experts' on live TV and showed maps of projected landfall. Three guesses whose maps he used. (hint: they weren't keyed in Spanish)
This thread started on 9/8
The Sept 10 thread is here http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1211861/posts
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