Hurricane Ivan Upgraded to Category 5 Hurricane

NOAA National Hurricane Center ^ | September 8, 2004 | NOAA National Hurricane Center

[bd476]

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HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.

Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.

Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.

Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.

Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[bd476]

The upper two images from NOAA's GOES show that Ivan is now impacting Venezuela and Columbia. They are getting much wind and rain from Ivan.

Now if the Northern Coast of Venezuela and Columbia would just slow Ivan down and take away some of the pressure, that would be great.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Real shame there isn't an open season on gator... Fries up real well and tastes a lot like chicken.

[jpsb]

This storm is so far south that it might miss the USA completely.

[hobbes1]

Guess No one else has Mind Melded that passage from Hunt for Red October...lol

Seaman Jones : Conn, sonar! Crazy Ivan!
Capt. Bart Mancuso : All stop! Quick quiet!
[the ships engines are shut down completely]
Beaumont : What's goin' on?
Seaman Jones : Russian captains sometime turn suddenly to see if anyone's behind them. We call it "Crazy Ivan." The only thing you can do is go dead. Shut everything down and make like a hole in the water.
Beaumont : So what's the catch?
Seaman Jones : The catch is, a boat this big doesn't exactly stop on a dime... and if we're too close, we'll drift right into the back of him.

[bd476]

It's great to hear that your sister got through relatively unscathed, but it is not good news hearing about the food situation. Sounds like she's living in a City right on the edge with not a lot of give room there.

[Howlin]

Punch here

[twin2]

My husband spoke to people in Barbados and St. Vincent this morning. There is cleanup to be done, but they are thankful. We have not been able to reach anyone from our office in Grenada. It seems to have lost all communication. From looking at the satellite pictures, it may be a while til we hear something.

[Howlin]

I have seen that movie so many times I can practically act it out.

[jrcats]

I'm still cleaning debris from Frances & now have to watch for Ivan. I'm on the west coast north of St. Pete's in Citrus Co. Looks like Ivan is heading for this side of the state again if it makes another right turn. Jeez, I would rather have a blizzard in Mich then 3 Hurricanes.

[Dog Gone]

The models are in pretty close agreement until Ivan gets to Jamaica. After that nobody knows. If it crosses Cuba on the eastern side of the island it will impact the storm more than if it crosses the flatter western end of the island.

[Gabz]

ROFL!!!!!!!!!

[Sam's Army]

"...it is not good news hearing about the food situation. Sounds like she's living in a City right on the edge with not a lot of give room there."

You ain't kiddin. And, if gas doesn't get replenished around the state soon it's gonna be real hard for people to evacuate if this one bears down on us.

We need some prayers, folks.

[bd476]

Great that your parents are getting out of Dodge. There is probably going to be another mass exodus up the freeways if Ivan continues on this maybe/if course. Burned once twice shy is what most Floridians must be feeling now.

Howlin came up with the idea for a fresh new thread. Thanks Howlin!

[Howlin]

Over here now.

[Old Sarge]

The power's coming back on, and the utilities are beginning to come back online. Another problem is damage to peoples' homes. Houses that got smashed by Charley, weren't repaired in time for Frances. And with Ivan possibly inbound, the potential for total loss with many buildings is real.

[expatpat]

Which models were the most accurate in predicting Frances' path?

[bd476]

This is exactly what I suspected several days ago. It seems like it could be a cyclical thing with these hurricanes.

Not that it brings any comfort but it is a little better than thinking of these many major hurricanes continuing yearly as a trend for the future.

[Strategerist]

From http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/grenada.shtml

"Hi,

I have been in cellular contact with close friends in Grenada since last
night and they have said that the destruction is tantamount to Hiroshima.
There is not a tree standing. My friend witnessed homes being submerged and
thousands of trees and galvanize roofs flying through the air. The island is
devastated and I am not sure if everyone is aware of the severity due to
networks, electricity and phone lines being out of service. Grenada needs
relief workers and Aid as soon as possible.

Gabrielle"


It's much much worse than the major media articles indicated, due to lack of communication.

[capt. norm]

Relax; it's only 56 more days.......LOL

Wrong! It's more like 83 days.

Hurricane season ends at midnight November 30th, and we've had them here in Panama City as late as 3 days before Thanksgiving (1985 Kate).

[hchutch]

Ahem... if you're going to call out "Crazy Ivan", Howlin, could you at LEAST have the decvency to post a screen capture from Hunt for Red October when you do it?