Posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by bd476
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...
A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.
Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.
Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
000 WTNT44 KNHC 082036 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004 Today has been a historic day for the Department of Commerce/ National Oceanic Atmopheric Administration/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center. The President of the United States visited the facilities at Miami Florida. A reconnaissance plane just penetrated the eye of the hurricane and reported a minimum pressure of 947 MB. Satellite images indicate that the hurricane continues to be well-organized with a distinct eye...surrounded completely by very deep convection. The outflow is excellent outflow. Initial intensity remains at 120 knots. It appears that Ivan is overcoming the shear and heading toward a more favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment for strengthening. After crossing Cuba...the shear is forecast to increase and the ocean is not as warm. Therefore some weakening is possible. However...Ivan is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane. Ivan has been moving toward the West-Northwest and is now moving 295 degrees at 15 knots. As indicated in the previous forecast... During the next 24 to 48 hours...the Subtropical Ridge to the North of Ivan is expected to change little...keeping Ivan on a West-Northwest track. Thereafter...the ridge is forecast to weaken and a broad mid-level trough will likely become established over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should steer the hurricane on a Northwest and North-Northwest track with a decrease in forward speed. It must be re-emphasized that the forecast track beyond 72 hours continues to be highly uncertain since steering currents are forecast to be weak and not well-defined in the forecast models. The spread in the models continues in the latest 12z run. Some models bring Ivan over Florida and another group move the hurricane toward the Gulf of Mexico. There is no apparent reason to favor one scenario over the other at this time. Therefore...the official forecast remains near the global model consensus and presumes that there will be enough ridging to keep the hurricane on a Northwest to North-Northwest track... bringing dangerous Ivan over Western Cuba in 4 days and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico by Day Five. Forecaster Avila Forecast positions and max winds INITIAL 08/2100Z 13.4N 67.7W 120 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 14.2N 69.8W 125 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 15.5N 72.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 125 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 18.5N 77.0W 130 KT OVER JAMAICA 72HR VT 11/1800Z 20.5N 80.0W 130 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W 120 KT OVER WESTERN CUBA 120HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 83.5W 115 KT $$
GFDL - Kind of a whacky path - enters Cuba near Gitmo on a NW course, goes abruptly WNW to open water, crosses Cuba in the middle on NNW course, then hits the Upper Keys, Homestead, Miami, and West Palm in succession. The good news? Can't possibly be more than a Cat 2 after all that Cuba stuff.
EURO - Jamaica to Southern Cuba, then Central Cuba. Crossing there, hits Homestead, Miami, West Palm, and continues up for another landfall at Charleston by late Sept 14. Again, it can't sustain itself very well if that track happens.
UKMET - Jamaica to the Western tip of Cuba. Takes surprisingly long to get it just that far (late Sunday).
NOGAPS - Jamaica, central Cuba, Ft. Myers, Tampa, W. of JAX, then up into central S. Carolina and beyond by the 13th.
JMA (don't know about this - Beta test) - kinda like the NOGAPS
WAVEWATCH - best US case - rams into the 'Hurricane Killer' (Hispanola), to the central Bahamas, then turns out to sea.
Hurricane Center - Official track takes it over Jamaica, Western Cuba, into the Gulf and uncomfortably close to Ft. Myers by Monday PM.
Accuweather - no real quarrels with NHC; been suggesting a hit between New Orleans and Appalachicola, which is a bit west of the NHC, but certainly in their window. Also warns to pay attention from Houston to Hatteras!
In short, this is another of those "where will the turn come?" storms - just like Frances. Unlike Frances, however, it is a full 7 or 8 degrees further south, which brings a lot of land masses into play that could 'knock it down' before reaching the US.
Reader's Digest Condensed Version:
Yup - that's it: takes that kind of route to get to Florida after the past few weeks.
That's it in a nutshell. That's the best guess we can make today, but I'd be willing to bet that it will read much differently Friday night.
Yes it probably will change again. My hope is for Ivan to get weakened by cooler waters. Hope is allowed. :)
Thanks for your input....boy am I tried of these things. Wonder how long hurricane season will actually last this season; since every thing else as far as the weather is concerned has been extremely strange this season?!!!!
JellyJam, that's a nice graphic showing a wide range of possibilities.
You are most welcome. Thank you for your thoughtful note!
That's really bad news, Truth666. Of course, after reading of the devastation, there would not have been many places for the escaped prisoners to hide.
Ivan might end up staying on a more Western vs. North/Northwestward direction hemmed in by the current Northern ridge. Maybe the mid-level trough over the Gulf will be weak enough to allow entry to Ivan after Ivan is weakened by cool waters after going over Cuba.
However, they keep calling Ivan extremely dangerous so the best idea is for Floridians to be prepared for all contingencies now.
That's from the NBC station in Tampa ... I'll try to post them periodically.
Do you have a laptop computer with an extra battery standing by so that you can keep us updated?
Thinking cool thoughts and hope you can find a way to stay cool.
Ping to current NOAA's Infrared GOES floater image of Hurricane Ivan. It appears that Northern Venezuela is now getting some very intense spin-off storms from Ivan.
Agree with Shield, Doggone. Your input has been educated and well thought out. Thank you for all the insight and facts.
I went to church tonight, and the folks were forming a group. When I asked why, I found out a good friend of mine totally lost the roof off her house during Frances, here in Tampa Bay (just a TS here). They need help to pack up all their stuff and bring it to storage.
I can well understand them freaking about Ivan.
I agree totally. But I think what we were saying is...until we're a little further out on this one...don't scare them even more.
Yep I heard they put out one fire started by a car fire. Are you listening to IRLP? Been so busy here, I am getting way behind. It's just too hot outside.
and
"...Or perhaps it's because local TV meterologists want to drum up local ratings by scaring the audience. That's a pretty effective thing to do.
Bingo, you hit the nail on the head, Dog Gone. Also everything you said about "no reason to scare..." Terrific post!
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 27
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 08, 2004
...Extremely dangerous category four Ivan continues
west-northwestward...new watches and warnings issued...
at 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 PM AST...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire
southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican
Republic westward...including Port au Prince. A Hurricane Watch
also remains in effect for this area.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...and for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica. Hurricane warnings
will likely be required for Jamaica Thursday morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast
of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales. Tropical storm warnings may be required for a portion
of this area on Thursday.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 13.6 north...longitude 69.1 west or about 95 miles...155
km north of Curacao in the Dutch Netherland Antilles. This is also
about 595 miles... 960 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center
of Ivan should move north of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao during
the next several hours and then continue on Route toward the area
near Jamaica.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Maximum sustained winds are near
145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional
strengthening is possible tonight...followed by fluctuations in
strength.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb...27.70 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...13.6 N... 69.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Beven
$$
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.