LABOR DAY CNN-GALLUP POLL, BUSH 52% KERRY 45%

September 6, 2004 | MrChips

[MrChips]

Just announced on CNN.

[ride the whirlwind]

Larry Sabato on FNC just cautioned that though the polls look good, anyone following the fundamentals of the race would make no mistake but that this is still likely to be a close race.

That said, I think it would be great fun to get a look at the (R) and (D) internal polling right now.

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[KQQL]

Bush got 2% bounce among RV and 4% among LV voters.

---

Historical Convention Bounces, 1964-2004 Gallup Polls, Registered Voters



Year


2004 Kerry -1 G.W. Bush 2

2000 Gore 8 G.W. Bush 8

1996 Clinton 5 Dole 3

1992 Clinton 16 G.H.W. Bush 5

1988 Dukakis 7 G.H.W. Bush 6

1984 Mondale 9 Reagan 4

1980 Carter 10 Reagan 8

1976 Carter 9 Ford 5

1972 McGovern 0 Nixon 7

1968 Humphrey 2 Nixon 5

1964 Johnson 3 Goldwater 5

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12922

[ohioWfan]

Take a look here.

It's all garbage, of course, but the rumors are out there....

IMO, it can only help the President because it's so idiotic.

(btw, I believe Kitty may BELONG in an institution).

[ohioWfan]

How can you support a claim that President Bush is gay, tx?? It's preposterous!

She's just making a buck.......a case of classless attacking class. She's a total loser.

[montag813]

This just shows that it is still a damn close race and we need to fight like hell. Bush led right into election day against Gore and Al's troops still eke'd out enormous voter fraud to "win" the popular vote and enable 46,000 New Yorkers to also vote in Florida at the same time (which means that Bush REALLY won Florida by 587 votes PLUS at least 23,000 votes...wasn't even close!) We have to remain vigilant.

On the other side is Soros, Bing, Lewis and $125 million in the form of a 527 named American Coming Together (ACT), plus the entire resources of the DNC. On our side, the RNC (www.rnc.com), plus...a single 527 named American Victory Fund (www.avfund.com) with a little over $500,000 raised in 2 weeks. That's it! So we have to VOLUNTEER for the GOP/RNC and donate to groups like American Victory to match ACT/DNC Lawyer-for-Lawyer, poll watcher-for-poll watcher, across every single battleground state.

The Left will pull out all the stops to attempt to defraud Americans of a Bush victory on Nov 2. Let's support our side and make sure this doesn't happen. Please volunteer!

[CyberAnt]

Didn't several of these idiots give the President a 3-5 pt bounce BEFORE THE CONVENTION.

Some commented at the time that it was done in order to show Bush with a tiny bounce, when in fact it was a HUGE bounce, and showed Kerry with more losses.

[CyberAnt]

Remember the rule of pollsters .. if a campaign is running below 45% .. then the campaign is in trouble.

The dems/libs have continuously shown Kerry above 45%, and Bush below 45% - most ususally at 41-43%.

These idiots are playing with the numbers to make their candidate look more favorable than he is. IT'S NOT GOING TO WORK .. KERRY IS A LOSER AND HE's GOING TO LOSE - BIG TIME.

[Richard Kimball]

Another point on the 52% for Bush is that Kerry can no longer count on persuading undecided voters. Even if he gets all the undecideds, he still loses by four. He must convince voters who have already decided to vote for Bush to change their minds. This is a more difficult proposition.

[ableChair]

Funny how all the historical bumps after 1972 favored Dems.

[ambrose]

Successful convention.

Now how much of the lead is "air" and how much of it is real?

It seems like the Hurricane spoiled Kerry's plans to slime W. immediately after the convention...

[POA2]

52-45 - This is great news? - Have we broke down the internals yet? -

7pt lead, just what many of us were suspecting after looking through the NewsWeek poll -

[Dan from Michigan]

That's the big poll.

Still isn't over though. This is going to be a fight.

[WhistlingPastTheGraveyard]

Still closer than it has any business being, but I'll take it.

[RWR8189]

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader Based on Registered Voters

	September 3-5			August 23-25			August 9-11
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	46	48	4	46	46	4	45	46	5
Gender
Men	43	51	5	42	51	4	44	47	3
Women	48	46	3	49	42	4	46	44	6
Race
Whites	40	55	3	40	52	4	39	53	3
Non-whites	68	24	6	69	22	3	68	17	11
Age
18-49	45	48	5	45	46	5	45	46	6
50-64	46	48	3	44	50	4	46	44	4
65+	47	49	1	49	45	1	44	47	2
Region
East	48	46	3	51	39	5	55	34	5
Midwest	45	49	4	49	43	4	43	48	2
South	43	51	4	38	56	1	40	54	4
West	47	47	5	49	42	8	43	43	9
Education
Post-graduate	51	44	1	54	41	3	50	44	4
College graduate	38	58	3	53	41	2	49	42	5
Some college	46	50	3	42	50	4	45	46	5
High school or less	46	46	6	43	47	5	42	47	5
Income
$75,000 or more	43	54	2	40	57	2	39	54	4
$50,000-$74,999	41	54	4	40	51	7	45	50	4
$30,000-$49,999	52	41	6	45	48	3	45	42	4
Less than $30,000	49	43	5	56	33	5	53	37	7
Ideology
Conservative	22	74	4	20	74	3	18	74	4
Moderate	54	40	3	55	37	3	56	33	5
Liberal	82	10	4	78	11	9	81	9	7
Partisanship
Republicans	6	91	2	9	88	2	6	89	2
Independents	43	44	8	46	37	8	44	37	10
Democrats	90	7	2	88	8	2	87	6	5

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry Based on Registered Voters

	Sep 3-5		Aug 23-25		Aug 9-11		Jul 30-Aug 1
	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	48	49	48	47	47	49	48	48
Gender
Men	45	52	45	51	44	49	45	52
Women	50	46	51	44	49	48	51	45
Race
Whites	42	55	42	54	40	54	42	55
Non-whites	69	25	72	23	73	23	72	23
Age
18-49	48	48	48	47	47	49	47	50
50-64	47	48	44	51	46	45	51	44
65+	48	50	50	45	46	49	48	48
Region
East	51	45	54	39	58	37	53	44
Midwest	47	48	48	45	43	50	51	45
South	45	52	40	56	41	56	42	55
West	49	48	53	45	48	46	50	47
Education
Post-graduate	52	44	54	40	51	46	53	44
College graduate	40	58	56	42	51	45	44	54
Some college	45	50	41	54	46	50	48	50
High school or less	51	47	48	47	45	49	49	46
Income
$75,000 or more	43	55	41	56	41	56	42	55
$50,000-$74,999	44	53	43	54	46	50	44	54
$30,000-$49,999	54	42	47	48	45	46	51	46
Less than $30,000	51	43	59	35	55	43	61	34
Ideology
Conservative	24	74	20	75	19	77	20	76
Moderate	56	40	56	38	58	37	57	39
Liberal	84	13	85	12	85	10	88	12
Partisanship
Republicans	7	90	9	89	6	92	6	92
Independents	49	46	50	39	47	42	50	43
Democrats	90	7	90	8	90	8	92	7

[dvwjr]

As always, thanks again.

Should have the numbers up on a new thread tonight, mainly for the R/D/I comparisons for the Gallup three-way. But looking at a Gallup +2% RNC convention bounce for Bush, as compared to a negative (-4.31%) DNC convention bounce for Kerry among registered voters looks good enough for Bush.


dvwjr

[KQQL]

only a 2% bounce among rv

[Dan from Michigan]

Kitty Kelly is the author who invented a 'thing' between Sinatra and nancy reagan i recall, and exagerrated nancy's superstitious nature...

John Doe's blog says that back in 71, John Kerry and Jane Fonda had an affair.......

[finnman69]

Thats a 5 pt bounce

[finnman69]

USA Today is reporting a 5 pt bounce, not 2 points.

http://slate.msn.com/id/2106296/

The highly-anticipated Gallup-USA Today post-convention Labor Day poll shows Bush with a 52-45-1 lead and a 5-point convention-week bounce in a three-way race

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-06-poll_x.htm

Bush leads Kerry by 7 points
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush widened his lead over John Kerry after a combative Republican National Convention deepened questions about the Democratic candidate's leadership, especially on terrorism. (Related link: Poll results)
As the campaign enters its last eight weeks, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday shows Bush at 52%, Kerry at 45% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 1% among likely voters. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry by 2 percentage points.

Among registered voters, Bush was at 48%, Kerry at 46% and Nader at 4%.