[RWR8189]

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader Based on Registered Voters

	September 3-5			August 23-25			August 9-11
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	46	48	4	46	46	4	45	46	5
Gender
Men	43	51	5	42	51	4	44	47	3
Women	48	46	3	49	42	4	46	44	6
Race
Whites	40	55	3	40	52	4	39	53	3
Non-whites	68	24	6	69	22	3	68	17	11
Age
18-49	45	48	5	45	46	5	45	46	6
50-64	46	48	3	44	50	4	46	44	4
65+	47	49	1	49	45	1	44	47	2
Region
East	48	46	3	51	39	5	55	34	5
Midwest	45	49	4	49	43	4	43	48	2
South	43	51	4	38	56	1	40	54	4
West	47	47	5	49	42	8	43	43	9
Education
Post-graduate	51	44	1	54	41	3	50	44	4
College graduate	38	58	3	53	41	2	49	42	5
Some college	46	50	3	42	50	4	45	46	5
High school or less	46	46	6	43	47	5	42	47	5
Income
$75,000 or more	43	54	2	40	57	2	39	54	4
$50,000-$74,999	41	54	4	40	51	7	45	50	4
$30,000-$49,999	52	41	6	45	48	3	45	42	4
Less than $30,000	49	43	5	56	33	5	53	37	7
Ideology
Conservative	22	74	4	20	74	3	18	74	4
Moderate	54	40	3	55	37	3	56	33	5
Liberal	82	10	4	78	11	9	81	9	7
Partisanship
Republicans	6	91	2	9	88	2	6	89	2
Independents	43	44	8	46	37	8	44	37	10
Democrats	90	7	2	88	8	2	87	6	5

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry Based on Registered Voters

	Sep 3-5		Aug 23-25		Aug 9-11		Jul 30-Aug 1
	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	48	49	48	47	47	49	48	48
Gender
Men	45	52	45	51	44	49	45	52
Women	50	46	51	44	49	48	51	45
Race
Whites	42	55	42	54	40	54	42	55
Non-whites	69	25	72	23	73	23	72	23
Age
18-49	48	48	48	47	47	49	47	50
50-64	47	48	44	51	46	45	51	44
65+	48	50	50	45	46	49	48	48
Region
East	51	45	54	39	58	37	53	44
Midwest	47	48	48	45	43	50	51	45
South	45	52	40	56	41	56	42	55
West	49	48	53	45	48	46	50	47
Education
Post-graduate	52	44	54	40	51	46	53	44
College graduate	40	58	56	42	51	45	44	54
Some college	45	50	41	54	46	50	48	50
High school or less	51	47	48	47	45	49	49	46
Income
$75,000 or more	43	55	41	56	41	56	42	55
$50,000-$74,999	44	53	43	54	46	50	44	54
$30,000-$49,999	54	42	47	48	45	46	51	46
Less than $30,000	51	43	59	35	55	43	61	34
Ideology
Conservative	24	74	20	75	19	77	20	76
Moderate	56	40	56	38	58	37	57	39
Liberal	84	13	85	12	85	10	88	12
Partisanship
Republicans	7	90	9	89	6	92	6	92
Independents	49	46	50	39	47	42	50	43
Democrats	90	7	90	8	90	8	92	7

[dvwjr]

As always, thanks again.

Should have the numbers up on a new thread tonight, mainly for the R/D/I comparisons for the Gallup three-way. But looking at a Gallup +2% RNC convention bounce for Bush, as compared to a negative (-4.31%) DNC convention bounce for Kerry among registered voters looks good enough for Bush.


dvwjr

[KQQL]

only a 2% bounce among rv

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

Interesting huge swing in college graduates voting choice.

[Numbers Guy]

Similar 83-point advantages among their own party, Kerry up 3 points among registered independents, yet Bush up by 1 point overall = Gallup sampled 2% more registered Republicans than Democrats. That implies that Bush's 7-point lead among likely voters is actually smaller than that, more like 4 points. Good news, but not as good as it might seem at first blush.