Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

.


Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






=========================================



First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



=========================================



EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




=========================================



















Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



.

[bd476]

Weather Underground as of 6:09 PM EDT on September 3, 2004

"Strong tropical storm force wind gusts across Southeast Florida tonight...

... Areas affected...

This statement applies to persons in Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Collier, Hendry, Glades and Mainland Monroe counties.

... Watches and warnings ...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Southeast Florida coast and Lake Okeechobee including Metro Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade.

An inland hurricane wind warning remains in effect for all inland South Florida counties.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for all South Florida counties through Sunday except coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe."

[Gabz]

Have you heard from anyone in FL yet???

Got myself a 6 pack of Killians Irish Red...

Hangover city!!!!!!!!!!!

I can drink beer all day and not have a hangover - I get a hangover halfway through one of those. I love them - they hate me.

[Severa]

Yeah as small as I am I can only drink 2 in a night. well then again make that 1. I want to be able to walk upstairs without incident.

[MonroeDNA]

Back to all calm in Fort Lauderdale...eyes glued to the forecast maps.

[Gabz]

Good girl!!!!!!!!!!!

Charlie was a glitch for us, Gaston ignored this part of the state, it doesn't look like Frances is going to bother us................Ivan is the one I'm concerned about for us now.

I'm praying for everyone in the path of FRANCES - she is a monster.

[bd476]

Stay safe, keep watch and relax as much as you can.

Here's an updated look at Hurricane Frances:

Real Time GOES Imagery - Western Atlantic Visible Loop

[NautiNurse]

that's lovely color coordination on the paint job.

lol--I had compliments about my penmanship for Charley. It's looking more like bona fide graffiti this week--exhaustion is setting in.

[bd476]

Rest up now then, Nauti.

How far up the coast are you? Prayers continuing that the storms weaken.

[NautiNurse]

Wow, you're taking no chances, even with Ivan!

My neighbors suggested the Ivan message. On the bright side, our neighborhood has been very neighborly the past three weeks with all the storms. Everyone milling around and chatting mornings and afternoons. I see a block party on the horizon. Could be as soon as day three without electricity. Loads of freezer food to cook and eat.

[blam]

"Borrowed the new paint color from my next door neighbor. People are driving past the house to read all the windows..."

Hurricane Art, who would have guessed?

[bd476]

New report "(Unclear location: Bahamas) Time 1849; 28.91 inches barometric pressure and rising; 110 degrees wind direction; trees are down; some boats not visible in harbor, at least one boat thought to be destroyed;

Another report: "Little Harbor Bahamas 1840 pm local time; winds out of N/E; winds estimated 75-100 mph; 98.0 mb barometric pressure; 3.5 inches rain measured until the gauge fell over."

[SuziQ]

If the storm comes in at Melbourne, Port St. Lucie will be spared some of the damage because it will be on the Southwest side of it. Areas to the east and north of a hurricane always get the brunt of it. There will probably still be some winds and rain, but not nearly as bad as Melbourne and areas north of it.

[shield]

Thanks for that update...will advise friends in CA.

[Sam Cree]

Hi, SuziQ!

[bd476]

Check out the latest look from that Jacksonville webcam you posted, Lainie. We're not going to see clouds like that here anytime soon.

[janetgreen]

Thanks for the update, Suzi. We're praying that all of you stay safe. I've called two of the Port St. Lucie shelters, but as I expected, they are BUSY!

[CedarDave]

I count three cranes in the air. If the storm comes through, they will be on the ground and take out whatever's in their path on the way down.

[rollo tomasi]

Any weather experts out there that think Frances and the front coming from the west (Over Mississippi right now) can meet and cause a "Perfect Storm"? Looks kind of scary for all of the southeast if that happens.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Hugs for you and your friends - stay safe!

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

The latest visible loop shows the eye going right through Lake Wales, where my parents live.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Click on "Forecast Points" in the upper right corner to see where they project the eye to travel.