Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[rwfromkansas]

Eye still not defined, but convection is firing around the center...

[dirtboy]

It was there earlier, and then some storms wrapped back around again.

[lainie]

I got the Snellville GA link to work but there is not much data to go on. Does it go in & out? Got it to run on iTunes using a Mac.

[bd476]

Wow, that's community spirit if I've ever seen it. Good on ya for taking in two families and God Bless you all for helping each other out! Hang in there and stay safe.

[lainie]

they're predicting it will take nearly three days to traverse the state?

[Sam Cree]

Yes, Andrew, in the Perrine area of South Dade.

[bd476]

"Uncle Fud said: Do you think they know Mother Nature does have a backup system to deal with that?"

They could try Nature's Best, but chances are it's too late in the game. After 10 weeks, the river has probably run dry, if there was anything there to begin with.

[NautiNurse]

convection is firing around the center...

Looks same to me on visible loop

[Sam's Army]

How's traffic on I-95 been today?

[Chemist_Geek]

Oh, great, right at me!

(The UKMET track aims Frances right at Detroit...)

I'm glad it doesn't go west along the Gulf coast; heck, it looks like it won't even get into the Gulf to regenerate itself.

[bd476]

Live IRLP reports: "Alpha India Delta reports: Locale: Hopetown time 2033 Zulu 987.8 mb and falling; high winds estimated at 90 mph; continuing driving rain."

[Sam Cree]

Looks like she hasn't done much more than wobble north a little in the last 3 hours.

[bd476]

Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina with a look at the skies:

[brothers4thID]

Boy she has slowed down. 8mph- that is slower than DC traffic.

I'm praying she weakens more! Stay safe Florida Freepers!

[bd476]

Live IRLP: "Bahamas Time 2045Z; winds sustained 70 mph; gusts 85 mph estimated; visibility 1/8-1/16th mile and 985.6 barometric pressure and rising with squalls..."

[lainie]

WJXT studio cam, Jacksonville

[JoeSixPack1]

Glad to hear that.

I'm in Port St. Lucie. Nuf said.

[bd476]

Jacksonville Beach Webcam

[Chemist_Geek]

Good luck. I hope things will be OK.

[lainie]

Downtown Orlando ..
http://a.www.orlandoweather.com/downtownorlandocam/index.html future reference, click to check