Posted on 09/02/2004 2:17:04 PM PDT by KQQL
John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Kerry, 45% say they would vote for Bush, and 3% say they would vote for Nader.
Among registered voters considered likely to vote in November, Bush is at 48% and Kerry is at 47% in a two-way ballot. With Nader in the race, Bush and Kerry are tied at 47% each among likely voters and Nader is at 3%.
September 1 Bush Kerry Undecided
All voters 46% 48% 6% Likely voters 48% 47% 5%
All voters: Republicans (35%) 86% 8% 6% Democrats (37%) 9% 84% 7% Independents (28%) 44% 49% 7%
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
Bush Job Approval Ratings
9/1/04 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 45% 48% 7%
Economy 43% 51% 6%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
ARG had Gore winning by double digits in Louisiana, Tennessee and Kentucky in 2000.
ARG!-Charlie Brown
This translates into a MINIMUM 3 point lead for Bush, if not more because ARG is the most liberal biased poll out there.
Continental United States
All voters Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar
Bush 45% 45% 44% 45% 44% 43% 42%
Kerry 46% 49% 47% 46% 45% 48% 48%
Nader 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2%
Undecided 6% 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8%
1014 registered voters, Aug 30-Sep 1,
MOE ± 3 percentage points
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
@
This is the only poll in the last 3 weeks to have Bush's approval rating below 50% - I think we can safely discount this one as either biased or an outlier...
ARG, along with Zogby and Newsweak are the most pro-Rat pollsters.
Even still, they have W up by 1. Look at the trend. 4 point K lead flips to 1 point W. lead.
Its crap. This is about the only major poll to NOT show W winning.
This is looking more like '88 all the time. Kerry is gonna go the way of Dukakis and W will get 55% of the vote.
Rasmussen has Bush up by 4 today among likely voters.
ECONMIST POLl # 9
Bush 45% Kerry 45% Nader 2%
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovI.pdf
How things going in USA
Approve 38%
BUSH JA @ 43%
KQQL and COURAGE.
ARG is arguably the most left-leaning of all the polls out there. If they can only muster a tie, I really like W's position heading into the homestretch.
Bush 45% Kerry 45% Nader 2%
I don't know how accurate the Economist poll is historically... but even this poll shows Bush gaining 3 points since their last poll. Bush has the big MO!
Trend is looking good in the Economist poll.. but Economist poll is a Zogbyish e-mail poll., I believe.
Economist isn't random sample. they keep asking the same people over and over, I believe via email.
ECONMIST POLL # 9
Bush 45% Kerry 45% Nader 2%
How things going in USA
Approve 38%
BUSH JA @ 43%
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovI.pdf
"Sample drawn from a recruited panel and weighted to be representative of the US over 18 population"
They don't share their weighting formula or their recruiting process. They don't even use random sampling. Not a scientific poll.
My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
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Right now W's average approval ratings is 49.2% from last 10 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.
So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.
W/O Nader
Bush 49.7%
Kerry 49.3%
Others 1.0%
Bush 49.7%
Kerry 48.3%
Nader 1.2%
Others 0.8%
MOE+/-1%
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