My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
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Right now W's average approval ratings is 49.2% from last 10 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.
So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.
W/O Nader
Bush 49.7%
Kerry 49.3%
Others 1.0%
Bush 49.7%
Kerry 48.3%
Nader 1.2%
Others 0.8%
MOE+/-1%
Did you ever explain why you revised the amount of the vote W would get above his approval rating down from 1.5% to 0.5%? If you did, I missed it, and I have been curious.
Thanks.
Nader's votes are not all coming from Kerry. At least 1/3 come from Bush. In some polls it is 50/50.
do you include Economist in those numbers?