HEADLINE: Bush Overtakes Kerry in Latest L.A. Times Poll

LA TIMES ^ | 8/25/04 | Ronald Brownstein

[Blood of Tyrants]

WASHINGTON -- President Bush heads into next week's Republican national convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that John F. Kerry has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

For the first time this year in a Times survey, Bush led Kerry in the presidential race, drawing 49 percent among registered voters, compared to 46 percent for the Democrat. In a Times Poll just before the Democratic convention last month, Kerry held a 2 percentage point advantage over Bush.

That small shift from July was within the poll's margin of error. But it fit with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty.

Although a solid majority of Americans say they believe Kerry served honorably in Vietnam, the poll showed that the fierce attacks on the senator from a group of Vietnam veterans criticizing both his performance in combat and anti-war protests at home have left some marks: Kerry suffered small but consistent erosion compared to July on questions relating to his Vietnam experience, his honesty and his fitness to serve as commander in chief.

[snooker]

Thanks, after Arnie was polling 25% in their poll and won with 48% I don't take much stock in a LATimes anything.

Definitely a tailwind, now if Bush can just surf the wind until Nov ... Yeah Haaaa, give me that old Dean scream.

[alwaysconservative]

sKerry is such an idiotic goof he put this stuff on HIS OWN WEBSITE? LOLOLOLOL! Thanks for the great find!

He left his job because he was "Uninterested in work"! That pretty well sums up why he doesn't talk about his Senate career as well, doesn't it? LOLOLOL! This just keeps getting better and better!

[.cnI redruM]

It's not what Kerry did in the war, it's what came afterwords. By joining the protest movement and degrading other American service members still in Vietnam, he destroyed his opportunity to campaign as a war hero. This is why the second SwiftVet ad has clobbered him so badly.

[ground_fog]

The more the Democrats cry fould about the Swifties so called ties to Bush-the more it will expose the real ties and corruption to moveon.org-which has talen in 10 time as much money attaccking Bush

Kerry IS going down hard

[Blood of Tyrants]

It does help. From more traditional sources, the number of people who identify themselves with one party or another is roughly equal among the two parties (actually I thing that "R" is a couple of points ahead of "D"). However, a MUCH higher percentage of people wo identify themselves with a "D" plan to vote for Bush than the other way around, yet their poll is a statistical dead heat. Is the LA Slimes "special sauce".

[dangus]

Thanks.

That "adjusted" result you posted is one of the ways polls convert their raw data (registered voters) into "Likely voters." The problem is most of the polls are showing about a 6-9 percent partisan favoring towards the Democrats, so the LAT poll which had Bush down 6 and a 12-point partisan advantage for the Dems, this seems in line with other polls, at least. This then suggests that maybe it is not a bad sampling and really represents a shift in party identification. It seems that's what Gallup decided. Their post-convention poll showed Bush up 6% among likely voters, and down 3 among registered, a spread of nine points. Their last poll was up 3 among likely voters and up 2 among registered, a gap of only on point.

So why the Dem-leaning sampling? Gallup doesn't seem to pursuing a partisan agenda. Have significant numbers of Republicans switched parties since '02? Are Republicans more likely to have only cell phones? Has the media's bashing of Bush become so intense that we have large numbers of closet Republicans? Or has a sampling quirk in Gallup brought them in line with other outfits which are just uniformly partisan?

My sense is that Bush is probably up about 2 or three points in the popular vote, but that if the election were held today, he's be in big trouble in the electoral college. Maybe this is what Rove means when he says "Bush is down a few." But I see Bush beating the polls based on strong turnout; Most conservatives LIKE their man and are out to get him elected. Liberals feel kind of stuck with Kerry, and his flip-flopping on the war will make liberal-trending apolitical types stay home.

So, on election day, RVs show Bush up 2, but he winds up up 5, winning about 100 electoral votes by less than 3%. Pubbies gain 3 in the Senate, and O'Connor and Renquist retire while Stevens just doesn't show up for work one day. I think 54 is enough to go "nuclear."

[RockinRight]

In other news, journalists inside the Kerry campaign headquarters heard this phrase:

"Man the lifeboats, we're going down!"

[John O]

Reminds me of the day the Jehovah's Witness' came to our door, gave the spiel, wnated a donation. My wife had no money on here, so she gave the guy a couple of cans of soup. 2 days later he shows up again, parks the car, opens the trunk, unloads a couple of wheelchairs and proceeds to get 2 people from the car into them, to kikc the panhandling up a notch from somebody he was sure was a bonafide "mark".

Hopefully she gave them some crackers to go with the soup

[John O]

I don't need to be pinged to threads like these, please...

Can we ping you when we win?

[comebacknewt]

This simply can't be true. Bill Schneider on CNN last night argued for 10 minutes about how badly the SBVT ads were hurting Bush.

[Tuscaloosa Goldfinch]

I couldn't agree more. Traditional marriage has deep roots for most Americans (even if many fear saying so for sake of "political correctness"). It is a galvanizing issue that I believe transcends even party lines -- such that when push comes to shove, if Bush presses decisively on this issue he will pick up far more Democrat voters than he will allienate Repulican voters - IMHO.

And I agree with your IMHO. :-D LOL

[foreshadowed at waco]

I saw that interview with Oliphant...he said that these Vietnam attacks have always come out during Kerry's campaigns but that he has been able to beat them back...but...as someone on this forum suggested that was in Massachusetts....the rest of the country is not Massachusetts (thank God!).

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

Ramsey Clark to Join Panel for Saddam’s Defense

arabnews press release 25 August 2004

NOTE :
Ramsey Clark is pictured below with Kerry and
Vietnam phony vet Al Hubbard
Who was head of the
Vietnam Veterans Against the War movement.



NEW:
FReeper smith288 has an online version of
Kerry's "The New Soldier"
You can read it without downloading pdf files!
CLICK HERE

From Kerry's "The New Soldier":
Al Hubbard Sgt., 22 Troop Carrier Squadron Aug. ’65-June ’66

Emotions: Walking down the flight line at Saigon past stacks of aluminum cases containing American bodies and past stacks of aluminum luggage containing American currency. Seeing the tight, sad face of an Airman loading the bodies aboard a dirty Air Force Transport and the wide smiling face of a stewardess greeting the passengers aboard a clean Pan American Clipper Jet. Hearing a Vietnamese beg you to leave his country and an American colonel tells you to bomb his country. Hearing a Vietnamese invite you to live in his home, after the war and an American explain why you can’t live in his block, after the war. Flying over barren, brown, safe American held terrain and over lush, green unsafe enemy terrain. Feeling happy to be leaving a country in which you do not belong and sad to be returning to a country in which you are not allowed to belong. Sacrificing a portion of your consciousness so you won’t have to deal with being there and building mental blocks so you won’t have to deal with having been there.

- Al Hubbard, proven fraud who never set foot in Viet Nam. The only Vietnamese he ever met was when he was collaborating with the North Vietnamese in Paris
on the American Communist Party's nickel.
John Kerry's explanation: "He (Hubbard) simply exaggarated his particular position.
But nobody knew it at the time. And those things happen."

The New Soldier, (46 pages)
By John Kerry
and Vietnam Veterans
Against the War
PART I (pdf file)
PART II (pdf file)
PART III (pdf file)

Kerry hopes everyone
in the USA gets this book!

NEW:
“Without question,
we were held captive longer
because of the anti-war people,
the Kerrys, the Fondas and Haydens,
the names we knew over there -
they encouraged the enemy to hang on.”
Excerpt from “Stolen Honor” website
- Leo Thorsness
Former Vietnam POW
CLICK HERE



Send this url for the online version

http://ejsmithweb.com/fr/newsoldier/

Send this url for the Stolen Honor website

http://www.stolenhonor.com/

Print this out (46 pages) and disribute it,
especially to the liberals you know.

Copy and paste the links to everyone you know.

http://nomayo.mu.nu/archives/New%20Soldier%20Inro.pdf

http://nomayo.mu.nu/archives/New%20Soldier.pdf

http://nomayo.mu.nu/archives/New%20Soldier%20Epilogue.pdf

[Bombardier]

Thanks for making this more clear!

[KC_Conspirator]

Now I'm really confused. Tom Oliphant on Scarborough Monday night claimed Kerry WANTS SBV issue to continue.

I saw that too. That was an obvious lie or MA liberals are REALLY out of touch with the rest of America. The fact is that Kerry has been seriously wounded; he's been taken down Johnson!

After hearing that idiot Oliphant speak, I concluded that Kerry had never really been taken to task for his anti-war/liberal views in MA for 30 years.

[Grampa Dave]

The big whiner's response to the LA SLIMES Poll!

[RockinRight]

Get the butter and jelly out folks, cuz Kerry is TOAST!

[happygrl]

See what Flashbunny has written:

see the link in my sig line - it's only been reported on a few web sites - insight mag and gogov.com - but the head of gogov has given the story to the RNC. I suspect sometime in september or october there will be a major push to get the truth about john kerry and outsourcing jobs to china into the media stream.

The Link: http://www.flashbunny.org/commentary/kerryoutsourced.html

[white_wolf]

Exactly right! The issue must be made to be Kerry, not Bush. It must not be over the top, but it must be done.

Even many mainstream, union-type Dems, when confronted with the prospect of four years of credible attacks on Kerry, a al Clinton, will simply fade into the woodwork and not vote.

[mosquitobite]

About gay marriage, I disagree.

I'm a 28YO Republican. I like to think of myself as an libertarian Republican and would vote libertarian if they'd put someone out there that actually had a chance to win.

Putting the gay marriage issue out there turns away voters of my age who believe it's none of the government's business. I believe in civil unions for them, but let the churches say no to marriage. I'm afraid it WOULD hurt Bush to keep pushing the amendment.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/100702A.html
South Park Republicans are true Republicans, though they do not look or act like Pat Robertson. They believe in liberty, not conformity. They can enjoy watching The Sopranos even if they are New Jersey Italians. They can appreciate the tight abs of Britney Spears or Brad Pitt without worrying about the nation's decaying moral fiber. They strongly believe in liberty, personal responsibility, limited government, and free markets. However, they do not live by the edicts of political correctness.
Pat Buchanan pushes a Christian/protectionist agenda that has absolutely nothing in common with the Libertarian folks who support free trade and complete separation of church and state. Depending on whom you ask, "Conservative" can mean smaller government of lower hemlines. (Hint: South Park Republicans are more likely to get Cosmo than the Weekly Standard.)