Poll Shows Kerry Hurt By Attacks (LA TIMES POLL Bush 49% Kerry 46%)

Political Wire ^ | August 25, 2004

[RWR8189]

Political Wire got an advance look at the new Los Angeles Times poll showing President Bush "moving slightly" ahead of Sen. John Kerry "for the first time this year." Bush had the support of 49% of registered voters, compared to 46% for Kerry.

The newspaper's analysis indicates Kerry "has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam."

The "small shift" from last month's poll "is within the poll's margin of error. But it fits with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty."

Independent voters split evenly, but Bush's "tentative new advantage" seems to be "his greater success at onsolidating his base. While just 3% of voters who call themselves Republicans say they will vote for Kerry, Bush is drawing 15% just over one-seventh of all Democrats, and fully one-fifth 20% of Democrats who consider themselves moderate or conservative, the poll found."

[rushmom]

Kerry was up 2 points.

[Admin Moderator]

Please do not post full length LATimes.

[mlbford2]

The DUmmines are going into full vapor lock mode. They say it is time for the Dems to go negative on Bush. What can that possibly mean. Maybe they will have an ad with Bush photoshopped in a male orgy in the waiting room of an abortion clinic with a sign around his neck that says "I hate n*ggers". Because everything else has already been done to smear Bush.This could be the only way to elevate the crap they have already dished out on the man.

[COURAGE]

The EC is slowly showing the change. Right now Kerry 274EV and Bush 255EV.

[MOgirl]

Hello,

Thanks for the visual! Yuck!

Glad to be here, MOgirl

[olde north church]

OKC muslim bomber/terrorists don't eat pork chops!

[RWR8189]

They are actually saying things like that over there.

Not even exaggerating.

[olde north church]

That's was my first thought when I read that. Ashcroft is no dummy. I also read President Bush has a low profile SEC lookout going on?

[Soul Seeker]

I think your analysis is fairly accurate.

I would like to stipulate that while I'm suspicious of polls due to the agenda of the ones conducting the ones, I do lend credence to the bahavior of candidates.

Anyone that has paid attention the last few months to their reactions cannot miss G.W. is appearing far more self assured than he did earlier in the year during the sustained WMD/Abu Grabib hits. Meanwhile Kerry has slowly started to disintegrate, with the Swiftees speeding the process of his meltdown. It is entirely possible MSM may hype the numbers to diminish a bump but that alone would not explain Kerry's behavior, completely irrational unless he is sinking fast.

I've always felt G.W.'s strategy was to build to the election, rather than build a large lead and watch it disintegrate at end. For the most part he has stayed close and let the "leader" exhaust most of his strength.

I still think this election, barring the unknown, is going to break for one candidate or another rather than end up close. My cautious hope is G.W. is the recipient of vote approval.

[calenel]

"Look for Bush to come out and order Ashcroft to investigate links between ALL 527 organizations, and subpoena documentation from BOTH parties."

Oh that would be SWELL! Are you predicting (and based on what) or just wishing?

[Paleo Conservative]

This is before a post convetion bounce.

[KQQL]

RV

I bet it's worse with LV

[MOgirl]

Hello,
Great analysis. Re: the debates: I truly believe that Kerry will not be able to keep down and hidden his ego and arrogance. That will not play well with a whole lot of Americans. W will come across as what he is, and Kerry will come across as what HE is, as well.

Glad to be here, MOgirl

[justshutupandtakeit]

Add not attending 78% of the Intelligence Committee hearings while a member including ALL those after 9/11. Very responsible and dependable.

[olde north church]

About now, Terry McAuliffe is in about the same position as the warden at the end of the "Shawshank Redemption" [I don't want to hear anything about Morgan Fairchild or Tim Robbins. I watched it on cable and the movie was great anyhoo!]
Has anybody heard a peep from Terry Boy in the 21 days since the Swifties hit the scene? Uh-Uh, Hillary is probably feeding them more anti-Kerry documents.
Next, the black vote will be self supressed from the pulpit by black ministers. They won't support Bush outright, but they won't let their congregations vote for Kerry.
Finally, now is the time for a Marriage Protection 527 to start making waves. Right while Monsieur Kerry is still reeling from the Swifties. You don't let a man regain his balance. He's starting to get traction in the MSM, well they gave him the platform to regain his composure.
BTW, what do you think Max Cleland gets for around the world?[shudder]

[Iberian]

Very possible, but I think he'll stick around because with limitless funds and a hatred for Bush, he will go the distance.

If these types stick, they will still smell a landslide. Sort of like when you feel a cold coming on, you just know it!! They'll know it.

Some will bail, but most of the leftists that stick will know that there are 4 years of shut up and work for a job vs: a cause.

[Qwinn2]

This poll -may- actually be accurate, because the typical liberal bias may actually be undecided in how to spin the number at the moment.

Naturally, they default to making Kerry's numbers look better, but just before the election, they'd be inclined to make Bush look better temporarily in order to minimize the appearance of any "post-convention bounce".

I think at this point we'll have less of a real idea what the numbers are than at any other time this year. The libs are now motivated to drive Bush's numbers both up -and- down. I'm expecting about 1/10 of them to spontaneously combust due to cognitive dissonance.

Qwinn

[justshutupandtakeit]

As much as I argue with you on other issues I agree completely with what you said. In fact, I was just thinking of asking your opinion on this Swift boat development not having seen you on other threads.

[RWR8189]

I'll send you the demographics for the poll that comes out tomorrow as soon as it becomes available. 

August 9-11			July 30-August 1			July 19-21
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	45	46	5	47	48	2	47	43	5
Gender
Men	44	47	3	45	51	2	48	43	3
Women	46	44	6	49	45	3	46	44	6
Race
Whites	39	53	3	41	54	3	41	49	5
Non-whites	68	17	11	70	24	2	70	24	3
Age
18-49	45	46	6	45	50	3	43	47	6
50-64	46	44	4	50	44	2	51	42	3
65+	44	47	2	48	47	2	54	37	2
Region
East	55	34	5	51	42	4	54	35	7
Midwest	43	48	2	49	45	3	47	44	4
South	40	54	4	41	55	2	41	49	3
West	43	43	9	50	46	1	49	43	3
Education
Post-graduate	50	44	4	53	44	1	53	41	4
College graduate	49	42	5	41	53	4	41	52	3
Some college	45	46	5	46	48	3	40	49	8
High school or less	42	47	5	47	47	2	54	35	3
Income
$75,000 or more	39	54	4	41	55	2	40	50	6
$50,000-$74,999	45	50	4	42	53	4	37	54	7
$30,000-$49,999	45	42	4	50	45	3	54	40	4
Less than $30,000	53	37	7	61	33	1	60	32	1
Ideology
Conservative	18	74	4	20	76	1	24	67	2
Moderate	56	33	5	56	38	2	56	34	7
Liberal	81	9	7	83	10	7	76	14	7
Partisanship
Republicans	6	89	2	5	92	1	9	84	4
Independents	44	37	10	46	41	7	50	30	9
Democrats	87	6	5	91	7	1	89	7	3

July 8-11			June 21-23			June 3-6
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	50	42	4	46	45	6	45	42	7
Gender
Men	45	46	5	42	49	7	42	46	7
Women	54	39	3	50	41	4	49	39	7
Race
Whites	44	48	4	41	50	5	41	47	7
Non-whites	72	21	4	68	23	6	61	25	7
Age
18-49	53	39	3	47	45	6	48	41	8
50-64	45	48	3	45	46	5	43	43	6
65+	49	41	1	48	43	4	44	44	6
Region
East	51	38	7	55	36	6	50	37	9
Midwest	54	39	4	47	45	5	44	47	6
South	44	48	3	42	48	5	42	46	7
West	53	41	3	45	47	6	47	40	7
Education
Post-graduate	52	36	6	50	42	6	53	36	5
College graduate	51	46	1	43	46	4	48	42	8
Some college	48	45	4	44	50	4	45	42	7
High school or less	51	39	5	49	40	7	42	45	8
Income
$75,000 or more	45	48	4	36	59	2	42	51	5
$50,000-$74,999	41	53	2	51	42	4	40	49	6
$30,000-$49,999	52	38	6	49	45	4	53	36	5
Less than $30,000	64	28	4	50	34	12	40	40	18
Ideology
Conservative	26	66	5	21	71	5	26	65	5
Moderate	58	31	4	56	36	5	50	35	10
Liberal	83	12	3	77	11	9	74	14	8
Partisanship
Republicans	11	85	1	7	90	2	8	86	3
Independents	47	34	10	43	40	12	45	33	15
Democrats	89	6	2	86	8	3	82	9	5

May 21-23			May 7-9
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	46	44	6	46	41	7
Gender
Men	42	48	6	44	44	7
Women	49	40	5	48	39	8
Race
Whites	39	51	6	41	47	7
Non-whites	70	19	5	68	19	9
Age
18-49	45	43	8	44	43	8
50-64	42	50	3	45	43	7
65+	51	38	3	50	37	4
Region
East	53	36	4	53	35	7
Midwest	45	43	8	50	39	6
South	45	45	4	43	45	7
West	40	50	7	38	47	10
Education
Post-graduate	56	37	4	54	37	6
College graduate	43	50	5	41	48	5
Some college	44	43	8	46	43	7
High school or less	45	44	4	45	39	9
Income
$75,000 or more	43	49	4	38	57	3
$50,000-$74,999	46	47	4	41	48	5
$30,000-$49,999	45	43	7	48	39	9
Less than $30,000	54	34	7	54	28	9
Ideology
Conservative	23	70	4	25	68	3
Moderate	59	30	6	51	36	8
Liberal	74	14	7	75	7	14
Partisanship
Republicans	7	90	2	7	90	3
Independents	48	33	12	44	31	15
Democrats	83	9	4	87	6	4

[guitar Josh]

The EC is slowly showing the change. Right now Kerry 274EV and Bush 255EV.

Where did you get these numbers?