Posted on 08/25/2004 7:14:55 PM PDT by RWR8189
Political Wire got an advance look at the new Los Angeles Times poll showing President Bush "moving slightly" ahead of Sen. John Kerry "for the first time this year." Bush had the support of 49% of registered voters, compared to 46% for Kerry.
The newspaper's analysis indicates Kerry "has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam."
The "small shift" from last month's poll "is within the poll's margin of error. But it fits with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty."
Independent voters split evenly, but Bush's "tentative new advantage" seems to be "his greater success at onsolidating his base. While just 3% of voters who call themselves Republicans say they will vote for Kerry, Bush is drawing 15% just over one-seventh of all Democrats, and fully one-fifth 20% of Democrats who consider themselves moderate or conservative, the poll found."
Kerry was up 2 points.
Please do not post full length LATimes.
The DUmmines are going into full vapor lock mode. They say it is time for the Dems to go negative on Bush. What can that possibly mean. Maybe they will have an ad with Bush photoshopped in a male orgy in the waiting room of an abortion clinic with a sign around his neck that says "I hate n*ggers". Because everything else has already been done to smear Bush.This could be the only way to elevate the crap they have already dished out on the man.
OKC muslim bomber/terrorists don't eat pork chops!
They are actually saying things like that over there.
Not even exaggerating.
That's was my first thought when I read that. Ashcroft is no dummy. I also read President Bush has a low profile SEC lookout going on?
I think your analysis is fairly accurate.
I would like to stipulate that while I'm suspicious of polls due to the agenda of the ones conducting the ones, I do lend credence to the bahavior of candidates.
Anyone that has paid attention the last few months to their reactions cannot miss G.W. is appearing far more self assured than he did earlier in the year during the sustained WMD/Abu Grabib hits. Meanwhile Kerry has slowly started to disintegrate, with the Swiftees speeding the process of his meltdown. It is entirely possible MSM may hype the numbers to diminish a bump but that alone would not explain Kerry's behavior, completely irrational unless he is sinking fast.
I've always felt G.W.'s strategy was to build to the election, rather than build a large lead and watch it disintegrate at end. For the most part he has stayed close and let the "leader" exhaust most of his strength.
I still think this election, barring the unknown, is going to break for one candidate or another rather than end up close. My cautious hope is G.W. is the recipient of vote approval.
"Look for Bush to come out and order Ashcroft to investigate links between ALL 527 organizations, and subpoena documentation from BOTH parties."
Oh that would be SWELL! Are you predicting (and based on what) or just wishing?
This is before a post convetion bounce.
RV
I bet it's worse with LV
Add not attending 78% of the Intelligence Committee hearings while a member including ALL those after 9/11. Very responsible and dependable.
Very possible, but I think he'll stick around because with limitless funds and a hatred for Bush, he will go the distance.
If these types stick, they will still smell a landslide. Sort of like when you feel a cold coming on, you just know it!! They'll know it.
Some will bail, but most of the leftists that stick will know that there are 4 years of shut up and work for a job vs: a cause.
This poll -may- actually be accurate, because the typical liberal bias may actually be undecided in how to spin the number at the moment.
Naturally, they default to making Kerry's numbers look better, but just before the election, they'd be inclined to make Bush look better temporarily in order to minimize the appearance of any "post-convention bounce".
I think at this point we'll have less of a real idea what the numbers are than at any other time this year. The libs are now motivated to drive Bush's numbers both up -and- down. I'm expecting about 1/10 of them to spontaneously combust due to cognitive dissonance.
Qwinn
As much as I argue with you on other issues I agree completely with what you said. In fact, I was just thinking of asking your opinion on this Swift boat development not having seen you on other threads.
August 9-11 |
July 30-August 1 |
July 19-21 |
|||||||
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Total |
45 |
46 |
5 |
47 |
48 |
2 |
47 |
43 |
5 |
Gender |
|||||||||
Men |
44 |
47 |
3 |
45 |
51 |
2 |
48 |
43 |
3 |
Women |
46 |
44 |
6 |
49 |
45 |
3 |
46 |
44 |
6 |
Race |
|||||||||
Whites |
39 |
53 |
3 |
41 |
54 |
3 |
41 |
49 |
5 |
Non-whites |
68 |
17 |
11 |
70 |
24 |
2 |
70 |
24 |
3 |
Age |
|||||||||
18-49 |
45 |
46 |
6 |
45 |
50 |
3 |
43 |
47 |
6 |
50-64 |
46 |
44 |
4 |
50 |
44 |
2 |
51 |
42 |
3 |
65+ |
44 |
47 |
2 |
48 |
47 |
2 |
54 |
37 |
2 |
Region |
|||||||||
East |
55 |
34 |
5 |
51 |
42 |
4 |
54 |
35 |
7 |
Midwest |
43 |
48 |
2 |
49 |
45 |
3 |
47 |
44 |
4 |
South |
40 |
54 |
4 |
41 |
55 |
2 |
41 |
49 |
3 |
West |
43 |
43 |
9 |
50 |
46 |
1 |
49 |
43 |
3 |
Education |
|||||||||
Post-graduate |
50 |
44 |
4 |
53 |
44 |
1 |
53 |
41 |
4 |
College graduate |
49 |
42 |
5 |
41 |
53 |
4 |
41 |
52 |
3 |
Some college |
45 |
46 |
5 |
46 |
48 |
3 |
40 |
49 |
8 |
High school or less |
42 |
47 |
5 |
47 |
47 |
2 |
54 |
35 |
3 |
Income |
|||||||||
$75,000 or more |
39 |
54 |
4 |
41 |
55 |
2 |
40 |
50 |
6 |
$50,000-$74,999 |
45 |
50 |
4 |
42 |
53 |
4 |
37 |
54 |
7 |
$30,000-$49,999 |
45 |
42 |
4 |
50 |
45 |
3 |
54 |
40 |
4 |
Less than $30,000 |
53 |
37 |
7 |
61 |
33 |
1 |
60 |
32 |
1 |
Ideology |
|||||||||
Conservative |
18 |
74 |
4 |
20 |
76 |
1 |
24 |
67 |
2 |
Moderate |
56 |
33 |
5 |
56 |
38 |
2 |
56 |
34 |
7 |
Liberal |
81 |
9 |
7 |
83 |
10 |
7 |
76 |
14 |
7 |
Partisanship |
|||||||||
Republicans |
6 |
89 |
2 |
5 |
92 |
1 |
9 |
84 |
4 |
Independents |
44 |
37 |
10 |
46 |
41 |
7 |
50 |
30 |
9 |
Democrats |
87 |
6 |
5 |
91 |
7 |
1 |
89 |
7 |
3 |
July 8-11 |
June 21-23 |
June 3-6 |
|||||||
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Total |
50 |
42 |
4 |
46 |
45 |
6 |
45 |
42 |
7 |
Gender |
|||||||||
Men |
45 |
46 |
5 |
42 |
49 |
7 |
42 |
46 |
7 |
Women |
54 |
39 |
3 |
50 |
41 |
4 |
49 |
39 |
7 |
Race |
|||||||||
Whites |
44 |
48 |
4 |
41 |
50 |
5 |
41 |
47 |
7 |
Non-whites |
72 |
21 |
4 |
68 |
23 |
6 |
61 |
25 |
7 |
Age |
|||||||||
18-49 |
53 |
39 |
3 |
47 |
45 |
6 |
48 |
41 |
8 |
50-64 |
45 |
48 |
3 |
45 |
46 |
5 |
43 |
43 |
6 |
65+ |
49 |
41 |
1 |
48 |
43 |
4 |
44 |
44 |
6 |
Region |
|||||||||
East |
51 |
38 |
7 |
55 |
36 |
6 |
50 |
37 |
9 |
Midwest |
54 |
39 |
4 |
47 |
45 |
5 |
44 |
47 |
6 |
South |
44 |
48 |
3 |
42 |
48 |
5 |
42 |
46 |
7 |
West |
53 |
41 |
3 |
45 |
47 |
6 |
47 |
40 |
7 |
Education |
|||||||||
Post-graduate |
52 |
36 |
6 |
50 |
42 |
6 |
53 |
36 |
5 |
College graduate |
51 |
46 |
1 |
43 |
46 |
4 |
48 |
42 |
8 |
Some college |
48 |
45 |
4 |
44 |
50 |
4 |
45 |
42 |
7 |
High school or less |
51 |
39 |
5 |
49 |
40 |
7 |
42 |
45 |
8 |
Income |
|||||||||
$75,000 or more |
45 |
48 |
4 |
36 |
59 |
2 |
42 |
51 |
5 |
$50,000-$74,999 |
41 |
53 |
2 |
51 |
42 |
4 |
40 |
49 |
6 |
$30,000-$49,999 |
52 |
38 |
6 |
49 |
45 |
4 |
53 |
36 |
5 |
Less than $30,000 |
64 |
28 |
4 |
50 |
34 |
12 |
40 |
40 |
18 |
Ideology |
|||||||||
Conservative |
26 |
66 |
5 |
21 |
71 |
5 |
26 |
65 |
5 |
Moderate |
58 |
31 |
4 |
56 |
36 |
5 |
50 |
35 |
10 |
Liberal |
83 |
12 |
3 |
77 |
11 |
9 |
74 |
14 |
8 |
Partisanship |
|||||||||
Republicans |
11 |
85 |
1 |
7 |
90 |
2 |
8 |
86 |
3 |
Independents |
47 |
34 |
10 |
43 |
40 |
12 |
45 |
33 |
15 |
Democrats |
89 |
6 |
2 |
86 |
8 |
3 |
82 |
9 |
5 |
May 21-23 |
May 7-9 |
|||||
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Total |
46 |
44 |
6 |
46 |
41 |
7 |
Gender |
||||||
Men |
42 |
48 |
6 |
44 |
44 |
7 |
Women |
49 |
40 |
5 |
48 |
39 |
8 |
Race |
||||||
Whites |
39 |
51 |
6 |
41 |
47 |
7 |
Non-whites |
70 |
19 |
5 |
68 |
19 |
9 |
Age |
||||||
18-49 |
45 |
43 |
8 |
44 |
43 |
8 |
50-64 |
42 |
50 |
3 |
45 |
43 |
7 |
65+ |
51 |
38 |
3 |
50 |
37 |
4 |
Region |
||||||
East |
53 |
36 |
4 |
53 |
35 |
7 |
Midwest |
45 |
43 |
8 |
50 |
39 |
6 |
South |
45 |
45 |
4 |
43 |
45 |
7 |
West |
40 |
50 |
7 |
38 |
47 |
10 |
Education |
||||||
Post-graduate |
56 |
37 |
4 |
54 |
37 |
6 |
College graduate |
43 |
50 |
5 |
41 |
48 |
5 |
Some college |
44 |
43 |
8 |
46 |
43 |
7 |
High school or less |
45 |
44 |
4 |
45 |
39 |
9 |
Income |
||||||
$75,000 or more |
43 |
49 |
4 |
38 |
57 |
3 |
$50,000-$74,999 |
46 |
47 |
4 |
41 |
48 |
5 |
$30,000-$49,999 |
45 |
43 |
7 |
48 |
39 |
9 |
Less than $30,000 |
54 |
34 |
7 |
54 |
28 |
9 |
Ideology |
||||||
Conservative |
23 |
70 |
4 |
25 |
68 |
3 |
Moderate |
59 |
30 |
6 |
51 |
36 |
8 |
Liberal |
74 |
14 |
7 |
75 |
7 |
14 |
Partisanship |
||||||
Republicans |
7 |
90 |
2 |
7 |
90 |
3 |
Independents |
48 |
33 |
12 |
44 |
31 |
15 |
Democrats |
83 |
9 |
4 |
87 |
6 |
4 |
Where did you get these numbers?
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