Posted on 08/25/2004 9:21:14 AM PDT by COURAGE
President Bush has pulled even with John Kerry in a new IBD/TIPP Poll amid charges the challenger may have oversold his four months of service in Vietnam.
In a three-way race, Bush and Kerry both would get 43% if the election were held today, according to the poll taken Aug. 17-23. Independent Ralph Nader would get 5%. In a two-way race, Bush and Kerry deadlock at 44%.
In the previous IBD/TIPP Poll, taken Aug. 2-5, shortly after the Democratic convention, Kerry led by three points in a three-way race and by six in head-to-head competition.
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"The recent controversy over Vietnam has perhaps cost Kerry some of his luster," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.
Kerry, who made his Vietnam service a focal point during the convention, has come under fire from veterans' groups for allegedly distorting his war record. Those charges seem to have taken a toll on Kerry's support.
The latest anti-Kerry ads also may have had some effect. They contrast his scathing criticism of U.S. soldiers in Vietnam in testimony before a Senate committee in 1971 and his current ardent pursuit of veterans' votes.
The race in swing states also continues to be close. In late July, Kerry had a four-point lead among "battleground" voters. In the latest poll, Bush leads by a point (44% to 43%), ending Kerry's modest advantage.
Bush also continued to whittle at Kerry's lead among independents. Before the Democratic convention in July, Kerry led Bush by 22 points (52% to 30%) among this group. That was cut to seven points (43% to 36%) after the convention, and Kerry has been unable to recoup the lost ground. The latest poll puts Kerry's advantage with independents at six points (41%-35%).
With fewer than 70 days left before the election, Bush's popularity remains more intense than Kerry's. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Bush supporters say they support him "strongly" compared with 56% of Kerry supporters.
"You have to keep this in mind while you read the trial-heat numbers," said Mayur. "Despite the fact that the race is currently tied, Bush may be in a stronger position due to his stronger intensity of support. A subpar intensity can hurt voter turnout."
The IBD/TIPP Poll shows that the candidate qualities that matter most to Americans in selecting their president are "honesty and trustworthiness" (23%), "strong leadership" (21%) and "good judgment in crisis" (17%).
About one in 10 are most concerned about having a president who "understands complex issues" or "cares about people like me" (12% and 11%, respectively). Perhaps surprisingly, experience and being likable are not very high on the list (6% and 2%).
Bush is preferred among those who attach high import to honesty and trustworthiness (50% for Bush vs. 29% for Kerry) and strong leadership (64% Bush vs. 27% Kerry).
Kerry is preferred 70%-18% among those who place high importance on understanding complex issues, and empathy — "cares about people like me" (76% Kerry and 17% Bush).
Among those who think "good judgment in crisis" to be important, both Bush and Kerry are preferred equally by 45%.
Related Resources: Continue your investing education at the IBD Learning Center. For a wealth of detailed investment insights and successful investor profiles, go to The Smart Investor.
Courage,
We can't assume anything, but perhaps you can chin up your attitude, because the Bush victory is on its way...
Bush is preferred among those who attach high import to honesty and trustworthiness (50% for Bush vs. 29% for Kerry) and strong leadership (64% Bush vs. 27% Kerry).
Kerry is preferred 70%-18% among those who place high importance on understanding complex issues, and empathy — "cares about people like me" (76% Kerry and 17% Bush).
Sums it up just about right.
Combine that with Rasmussen, who has had Bush at better than 50% approval for three months---and NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER LOST WITH THAT LEVEL OF APPROVAL---and the end is near for Francoise.
That, my FRiends, is the ticket. Right there. Bush voters are voting for Bush, for the most part, but Kerry voters can't stand Poodle Boy either, they're simply voting against W.
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Where can I get one of those?
"That, my FRiends, is the ticket. Right there. Bush voters are voting for Bush, for the most part, but Kerry voters can't stand Poodle Boy either, they're simply voting against W."
Yep. Those of us that plan on supporting the President will go thru rain, snow, sleet, high wind, hail, etc.
The Frenchurian Candidate's support isn't even close to that level. I suspect its going to be much like the Deaniacs failure to "show up" when the time came.
JF'nK should pick up his old guitar and pick and sing his new campaign song --
"I Washed My Hands In Muddy Water"
I don't have the guts (or money) to put one of these on my jeep. living in MA my car would be toast. But what I am seeing up here is the sticker in the upper right wht W04 oval. There are as many of them as Kerry stickers. They are much more subtle, and don't draw attention to themselves. I doubt most libs notice them.
THE FINAL MISSION: HOW THE SWIFT BOAT VETS SANKT HE KERRY CANDIDACT
This has been festering for two weeks..much of the country still hasn't heard it, and more stuff is yet to come..Kerry is completely off message, and he has yet to address it himself..because he can't...We've passed the tipping point..it's all downhill for Kerry..soon the major media will piule on..because the one thing that is more important than having their guy win , is the "get"..the story..and they';; worry that someone else will get it first..
I work in MA every day and I too must confess my cowardice about putting a stiker on my car. I'm glad you are seeing the W04 oval - all I see are Kerry bumper stickers. That coupled with Jay Severin's dire predictions that it is all but over for Bush can be quite depressing.
"Kerry is preferred 70%-18% among those who place high importance on understanding complex issues, and empathy — "cares about people like me" (76% Kerry and 17% Bush)."
Here is to the "I Feel Your Pain" crowd. Do you think the peace loving Islamic terrorists who flew into the WTC had empathy and cared about people like you?
You people make me want to blow lunch.
Those who would vote for Kerry because of "complex issues" have their own "complexes"...As for the rest of us, COMPLEX ISSUES don't mean a da$& thing if we've been blown up by terrorists!
This election is not going to be close.
Bush will gain a bounce (though small) from his convention. Something Kerry never did get. From there Bush will maintain and possibly grow a lead. The Debates Bush will stay on message and Kerry will still be searching for what his message is. When the Debate moderator asks Kerry, "Senator, once you are elected and the campaign is over you theortically have to stop running against George Bush and governing the country. You have yet to tell us how you would do this..." It's over for Kerry.
On election night don't be surprised if Bush has been declared the winner before we know the results in any of the prairie/mountain west states. Unlike 2000 this election could be over by 10 PM central time.
"Kerry is preferred 70%-18% among those who place high importance on understanding complex issues, and empathy — "cares about people like me" (76% Kerry and 17% Bush)."
This presumably represents the segment of the population that WANTS to be sold a big lie. What rational person could conclude mr. billionaire Kerry, of botox and hair-do fame, could possibly care about them at all?
The same people who paid millions to watch Michael Moore's crap.
What message is he off?
Oh, he does not want to really discuss the specific facts of his record in Viet Nam. I suppose that was his original message and so now he does not have one.
Also meant to say that the battleground states will not be split...OH, MO, MI, WI, PA, FL, WV, will all go to the same candidate.
As far as polls look for Zomby (Zogby) to influence the electorate through his polling. He'll show a trend toward Kerry and declare Kerry the winner in hoping to pick up bandwagon voters....
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