This election is not going to be close.
Bush will gain a bounce (though small) from his convention. Something Kerry never did get. From there Bush will maintain and possibly grow a lead. The Debates Bush will stay on message and Kerry will still be searching for what his message is. When the Debate moderator asks Kerry, "Senator, once you are elected and the campaign is over you theortically have to stop running against George Bush and governing the country. You have yet to tell us how you would do this..." It's over for Kerry.
On election night don't be surprised if Bush has been declared the winner before we know the results in any of the prairie/mountain west states. Unlike 2000 this election could be over by 10 PM central time.
Also meant to say that the battleground states will not be split...OH, MO, MI, WI, PA, FL, WV, will all go to the same candidate.
As far as polls look for Zomby (Zogby) to influence the electorate through his polling. He'll show a trend toward Kerry and declare Kerry the winner in hoping to pick up bandwagon voters....