Posted on 08/23/2004 4:46:46 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 97.0 | 9 | 0 |
Alaska | 95.5 | 3 | 0 |
Arizona | 71.1 | 10 | 0 |
Arkansas | 61.0 | 6 | 0 |
California | 9.0 | 0 | 55 |
Colorado | 74.0 | 9 | 0 |
Connecticut | 5.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delaware | 15.0 | 0 | 3 |
District of Columbia | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 50.8 | 27 | 0 |
Georgia | 96.0 | 15 | 0 |
Hawaii | 7.0 | 0 | 4 |
Idaho | 95.5 | 4 | 0 |
Illinois | 9.0 | 0 | 21 |
Indiana | 95.0 | 11 | 0 |
Iowa | 40.3 | 0 | 7 |
Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kentucky | 93.5 | 8 | 0 |
Louisiana | 91.0 | 9 | 0 |
Maine | 25.1 | 0 | 4 |
Maryland | 13.0 | 0 | 10 |
Massachusetts | 3.0 | 0 | 12 |
Michigan | 28.0 | 0 | 17 |
Minnesota | 30.8 | 0 | 10 |
Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
Missouri | 55.5 | 11 | 0 |
Montana | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Nevada | 58.0 | 5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 40.0 | 0 | 4 |
New Jersey | 15.7 | 0 | 15 |
New Mexico | 32.0 | 0 | 5 |
New York | 7.0 | 0 | 31 |
North Carolina | 75.5 | 15 | 0 |
North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio | 55.5 | 20 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
Oregon | 33.0 | 0 | 7 |
Pennsylvania | 30.9 | 0 | 21 |
Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
South Carolina | 97.0 | 8 | 0 |
South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Tennessee | 72.0 | 11 | 0 |
Texas | 97.0 | 34 | 0 |
Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Vermont | 5.0 | 0 | 3 |
Virginia | 79.0 | 13 | 0 |
Washington | 22.1 | 0 | 11 |
West Virginia | 50.1 | 5 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 45.0 | 0 | 10 |
Wyoming | 97.0 | 3 | 0 |
Totals | 274 | 264 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 274 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 264 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 264.27 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
WV flips to sKerry (from 50.1% Bush) and they predict a tie. 269-269. I don't think it is this close though.
Seems to depend on Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. If W holds them, he wins.
I hope not. Don't want to have to go through 2000 again.
They've got W winning if he holds FLA, MO, and WV. They've got him losing IA, MN, NH, NM, OR, PA, and WI and still winning the election. Looks good if he can really win FLA.
W needs OH too.
This model doesn't take into effect the outcome if Colorado's Electoral votes are split.
Anybody from Colorado know what the odds of this EV split passing on the Nov ballot?
It may get a bit worse in the short-term. However, after our convention and the 9/11 anniversary, I think we will start to see a move towards W in the electoral college.
I think a lot of people will be surprised at the resulys in IA, MN, and WI . . . at least 2 of the 3 will go Republican. You heard it here first.
:-)
I would say low. Understand that the state is split by 3rds - 1/3 GOP, 1/3 Independant, 1/3 Rat. About 2/3rds of the Independants are actually conservative. That would mean about 5/9ths do not like the idea of porportional votes.
Then weighted probabilities would predict a Bush loss, but the traders predict a Bush win? Why the discrepancy?
It is true that Iowa and Wisconsin are close right now. At least according to some polls.
Even if that passed, it could NOT take effect in that election could it?
Why is everyone gleefully predicting a big bounce from the convention and 9/11? Do we not know that the media controls how these things are seen by the public? The media is more DNC-friendly than ever before, and they have rationalized it by
saying they have to counter FOX. So there will be no bounce.
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