Posted on 08/23/2004 4:46:46 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
From everything I've read, it would take effect immediately and divide the ECV for this election.
I agree, and I don't think we need a "bounce." I think there is serious steady erosion of Kerry's support, esp. in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Florida. There are articles out there to this extent: that quietly the Dem strategists are very concerned. They should be. Polls show Bush is already viewed as a good "national security" leader. All he has to do to win is show that Kerry is not. The swifties are doing that for him.
True. But the key is the internal polls of the Bush campaign, which ARE more accurate than any we see on TV. They are taken locally, state by state, in a very scientific manner. So, to guage how the campaign is going, watch where Bush goes . . . and where he does not go.
Seeing that your weighting method gives Bush less votes, its apparent that he will loose Kerry states by a wider margin than he will win his own. I don't think you can weight the way you did and get any accurate projection. There should be a state by state prediction.
I agree. I think MN for one is a lot closer than these numbers predict. I see no Kerry bumper stickers or signs and plenty of Bush ones. And then there's the Randy Kelly factor. The democrats are showing their true selves by trying to recall him and people are noticing. The Bush campaign has great organization out here. In 2000, they didnt have their own HQ. Now they have had an HQ for awhile now as large as my house with a full time staff and volunteers working every day to get the message out and ID people. The Bush campaign is a lot more organized this time around in the Midwest.
How about PA for Bush? Oregon or Wash? MI? And what if the North and Valley down to San Diego push CA for Bush, as well? Could be a blow-out.
What scares me is all the snowbirds in Florida. Brit was reporting today that apparently there is documentation that thousands are registered to vote in both NY and FL, and at least 1000 did vote in both states in 2000, a federal offense.
I think Bush can take Cali.
I think LA is a made-up vote. But the GOP in CA NEVER! challenges the vote. I'm guessing they've got all sorts of schemes, themselves, that just aren't as competent as the statewide Dem machine. It's cynical. But it seems a fair suspicion.
But get a map of central CA. Follow 5 and look east. There's all kind of development, up and down through the valley. People have fled the Asian-priced coast, up north, and I suppose the crime and dilapidation of SoCal, to 4H country. And it could be enough from North to the southern border to overwhelm the LA county vote (which is the largest block) and that of the coastal Bay Area counties.
I have another friend in MN who says the same thing.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
| 07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
| 07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
| 07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
| 08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
| 08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
| 08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
| 08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
Thanks jdege!
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