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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, August 23, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 08/23/2004 4:46:46 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 97.0 9 0
Alaska 95.5 3 0
Arizona 71.1 10 0
Arkansas 61.0 6 0
California 9.0 0 55
Colorado 74.0 9 0
Connecticut 5.0 0 7
Delaware 15.0 0 3
District of Columbia 1.0 0 3
Florida 50.8 27 0
Georgia 96.0 15 0
Hawaii 7.0 0 4
Idaho 95.5 4 0
Illinois 9.0 0 21
Indiana 95.0 11 0
Iowa 40.3 0 7
Kansas 94.0 6 0
Kentucky 93.5 8 0
Louisiana 91.0 9 0
Maine 25.1 0 4
Maryland 13.0 0 10
Massachusetts 3.0 0 12
Michigan 28.0 0 17
Minnesota 30.8 0 10
Mississippi 96.0 6 0
Missouri 55.5 11 0
Montana 95.0 3 0
Nebraska 96.0 5 0
Nevada 58.0 5 0
New Hampshire 40.0 0 4
New Jersey 15.7 0 15
New Mexico 32.0 0 5
New York 7.0 0 31
North Carolina 75.5 15 0
North Dakota 96.0 3 0
Ohio 55.5 20 0
Oklahoma 97.0 7 0
Oregon 33.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 30.9 0 21
Rhode Island 4.0 0 4
South Carolina 97.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 72.0 11 0
Texas 97.0 34 0
Utah 96.0 5 0
Vermont 5.0 0 3
Virginia 79.0 13 0
Washington 22.1 0 11
West Virginia 50.1 5 0
Wisconsin 45.0 0 10
Wyoming 97.0 3 0
Totals   274 264


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 274 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 264 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 264.27 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 08/23/2004 4:46:48 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 08/23/2004 4:47:00 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

3 posted on 08/23/2004 4:47:19 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

4 posted on 08/23/2004 4:47:37 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Optimist; BlessedByLiberty; upchuck; Remember_Salamis; Aeronaut; codercpc; Gritty; Krodg; fooman; ..
If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.
5 posted on 08/23/2004 4:48:06 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

WV flips to sKerry (from 50.1% Bush) and they predict a tie. 269-269. I don't think it is this close though.


6 posted on 08/23/2004 4:49:14 PM PDT by RobFromGa (Kerry/Edwards: Hating America One Vote at a Time)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Seems to depend on Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. If W holds them, he wins.


7 posted on 08/23/2004 4:50:38 PM PDT by p. henry
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To: RobFromGa
I don't think it is this close though.

I hope not. Don't want to have to go through 2000 again.

8 posted on 08/23/2004 4:52:32 PM PDT by scan59
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To: Momaw Nadon

They've got W winning if he holds FLA, MO, and WV. They've got him losing IA, MN, NH, NM, OR, PA, and WI and still winning the election. Looks good if he can really win FLA.


9 posted on 08/23/2004 4:54:44 PM PDT by Neanderthal
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To: Neanderthal

W needs OH too.


10 posted on 08/23/2004 4:56:16 PM PDT by Neanderthal
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To: Momaw Nadon

This model doesn't take into effect the outcome if Colorado's Electoral votes are split.

Anybody from Colorado know what the odds of this EV split passing on the Nov ballot?


11 posted on 08/23/2004 4:57:12 PM PDT by dawn53
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To: Momaw Nadon

It may get a bit worse in the short-term. However, after our convention and the 9/11 anniversary, I think we will start to see a move towards W in the electoral college.


12 posted on 08/23/2004 4:58:56 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: Neanderthal

I think a lot of people will be surprised at the resulys in IA, MN, and WI . . . at least 2 of the 3 will go Republican. You heard it here first.

:-)


13 posted on 08/23/2004 5:02:13 PM PDT by MrChips (ARD)
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To: dawn53
I'm not from Colorado, but if I'm not mistaken both parties are campaigning against that brain-dead initiative. It shouldn't be hard to defeat with just a little bit of education.
14 posted on 08/23/2004 5:16:30 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: dawn53

I would say low. Understand that the state is split by 3rds - 1/3 GOP, 1/3 Independant, 1/3 Rat. About 2/3rds of the Independants are actually conservative. That would mean about 5/9ths do not like the idea of porportional votes.


15 posted on 08/23/2004 5:29:11 PM PDT by taxcontrol (People are entitled to their opinion - no matter how wrong it is.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Thanks for posting this frequently and for the ping.


16 posted on 08/23/2004 5:31:38 PM PDT by upchuck (Well, if I called the wrong number, why did you answer the phone?)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Then weighted probabilities would predict a Bush loss, but the traders predict a Bush win? Why the discrepancy?


17 posted on 08/23/2004 5:43:19 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: MrChips

It is true that Iowa and Wisconsin are close right now. At least according to some polls.


18 posted on 08/23/2004 5:45:02 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: dawn53

Even if that passed, it could NOT take effect in that election could it?


19 posted on 08/23/2004 5:47:46 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Why is everyone gleefully predicting a big bounce from the convention and 9/11? Do we not know that the media controls how these things are seen by the public? The media is more DNC-friendly than ever before, and they have rationalized it by
saying they have to counter FOX. So there will be no bounce.


20 posted on 08/23/2004 5:48:01 PM PDT by Vinomori
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