Get ready for them to try to spin the Bush ,military records, even though Kerry hides his in shame.
But......
Posted on 08/23/2004 11:34:29 AM PDT by Mr. Bill E
Economic Models Predict Bush Election Win
3 minutes ago Add Politics to My Yahoo!
By Alan Elsner
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite an embarrassing failure in their forecasting four years ago, political scientists and economists are again predicting the outcome of the presidential election, and most foresee a win for President Bush (news - web sites).
"If this election follows historical patterns, it looks very likely that Bush is going to win," said Ray Fair, a Yale University economist whose model is built mainly around gross domestic product growth and predicts that Bush will take 58.5 percent of the vote.
Current polls show a very close race with many suggesting that Democratic nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) may be slightly ahead.
There is a wide variety of election models available. Each takes different combinations of factors to calculate a prediction for the Nov. 2 vote but all rely heavily on economic data -- usually growth, inflation, unemployment, wage growth or a combination of these factors.
Chris Wlezien, a political scientist based at Nuffield College at the University of Oxford in Britain, is predicting Bush will win 52.5 percent of the vote in a model that combines income growth with presidential approval ratings.
Four years ago, Wlezien forecast that then-Vice President Al Gore (news - web sites) would win with 54.5 percent of the vote. In fact, he took 50.5 percent and lost the state-by-state Electoral College (news - web sites) vote after the Supreme Court settled a bitter dispute over the outcome of the vote in Florida.
"Of course, forecasting tomorrow's weather is a lot easier than forecasting what it will be on Christmas Day," Wlezien said. "It's 60-40 the numbers will move in Bush's direction between now and Election Day but nothing is certain."
'TOO CLOSE TO CALL'
Michael Lewis-Beck at the University of Iowa, is predicting that Bush will win 51 percent of the vote, which makes the election too close to call. After predicting an easy victory for Gore in 2000, Lewis-Beck has changed his model to take account of jobs growth over the four-year presidential term. Under Bush, there has been a 1.1 million net job loss.
"Bush has the worst jobs record of any incumbent since the Second World War and that is hurting him," Lewis-Beck said.
History suggests that when economic growth exceeds 2.6 percent, an incumbent president or another candidate of his party will win. Gross domestic product climbed at annual rates of 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2004 and 3 percent in the second.
Only three 20th century incumbents lost -- Herbert Hoover in 1932, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Bush's father in 1992. In all three elections, the economy was either in recession, or in Hoover's case, depression.
The big unknown in this election is the effect of the war in Iraq (news - web sites), which most models struggle to capture.
"Our equation says the economy ought to be good enough for Bush to win the election," said Nigel Gault of Global Insights, a consultancy based in Lexington, Massachusetts. "If the election turns out to be not entirely or not mainly about the economy, Bush might be vulnerable," he said.
Another criticism arising from 2000 is that most models do not measure the state-by-state votes that actually decide the election. One that does is compiled by Economy.com, an online provider of economic and financial research based in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Their model looks at national consumer price data and state unemployment data.
"We're showing Bush with 53.7 percent of the vote but over the past couple of months our forecast has come down. We seem to be moving toward a tighter election," said senior economist Robert Dye.
He added: "The caveats are legion. We do not consider any type of voter preference on foreign policy and we are not accounting for noneconomic issues. To the extent they are more important, they could make a difference."
Is this true? Gore got over 50% in a three person race and lost?! I thought both Gore and Bush were around 48%.
Is this true? Gore got over 50% in a three person race and lost?! I thought both Gore and Bush were around 48%.
Interesting article. But the economy was not in recession in 1992 -when Bush the elder got tossed out. Democrat media machine is a force to reckon...Unemployment rate 4% in FL yet Kerry decrying "weak FL economy." They have no shame and all the power...Well, most of it.
How many polls in 2000 predicted the outcome of Bush winning as closely as he did? But does Reuters start off each story with a similiar line? No.
To me, it sounds like Reuters trying to discredit an outcome they don't like.
Bush will take 58.5 percent of the vote.
This means Kerry gets less than 40 per cent, when accounting for the "other" category. I'll take it!
Dear KJacob,
In 2000, Mr. Gore received 48.38% of the popular vote, to Mr. Bush's 47.87%.
Here's a link: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0876793.html
sitetest
But......
Sounds good to me.
Rumor also has it the Vets are planning an October surprise. That sounds good, too.
Your memory is correct. The 50.5% is about the percentage of votes excluding Nader. This particular piece of data was not presented correctly.
Facts are wrong, Gore got in the 48ish range.. he did not cross the 50% range in 2000... more media propoganda. There has not been a president to truly win the Majority of the electorate since 1988 when Bush Sr. won the white house.
http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/
Presidential Candidate Vice Presidential Candidate Political Party Popular Vote Electoral Vote
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 50,460,110 47.87% 271 50.37%
Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic 51,003,926 48.38% 266 49.44%
Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke Green 2,883,105 2.73% 0 0.00%
Patrick Buchanan Ezola Foster Reform 449,225 0.43% 0 0.00%
Harry Browne Art Olivier Libertarian 384,516 0.36% 0 0.00%
Other (+) - - 236,376 0.22% 1 0.19%
The article was either badly written or edited to leave out the key words. Gore got just over 50% of the two party vote (that is, votes for either him or W, with Nader excluded).
The model predicts the percentage of the two-party vote, not the overall percentage with all parties included. So you're right that Gore got in the 48% range of all votes, the guy doing the forecast is right that Gore got 50.2% of the two-party vote (to Bush's 49.8%).
How does this model work in an open election? Was Gore treated like an incumbent?
YEP - and he took a majority of the actual votes in 30 states.
More tellingly, no Democrat has won over 50.1% of the popular vote since Roosevelt in 1944 except for Johnson in 1964 (Truman, Kennedy, and Clinton never broke 49.75%, and Carter alone got 50.08%). On the other hand, Republicans have won outright majorities in 1952, 1956, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988. Those elections include every victorious reelection of a Republican incumbent. Bush I in 1992 is the only anomaly, and only because of the presence of Perot.
The odds from history are very good that Bush will win.
"The odds from history are very good that Bush will win."
If economic growth stays above 3% for the third quarter... I think Bush wins.
I think its inexplicable however that the Administration is not tapping the strategic reserve to counter the "insurgency effect" on oil prices. If Bush allows the terrorists to manipulate this election he may lose. It's unfortunate but just a fact.
If even if you were only looking at the vote between the two of them, he only took 50.28 %. This guy's got his numbers jumbled.
Yes, but in October, Kerry will stun the nation, and tell everyine that he is a Vietnam veteran and served, being awared the Silver Star and three Purple Hearts for wounds received in action. Until now, he has not told anyone about this part of his life. He is saving it for the vet vote.
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