More tellingly, no Democrat has won over 50.1% of the popular vote since Roosevelt in 1944 except for Johnson in 1964 (Truman, Kennedy, and Clinton never broke 49.75%, and Carter alone got 50.08%). On the other hand, Republicans have won outright majorities in 1952, 1956, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988. Those elections include every victorious reelection of a Republican incumbent. Bush I in 1992 is the only anomaly, and only because of the presence of Perot.
The odds from history are very good that Bush will win.
"The odds from history are very good that Bush will win."
If economic growth stays above 3% for the third quarter... I think Bush wins.
I think its inexplicable however that the Administration is not tapping the strategic reserve to counter the "insurgency effect" on oil prices. If Bush allows the terrorists to manipulate this election he may lose. It's unfortunate but just a fact.