Vanity Post: Is it time to panic?

Election Projection 2004 ^

[RedStateWarrior]

I'm a hard numbers kind of guy. I follow the state polls every evening after I get home from work, and there's a disturbing trend developing right now: most projections give Kerry a pretty good position in the electoral college.

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Here are a few sites of electoral projections:

http://www.electoral-vote.com

http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

http://www.federalreview.com/

http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

http://www.race2004.net/

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There are a handful of states that I'm really concerned about. Bush should NOT be worrying about these states!!! Bush should be waltzing through these and focusing on Ohio and Florida!

Nevada: Rasmussen's latest poll gives Bush a 1% lead. What's less-often reported is how many California liberals are relocating to Nevada to work and even sometimes vote there.

Colorado: Survey USA has both candidates tied at 47%. Could this be affected by reverse coattails?

Missouri: I'd always thought that MO was getting more conservative, but the latest Zogby has Bush down by 1%. I know, I know.. Zogby (yuck!), but I've seen other polls with this race close.

Tennesse: Again, how? Bush leads 48-46 in the latest Survey USA poll. That Frenchie is doing better than the Gorebot did in 2000!

Virginia: Bush holds a 3% lead here. I have faith in this state. My brother lives there outside of DC, and he says "no way" to it going Kerry. They're trying to appeal to vets, but with no good results. Still, 3% is a bit close for my comfort.

North Carolina: Sure, the Breck Girl is on the ticket, but this state was a landslide for Bush in 2000. Now it's statistically tied.

Then there are the swing states..

Ohio: I really began to worry when I saw today's Gallup numbers. Kerry has a 10% lead among registered voters, and 2% among likelies. Bush can't afford to lose this one.

Florida: the latest 3 polls have Bush trailing by an average of 6%. That's scary. I can't see us winning without Florida, unless we pull a hat trick and take Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin in return.

New Hampshire: Yeah, don't laugh.. 4EVs. But the election might be that close, and it looks like Kerry has a consistent 4 or 5% lead here.

What also bothers me is that undecideds almost always break by about 60 to 70% with the challenger. I see Bush on TV all the time, making his case (he's gotten quite good at it lately), but those damn TV goons always seem to twist things around on him. {And you know that the media are gonna have a field day with the 1000th GI death. Sickos.} I know that our convention is coming soon, and that we should get some bounce from it, but am I being a worrywart?

[thoughtomator]

talk about zot bait... go home troll

[Darkwolf377]

Is it time to panic?

If I were you? Definitely.

For the rest of us? Only if you re-up tomorrow under a new name. :)

[JRandomFreeper]

Shouldn't that be FLASH TRAFFIC?

/john

[Poohbah]

I think the FL2 is for FLASH/YANKEE precedence.

[big'ol_freeper]

Ack!! Ack-Ack!!

[buccaneer81]

and focusing on Ohio

I live in Ohio. Bush wins here by at least five points. Trust me.

[Viet-Boat-Rider]

[The Wizard]

me too, before the zot

[SheLion]

Hi There! Welcome to Free Republic.

I never vote in the online polls and neither does my friends and family. So how can they be accurate?

[Texas Eagle]

ooooooooh.....now THAT'S pritty.

[A CA Guy]

You have to put polls into the light of their bias.

Take Bush's numbers and add between 8-15 points and you have the real numbers.

[Izzy Dunne]

Kerry did not get his bounce from the convention.

DNC is in talks with Playtex about a new athletic-bra commercial:
Two boobs.
Running.
No bounce.

[SheLion]

Why do I smell a zot?

~cough ~cough

[Publius6961]

I'm a hard numbers kind of guy.

No, you're a moron. And not half as clever as you think

Polls Don't Win Elections; Votes Do!

[SheLion]

[SheLion]

Mark, if your serious about being here in Free Republic, then just relax and have faith. There is SO much you need to learn.

Hang out here and learn from the MASTERS! I sure do! :)

[RedStateWarrior]

Thanks. I just need to calm down.

And for those fans of The Zot.. where can I get some of those cool kitten-with-a-gun pics? I want some wallpaper.. hehe..

[!1776!]

I'm a hard numbers kind of guy. I follow the state polls every evening after I get home from work, and there's a disturbing trend developing right now: most projections give Kerry a pretty good position in the electoral college.

I like hard numbers also, but have a few questions on how those numbers are developed...

Had a call approximately 2 weeks ago asking if I would take a poll.

My answer was yes.

Was asked if I was registered with a party.

I answered yes. Republican

Was asked if I would be voting in the presidential election.

I answered yes.

Was told the caller had a computer glitch. It was strange, stupid computers. Was told she would have to contact her supervisor and reset her computer. Asked if I would be available to finish the survey in 15-30 minutes.

I answered yes.

I was never called back.

Could have been a fluke (I have that affect on computers), but what are the odds?

I'm certainly not saying the fix is in, but there certainly is something to people wanting to be on the winning side, everyone is doing it, etc...

[Howlin]

You joined today to panic?

[Indy Pendance]

If they call again, tell them you're a dem and see what happens. Like that will happen.