Posted on 08/18/2004 3:44:26 PM PDT by RedStateWarrior
I'm a hard numbers kind of guy. I follow the state polls every evening after I get home from work, and there's a disturbing trend developing right now: most projections give Kerry a pretty good position in the electoral college.
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Here are a few sites of electoral projections:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
http://www.federalreview.com/
http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
http://www.race2004.net/
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There are a handful of states that I'm really concerned about. Bush should NOT be worrying about these states!!! Bush should be waltzing through these and focusing on Ohio and Florida!
Nevada: Rasmussen's latest poll gives Bush a 1% lead. What's less-often reported is how many California liberals are relocating to Nevada to work and even sometimes vote there.
Colorado: Survey USA has both candidates tied at 47%. Could this be affected by reverse coattails?
Missouri: I'd always thought that MO was getting more conservative, but the latest Zogby has Bush down by 1%. I know, I know.. Zogby (yuck!), but I've seen other polls with this race close.
Tennesse: Again, how? Bush leads 48-46 in the latest Survey USA poll. That Frenchie is doing better than the Gorebot did in 2000!
Virginia: Bush holds a 3% lead here. I have faith in this state. My brother lives there outside of DC, and he says "no way" to it going Kerry. They're trying to appeal to vets, but with no good results. Still, 3% is a bit close for my comfort.
North Carolina: Sure, the Breck Girl is on the ticket, but this state was a landslide for Bush in 2000. Now it's statistically tied.
Then there are the swing states..
Ohio: I really began to worry when I saw today's Gallup numbers. Kerry has a 10% lead among registered voters, and 2% among likelies. Bush can't afford to lose this one.
Florida: the latest 3 polls have Bush trailing by an average of 6%. That's scary. I can't see us winning without Florida, unless we pull a hat trick and take Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin in return.
New Hampshire: Yeah, don't laugh.. 4EVs. But the election might be that close, and it looks like Kerry has a consistent 4 or 5% lead here.
What also bothers me is that undecideds almost always break by about 60 to 70% with the challenger. I see Bush on TV all the time, making his case (he's gotten quite good at it lately), but those damn TV goons always seem to twist things around on him. {And you know that the media are gonna have a field day with the 1000th GI death. Sickos.} I know that our convention is coming soon, and that we should get some bounce from it, but am I being a worrywart?
Yes, let's panic. Oh wait, maybe we should postpone the panic until after the first debate when America actually starts paying attention.
Oh well, time for lunch
Nope - just a directionally challenged Packers fan from Iowa...
Ah, Iowa, I lived there once. Cedar Rapids. Hated it.
The city of five smells...
Don't really blame you, but we do have better to offer.
I'm sure you do. I have bad memories because my ex-husband found his 'true love' there. That was a lifetime ago.
Welcome to FR, troll!
I'm hoping that he lies during a debate and that we get to nail him on it.
Everything that comes out of Kerry's mouth is a lie. No need to wait until a debate for him to lie; he's probably lying as I type this post.
You'll feel a lot better.
I live in Ohio. Bush wins here by at least five points. Trust me.
I live in Ohio too. 5-8 point win for Bush.
please...
That was a good one. I could hear the horn and see the whoopee light flashing as I read it.
Remember what the General said in "We Were Soldiers:" "We're gonna win this battle." Dig in pal. Talk to people. Convert them. Fight back. It ain't over by a long shot. BRASS.
Looking for Bush to take it by 4-6%. Possibly more.
Kerry's past is permeating around America. Just do a Web Google under: Kerry and Cambodia.
Newsflash!
Nobody watches networks any more.
Like my sig line?
Get lost.
Get out and vote
The ONLY poll that counts is the one in November. Don't bother yourself reading the others. Be they good or bad they don't mean squat.
LOL!
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