Posted on 08/18/2004 3:44:26 PM PDT by RedStateWarrior
I'm a hard numbers kind of guy. I follow the state polls every evening after I get home from work, and there's a disturbing trend developing right now: most projections give Kerry a pretty good position in the electoral college.
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Here are a few sites of electoral projections:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
http://www.federalreview.com/
http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
http://www.race2004.net/
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There are a handful of states that I'm really concerned about. Bush should NOT be worrying about these states!!! Bush should be waltzing through these and focusing on Ohio and Florida!
Nevada: Rasmussen's latest poll gives Bush a 1% lead. What's less-often reported is how many California liberals are relocating to Nevada to work and even sometimes vote there.
Colorado: Survey USA has both candidates tied at 47%. Could this be affected by reverse coattails?
Missouri: I'd always thought that MO was getting more conservative, but the latest Zogby has Bush down by 1%. I know, I know.. Zogby (yuck!), but I've seen other polls with this race close.
Tennesse: Again, how? Bush leads 48-46 in the latest Survey USA poll. That Frenchie is doing better than the Gorebot did in 2000!
Virginia: Bush holds a 3% lead here. I have faith in this state. My brother lives there outside of DC, and he says "no way" to it going Kerry. They're trying to appeal to vets, but with no good results. Still, 3% is a bit close for my comfort.
North Carolina: Sure, the Breck Girl is on the ticket, but this state was a landslide for Bush in 2000. Now it's statistically tied.
Then there are the swing states..
Ohio: I really began to worry when I saw today's Gallup numbers. Kerry has a 10% lead among registered voters, and 2% among likelies. Bush can't afford to lose this one.
Florida: the latest 3 polls have Bush trailing by an average of 6%. That's scary. I can't see us winning without Florida, unless we pull a hat trick and take Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin in return.
New Hampshire: Yeah, don't laugh.. 4EVs. But the election might be that close, and it looks like Kerry has a consistent 4 or 5% lead here.
What also bothers me is that undecideds almost always break by about 60 to 70% with the challenger. I see Bush on TV all the time, making his case (he's gotten quite good at it lately), but those damn TV goons always seem to twist things around on him. {And you know that the media are gonna have a field day with the 1000th GI death. Sickos.} I know that our convention is coming soon, and that we should get some bounce from it, but am I being a worrywart?
Geez, we have not even had the GOP convention yet. After that, the polls will be more accurate.
The sky is falling!
Why do I smell a zot?
Have a Soma and relax.
Yes, yes it is. What was the post about?
No panic here whatsoever.
-- Joe
10, 9, 8, 7, 6, . . .
Kerry might now even win his home state. Noone's going to vote for him. Everybody knows he'd get us all killed.
That's what I'm hoping for. Will the networks even try to resemble fair coverage though?
No, it is not time to panic.
The only poll that counts is the one held on Election Day.
Welcome to Free Republic
Hey newbie......Did you sign up today just to fearmonger?
In before the ZOT!!
RedStateWarrior Since Aug 18, 2004
What is today's ZOT level?????
That guys info page is pretty funny.
Always remember::: THE MEDIA CONTROL THE POLLS. So cool it.
You do realize you're going to get flamed big time, right? Far as I can tell, this is your first posting at FR... and it's a ho-hum doom 'n gloom posting. On top of that, your "profile" makes you sound a little shady. Odds are, you're a DU troll looking to stir things up.
But welcome to FR. :-)
No, but I am afraif of Kerry putting-up Ginsburg clones who read off of european law rather than our own..
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