Posted on 08/18/2004 7:39:19 AM PDT by POA2
New SUSA poll shows CO a dead heat - 47-47 - (this is not good - another 2000 GWB State that is heading toward the toss-up catagory) -
Also new poll out of NV shows GWB up 49-46 -
And 2 other polls out of MI and PA that both show Kerry up by 4pts or more -
MI poll is 46-42 for Kerry (Strategic Vision)
PA poll shows Kerry 47-42 (Quinn) - PA has to now be considered solid Kerry - He has lead in the past 11 straight polls and in 20 of the past 22 polls out of PA -
This is getting late - GWB has to make a move now - an incumbent will not surge late and win - (past Sept 15th)
All these polls can be found on realclearpolitics site .
Don't sweat it. The Convention is coming up. Kerry is self-destructing slowly. The debates should finish Kerry.
Who says?
The whels are falling off Kerry's campaign. ALL this just as people are making up their minds. Kerry is toast.
I have been stupified by all the positiveness of many FReepers, insisting polls showing Bush trailing were proof of a Bush landslide. However, it's also silly to worry about how late it is getting. Labor Day is when people start paying attention. Wait for the PubbieCon in NYC. If he's behind after that, than start worrying.
Bring on the GOP convention and more swiftie ads. That reminds me to donate another $100 today for SBV's.
No sign of big mo showing up for Bush. No sign of Kerry's whells falling off. And it is getting late enough that any good news will be treated as an October Surprise. I remember all too well how the positive economic reports in 1992 were treated as desperate lies from the Bush campaign by the media. And there certainly was no correction when the reports were shown to have severely, drastically, even profoundly underreported the economic growth which was unequalled by the Clinton years until 1997.
SO FAR, Bush has done not a single blessed thing he needs to do to win, but it is still VERY early. The time for fortuitous circumstances may be ending, but the time for a smart campaign is just beginning.
Oh please.
Gore got a last minute surge in 2000 because he, the RATS and the media smeared W with the DWI nonsense. It cost Bush NM, OR, WI and a clear lead in FL.
I will be nearly suicidal if Kerry wins. I could have lived with gephardt, not kerry. I'm sweating it and working to elect bush. I suggest everyone else do the same.
Don't understand this reasoning - Polls have continually showed GWB ahead in CO - now Kerry has pushed up to a tie and you say things are going GWB way?? -
The DOW, Gas prices, (Greenspans) silly interest rate hikes are all issues not going GWB way. - Not to mention the media's biased coverage over the last jobs report (only highlighting the payroll and not the Household suvey) -
Where did we see the most Bush signs? Oregon.
We even saw one billboard just south of Seattle that read:
"John F. Kerry: A man who thinks twice before saying nothing."
These state polls likely represent JFnK's high-water mark coming after the RAT convention but before the GOP convention. As long as W gets a decent bump in NYC, he is in good shape heading down the stretch. If he gets zero bump, or a negative bump, then and only then am I going to get very worried.
GREENSPAN IS RAISING RATES BECAUSE WE HAVE A HOT ECONOMY PICKING UP STEAM.
I've been backing Bush with my wallet and my time since the beginning. I will not sweat the poll crap.
IMO - this notion just doesn't hold true anymore - with 24hour news - People's minds and thoughts are being influenced daily - The Campaigns and 527's have already spent well over $300 million on advertising ......"premises are being set...and have been set" -
Take the economy - We are 80 days from an election and the GWB reelection has left us in the position of having to try and sell to the public that the "economy isn't that bad...and is getting better" - (this is inexcusable!!) -
We are in the 3rd year of growth - The economy has grown every qtr since the GWB tax cuts were implemented - That being the 3rd Qtr of 2001 - We are seeing growth rates not seen in over 20 years with regard to many economic indicators! - YET, the DEM's set the premise on the economy with the American public that the economy is "bad" - and from OCT 2003 until (now pretty much) we have had no coherent response on the success of the economy out of our side -
Gore's surge in the end, aided by that dirty DUI trick, also cost Bush IA. Had he taken IA, NM, OR, and WI, the electoral vote would have been 301-237. Not even close. He would have won even without FL then.
Gore was NOT a sitting incumbent! - (and lastly that is a scandal type issue....not a deliberate surge based off the voting public changing its mind) - And lastly I have never bought into the DWI costing us that much -
While the democrats call GWB a "deserter" and Dick Cheney a "coward" in an absolutely filthy campaign, you have the republicans as usual not stooping to that level and permitting most Americans to believe they are on the defensive.
Thanks for your "on the road" report and congrats, many blessings to you and your new wife
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