Gore was NOT a sitting incumbent! - (and lastly that is a scandal type issue....not a deliberate surge based off the voting public changing its mind) - And lastly I have never bought into the DWI costing us that much -
Bush is doing well. He's closing the gap in the swing states. Check today's Gallup. Not only this, but he's ahead in all the red states by double digits and widening the gap. He has the convention coming up--and the debates. And he has a superior grass roots operation headed by super-organizer Ralph Reed--who won GA for the Republicans in 2002. Much of Bush's success is invisible--but it's incremental and growing whereas Kerry has just hired a new team of strategists. Clearly something is not working for him.
I do think the DUI cost Bush some votes - it wasn't notable in states he won by a decent margin, but it probably did cost him a few of those states he lost narrowly.