Posted on 08/15/2004 12:26:18 PM PDT by areafiftyone
Released: August 15, 2004
Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1011 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (August 12-14, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.
|
Presidential Candidates % |
Aug12-14 |
|
Democrat -John Kerry |
47 |
|
Republican-George W. Bush |
43 |
|
Independent-Ralph Nader |
2 |
|
Libertarian-Michael Badnarik |
1 |
|
Constitution-Michael Peroutka |
.2 |
|
Green-David Cobb |
.2 |
|
Other |
.8 |
| Undecided |
7
|
The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).
|
Presidential Ticket % |
Aug12-14 |
July 27-29 |
July 6-7 |
|
Kerry-Edwards |
50 |
48 |
48 |
|
Bush-Cheney |
43 |
43 |
46 |
|
Undecided |
6 |
8 |
5 |
President Bush’s overall job performance rating moved up three points to 47%, with more than half of respondents continuing to express their disapproval.
|
George W. Bush |
8/12-14 |
7/27-29 |
7/6-7 |
6/2-5 |
5/10-13 |
|
Approve |
47 |
44 |
49 |
46 |
42 |
|
Disapprove |
52 |
56 |
51 |
54 |
58 |
|
Undecided |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
The majority of respondents say that the country is headed on the wrong track (51%), while 42% feel the US is on the right track.
|
US Direction |
8/12-14 |
7/27-29 |
7/6-7 |
6/2-5 |
5/ 10-13 |
|
Wrong |
51 |
50 |
48 |
50 |
54 |
|
Right |
42 |
41 |
47 |
44 |
40 |
|
Undecided |
7 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority (53%) still says that it is "time for someone new."
|
George W. Bush |
8/12-14 |
7/27-29 |
7/6-7 |
6/2-5 |
5/10-13 |
|
Re-Elect |
43 |
42 |
43 |
43 |
42 |
|
Someone New |
53 |
51 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
|
Undecided |
4 |
7 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
As part of the Zogby-O’Leary Report Red and Blue States Monitor, in the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 54% of support, as compared to Bush 37%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 47%, while receives 41% support.
|
Presidential Ticket % |
Blues States |
Red States |
|
Kerry |
54 |
41 |
|
Bush |
37 |
47 |
|
Undecided |
6 |
6 |
Nearly one in three (31%) continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (19%); the war in Iraq (14%); health care (8%); and education (4%). * This month the war in Iraq stays as the fourth important issue
Pollster John Zogby: “Kerry leads in the Blue States by 17 (54%-37%) while Bush leads in the Red States by 6 (47%-41%). Good news for the President: he is back to attracting 86% of Republicans, while Kerry gets 79% of the Democrats. However, Kerry leads 49% to 31% among Independents.
“Among the majority who say the country is headed on the wrong track, Kerry leads 84% to 5%, while Bush has the right direction voters 86% to 8%. In 1996, Bill Clinton led Bob Dole over both groups.
“Kerry leads among all age groups except 30-49 year olds, where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Catholics give Kerry a 50%-37% edge – numbers more similar to Clinton’s leads in 1992 and 1996 than Al Gore’s 51% to 46% margin in 2000. Protestants are for Bush (57% to 33%), especially on the strength of the President’s 68% to 20% margin among Born Again Protestants.
“Voters with active passports prefer Kerry 58% to 35%, while those without a passport are for Bush 48% to 39%. Union voters give Kerry a 22 point advantage – 55% to 33%.
“The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class – Kerry 45% to Bush’s 44%. Bush won this group by double digits in 2000. Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.
“Bush leads among men 46% to 43%, while Kerry leads among women 50% to 39%. Bush also leads among Northern Europeans 47% to 44% and Southern Europeans 52% to 47%. Kerry is ahead among Eastern Europeans 63% to 29%.
“Big city voters favor Kerry 58% to 36%, as do Suburban voters 49% to 41%, while small city voters are with Bush 52% to 38%. Bush leads Kerry among rural voters 42% to 39%.”
Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1011 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday, August 12 through Saturday, August 14. The margin of error is +/3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
These polls flip flop more than kerry does. Best wait until November 3.
I have been participating in the Zogby poll for 3 months. The last one was my last after they included these types of questions (apparently the dem's have more time to take polls with useless questions):
What is more important to you - pro-life or pro-choice?
What is more important to you - pro-gun or gun control?
What is more important to you - gay rights or don't ask-don't tell?
Who would you most like to have a beer with - George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Do you more often drink Coke or Pepsi?
What is your astrological sign?
When viewing the world, do you look at things locally or globally?
What is more important to you - what is going on in Main Street or what is going on in Wall Street?
Where are you more likely to shop - Wal-Mart or JC Penney's
What is your favorite ice cream flavor - vanilla, chocolate, or strawberry?
Which one of the following brands of ice cream are you more likely to buy - Ben and Jerry's or Hagen Daas?
Do you consider yourself a dog person or a cat person?
Which of the following would you be more likely to order at a restaurant - steak, pasta, or salad?
Which channel do you watch most often for news - CNN, Fox, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS?
Where are you more likely to purchase coffee - Starbucks or Dunkin Donuts?
Where would you rather swim - in a pool or in a lake?
Who would you more likely vote for for president - the Tin Man, who is all brains and no heart or the Scarecrow, who is all heart and no brain?
Do you drive a foreign- or domestic-made car?
What is more important to you - working hard and fulfilling your responsibilities or doing things that give you joy or pleasure?
What is more important to you when you vote: your religion or ethnicity?
Do you prefer to read your news from the newspaper in print or on the Internet?
Do you prefer shopping at Wal-Mart, or at a third generation family-owned business?
Who do you think was the greatest President: George Washington or Abraham Lincoln?
Which of the following do you feel promotes a philosophy you identify with more: pro-private sector or pro- government sector
Have you seen the movie The Passion of the Christ?
Have you seen the movie Fahrenheit 911?
Which of the following do you support: pro-union or open shop?
Do you consider yourself to be pro-environment or pro-development?
Wait till November 1st. Zogsauce will do just like he did in 2000 and release a poll without his personal bias included. Then if he turns out to be right, everyone will shower him with praise for calling the election so precisely.
It's better than most polls. If we treat each group as 1/3rd of the electorate, then the 18-point Kerry lead among independents would give Kerry a 6-point lead. Bush's 86% support among Republicans vs. Kerry's 79% support among Dems would lead to a net gain of 4% for Bush (that's a 7-point difference in margin among 2/3rds of the electorate, that's over 4 points in Bush's direction).
So without any weighting of Dems over Republicans, his poll should show a 2-point Kerry lead. It shows a 4-point lead, which indicates a slight imbalance in favor of the Dems. He probably polled about 4% more Dems than Republicans.
you know what is strange about it, is that i was part of this poll, but it was not a telephone poll. it was conducted on-line. i had signed up for their polls a long time ago and this was the first time they contacted me. they contacted me via email. i recognized the questions.
Actually it's not guesswork, just seat of the pants algebra. The only assumptions I had to make were 1) that the independents were about 1/3rd of the total and 2) that the total Kerry + Bush support among Dems (79% + whatever for Bush) was the same as the total Kerry + Bush (whatever for Kerry + 86%) support was among Republicans.
Pssst...if these "independents"
truly favor Kerry by 18%, then a
lot of them are LYING about being
indys & are, in reality, DEMS!
Whaddiyuh think about THAT???
@
If we are still trailing after our convention, then I will start to worry. Until then, W just needs to make sure his campaign stays on message and is as mistake-free as possible.
@
Zogby is an Arab. He hates Bush and wants Kerry to win.
Osama is an Arab. He hates Bush and wants Kerry to win.
Zogby and Osama have never been seen in the same place at the same time.
Coincidence?
;)
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
"Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups".
Special Sauce?
Hmmmmm, uhhhhhh, riiiiiiight! I will believe Gallup myself; thank you very much!
LLS
Yet another BOGUS Zogby poll -- weighted both to benefit Democrats and to counter the recent Gallup poll!!
If we examine the poll for trends only, however, it becomes apparent that the President's 'Zogby-sauced' ratings have improved since Zogby's last poll:
MATCH-UP
8/12-14/04 B/C 43% K/E 47% Nader 2%
7/26-29/04 B/C 41% K/E 46% Nader 3%
JOB APPROVAL
8/12-14/04 47% excellent/good 52% fair/poor
**(equivalent to a 53-54% approval rating for Gallup)
7/26-29/04 44% excellent/good 56% fair/poor
REMEMBER: The current goal of leftist pollsters (who now comprise approximately 95% of all pollsters) is to demoralize the President's base by making it appear as though he has no chance of winning -- all we have to do is 'name the game' and move on!!!
My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
------
Right now W's average approval ratings is 47.8 from last 10 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.
So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.
W/O Nader
Bush 48.3%
Kerry 50.6
Others 1.1
Bush 48.3
Kerry 49.5
Nader 1.3
Others 0.7
MOE+/-1%
----
Per Zogby if you has a active Passport, you wouldn't be supporting W
Per Zogby if you have an active Passport, you wouldn't be supporting W.
Travelers are smarter than non world travels...lol
Sorry guys, but I just don't trust these Zogby polls for much. He's had Kerry up the whole year and now Kerry edges 47%-43%. Once upon a time people took Zogby really seriously (after his 1996 call). But, after his faulty calls in countless state polls, I just can't give him that much credit. As an Arab, he's hopelessly biased in Kerry's favor.
That said, I was encouraged to see the President's job approval ratings up in his poll (Gallup shows the Prez up to a 51% job approval rating).
Pray for W and Our Amazing Troops
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