My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
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Right now W's average approval ratings is 47.8 from last 10 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.
So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.
W/O Nader
Bush 48.3%
Kerry 50.6
Others 1.1
Bush 48.3
Kerry 49.5
Nader 1.3
Others 0.7
MOE+/-1%
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Per Zogby if you has a active Passport, you wouldn't be supporting W