Charley's Force Took Experts by Surprise (NOAA Covering It's Behind...)

AP ^ | 08/14/2004 | SnapperJK

[snapperjk]

Aug 14, 6:41 PM (ET)

By MARCIA DUNN

Hurricane Charley's 145-mph force took forecasters by surprise and showed just how shaky a science it still is to predict a storm's intensity - even with all the latest satellite and radar technology.

"Most major hurricanes become major by going through a rapid intensification. This is the Number 1 area to research. I think that there is the perception out there because of the satellite photos and aircraft data, people do have faith in the technology and sometimes that faith is too much," Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center director, told reporters Saturday in Miami, 24 hours after Charley slammed into Florida's western coast.

"A lot of people think we can give them a near perfect forecast. We know we can't give them a near perfect forecast."

[Felis_irritable]

Ahem.

I think I feel your pain (or maybe not).

Mother in law is so conservative, and has been all her life, that she made Goldwater look liberal.

If in fact her house is gone, I doubt she'll replace it. She will most likely keep herself and her disposable income where you want her to.

[Howlin]

What do you mean they do not reflect a degree of uncertainty? Each alert is issued with a strike probability, is that what you're talking about?

[Howlin]

Here is a NHC alert that very morning:

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...HURRICANE CHARLEY ON TRACK...WIND GUSTS TO 124 MPH IN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

Now, what area emcompasses East Cape Sable northward to Steinhatchee River?

[Marak]

LOL Actually Earl is 2750 miles from Galveston. Make your preparations now :)

[Texas Eagle]

That's all I'm saying.

[Gabz]

Have a nasty steak in you, don't you?

[BOOTSTICK]

I find it very odd that the probabilities chart on the NOAA web site had higer probability numbers for Naples, Ft. Myers, 12 hours before landfall, than they did for Tampa/St. Petersburg???!!!!.Now who is stupid?

[snapperjk]

Ping... ,

[Marak]

Actually the National Hurricane Center did quite a good job with Charley. Anyone who was paying attention (and anyone who lives in Florida SHOULD pay attention) knew that Charley could hit anywhere between Marco Island and north of Tampa. When a hurricane is skirting the coast, as Charley was, where it actually makes landfall is impossible to predict, and the NHC never claimed to know where it was going. They posted the results of all of their computer models and liberally sprinkled it with warnings that they could not predict an impact point.

All of the county and municipal governments were kept informed and it was up to them to direct evacuation orders. It has been my experience to ignore the media when it comes to hurricanes and listen to the NHC. They give you the raw data and not hype.

Seems to me the only thing NHC might have missed was the prediction of cat 4 before landfall, although they did predict swift strenghtening to a cat 3 even before it hit Cuba.

[Texas Eagle]

And where did Charley hit?

[Gabz]

ROFL!!!!!!

I'm going to bed, I'll worry about flooding here in the morning - goodnight all.

[mesoman7]

"When a hurricane is skirting the coast, as Charley was, where it actually makes landfall is impossible to predict, and the NHC never claimed to know where it was going. They posted the results of all of their computer models and liberally sprinkled it with warnings that they could not predict an impact point."

Very true. NHC forecasters tweak the input to their computer models and obtain different solutions...sometimes VERY different solutions The trick is to decide which is the RIGHT solution. It's a tough call, and the stakes are high. I've dealt mostly with tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings, where the decision is made in seconds. High stress, but I love it.

I have enjoyed the thread. One of the best features of FR is to interact with others who CAN THINK! Well, the forecast database is updated for the midnight shift. Time to call it a day. Good night all...

[kayak]

Thank you for your service to our country, both in the military and as a meteorologist. And welcome to FR!

When Neil Frank was head of the NHC (or whatever it was called at the time), he was an excellent PR person ... had a talent for explaining complicated things so that ordinary idiots could understand them.

I heard him explain that with all of the sophisticated equipment we have, we can only tell what a hurricane has done and is doing currently. We cannot know precisely what it will do. Even though the technology has advanced quite a bit since he said that, it's still true.

As someone who grew up in coastal NC, I have experienced and tracked a lot of hurricanes and have seen some amazingly fickle ones, including some that did loop-de-loops.

For the most part I think that meteorologists do a fantastic job ... and I also realize that you are the first to admit your mistakes (I guess it's hard not to ... LOL!) and figure out why the forecast was wrong -- not to place blame but to try to learn so you can do better next time.

(And, no, I don't kayak.)

[Kirkwood]

I'm an emergency manager in NOLA so I never evacuate, but I'm kept pretty busy. I guess that is why the storms all kind of blend together in my memory.

Yes, the flood water may top out a third story building under the right conditions. You can probably survive if you can make it to the 4th floor of some building or to the top of the I-10 in places. Being several feet below sea level really puts us at a serious disadvantage for severe storms, but for light storms, the levees provide tremendous protection.

Of course if we do get the big one, then you may have to wait days to be rescued, especially if you are trapped inside of a building and we can't see you from a boat or a barge. Take an axe or chainsaw with you if you are forced into your attic in case you need to get up onto the roof. We tell people that there will be places with 18 to 24 feet of water if the levees are topped and the pumps fail and they can't believe it, but it could happen. If the eye of the storm came up the river and backed up the river flow with an 18 foot storm surge on top of that and then crossed over onto the lake and pushed much of that water back into the city, we are going to have a very bad day. If the pumps go under water, they could be out of service up to 6 months. So that means the city is underwater for that entire time.

If you choose to stay in the city with a cat 3 or higher storm you have to be very cognizant of rapidly rising water. Head for high ground and be sure to take along a life vest and enough food and water to wait several days to be rescued by boat or barge. Our levees are rated for Cat 2, but even so there may be localized flooding of around 5 feet in some areas due to heavy rain alone. By the way, a storm surge could easily travel from the gulf all the way to Baton Rouge, so it is extremely important for those outside the levee system to evacuate even cat 1 and 2 storms.

[Kirkwood]

Strike probabilities are based in part on proximity, not just direction of the storm track. So of course all coastal points south of Tampa were going to have higher probabilities just because they were so close to the eye.

[NautiNurse]

Why don't you dash up to New England and get a deathbed confession from Charley for his chosen path?

That would make as much sense as your attitude for laser precision hurricane tracking.

[fatima]

lightman,Pa don't talk like you.

[fatima]

Night smart mesoman7.can we hear from you tom.?

[The Duke]

What do you mean they do not reflect a degree of uncertainty? Each alert is issued with a strike probability, is that what you're talking about?

I'm saying the pretty little diagram that the projections were distilled into showed no possibility of a hit on the Fort Meyers area.

[NautiNurse]

Ft Myers Strike Probabilities

Thurs 5:00PM 42%
Thurs 11:00PM 47%
Fri 8:00AM 50%
Fri 11:00AM 86%

In all cases, the strike probabilities were close, yet slightly greater than Tampa strike probabilities.

Source: NHC Strike Probabilities Archives