Charley's Force Took Experts by Surprise (NOAA Covering It's Behind...)

AP ^ | 08/14/2004 | SnapperJK

[snapperjk]

Aug 14, 6:41 PM (ET)

By MARCIA DUNN

Hurricane Charley's 145-mph force took forecasters by surprise and showed just how shaky a science it still is to predict a storm's intensity - even with all the latest satellite and radar technology.

"Most major hurricanes become major by going through a rapid intensification. This is the Number 1 area to research. I think that there is the perception out there because of the satellite photos and aircraft data, people do have faith in the technology and sometimes that faith is too much," Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center director, told reporters Saturday in Miami, 24 hours after Charley slammed into Florida's western coast.

"A lot of people think we can give them a near perfect forecast. We know we can't give them a near perfect forecast."

[Atchafalaya]

Ah, I think NOAA did a pretty good job with this one. The trac was right on; when you get within 8 to fewer hrs. it is much harder to take into account local climatologocal events that can effect a previous forecast. Hats off to NOAA. Next time listen and GTFO! I am currently watching the next burble that plans to come up the chute; God give us one more cool front at the right time.

[snapperjk]

I noticed that in light of the past false alarms for evacuation, that this time local government was cutting it close before issuing evac orders.
...To the future, it will be interesting to see how the media, local government and the NHC will handle the two new storms heading for the US and Central America; one of which is now officially a hurricane, the other still a tropical storm.

[stboz]

Who didn't know that? People aren't actually stuid enough to blame NOAA are they?

Yes.

[jamaly]

My memory is a little hazy, but I beleive 2 years ago hurricane Lily was headed for Louisiana and dropped 2 full categories just before landfall. There is just no way to know what a storm will do so you plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Your memory is right. In fact we evacuated two weeks in a row for Isidore and then a few days later for Lilly. Evacuating is a nuisance and expensive if you stay in nice hotels. However, we all lived and were unhurt.

Last night on the local news a reporter demonstrated how high the water would be in downtown New Orleans if we got hit by a category 4 hurricane. She was standing by a window on the 4th floor of an office building!!!!!! She said the water would get that high!!!! Also, New Orleans is below sea level and has a levee all around it. Once the water gets in it can only get out by being pumped out. I live about 25 miles from New Orleans and we are surrounded by the Mississippi River, levees and Lake Pontchtrain, not to mention swamps. I insist on evacuating even if they only predict a category 1, anyone who stays around is pretty stupid, IMHO.

[albertp]

Who didn't know that? People aren't actually stupid enough to blame NOAA are they?

No, they are actually quite intelligent. Now some of them no doubt will go out and hire the likes of an ambulance chaser such as John Edwards to sue the weatherman. You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. If anything, they (the ones who are contemplating lawsuits) should sue themselves for their own obstinacy and stupidity. If you don't know by now that a storm can RAPIDLY increase in intensity...oh, well! -- Here I recall the Blizzard of 1978 in the northeast -- despite "up-to-the-minute" and timid weather forecasts, any FOOL could tell just by looking outdoors, and most certainly anyone who was trying to drive on roads already icing over and dangerous to negotiate, in the first few hours of the storm with visibility near zero, that the atmosphere was already overloading with snow and more snow (a RAPID convergence of several low pressure systems over land and ocean). People instinctively abandoned their vehicles and WALKED to safety!

[ClearBlueSky]

I've been saying the same thing for years! I'm gonna believe a weather forecaster who misses the forecast for a line of thunderstorms when it comes to a HURRICANE? And DAYS away??

Hurricanes veer away at the last hour. Betsy did it- it wasn't supposed to affect N.O., and I was in school at the time. We were sent home without explanation- it hit that night.
Camille WAS coming for New Orleans and ended up making a slight detour that took it to the Mississipi Gulf coast, right past the LA state line. Andrew was coming right for N.O- we were told we were doomed, almost everyone evacuated. It ended up in Western Louisiana, then veered inland and we were caught in Jackson Mississipi .
When hurricanes are close to the coast, half of their convection is already inland. They are fickle beasts, and a deviation of only a few miles can make a world of difference.

[Texas Eagle]

Yo, Floridians. Word up. There's a storm brewing out there by the name of Earl. It's headed for the general direction of Floridia. I advise you to keep your eyes on it and get ready to bug out. Even if that means bugging out at the last minute.

You've been warned. Now step to it.

[VA40]

Maybe I have misunderstood you. I think these people do all that they can and hopefully they learn more with each new event. We would not wait for the TV to tell us when to evacuate because we know that they don't know. They seem to know which direction these storms are going to go specifically, but within a large range. If you are anywhere inside that entire range you've got to decide for yourself.
I've seen hurricanes get right up on us and then seemingly turn on a dime.

[stboz]

They are fickle beasts, and a deviation of only a few miles can make a world of difference.

You have spoken the truth and for that the news media will crucify you if they hear of it.

[Keith in Iowa]

>>>....compared to 6 minutes warning for tornadoes...

If even that much.

[snapperjk]

Yea, Texas Eagle!! Now that's a forecast!

When Bush is reelected, you've got my vote for head of NOAA. My point is (and you hit it right on the nail), don't give us this BS so called 'Super Duper Quadruple Three Eyed Triple Doppler' forecast. Just give us the information based on the level of technology we are at. If the NCH says they cannot predict, yet, with accuracy, then don't forecast accuracy. Plain and Simple.
Thanks, TE.

[The Duke]

The projections SHOULD reflect the degree of uncertainty,
which they DID NOT DO prior to Charley's landfall.

[snapperjk]

Ping...

[tbpiper]

Go to the link and read the rest of NOAA's back strokes!

Horsesh*t. Nobody could have predicted a jump from a minimal Cat 2 to a solid Cat 4. The hurricane warning was for the whole west coast including Punta Gorda. People in Florida are smart enough to know you don't relax until it's passed you.

[walford]

"There's a storm brewing out there by the name of Earl. It's headed for the general direction of Florida."

And Danielle after that...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1191761/posts

[Texas Eagle]

When Bush is reelected, you've got my vote for head of NOAA.

awwwwww...I'm touched.

[FreeReign]

"We were not saying Tampa. We were saying the west coast of Florida," Berg said. The media's fixation with "Tampa, Tampa, Tampa," gave the public the wrong idea, he noted.

Warning: Listening to the media can be harmful to your health.

[Texas Eagle]

The projected path I saw of Danielle shows that she's going to spin herself out in the middle of the Atlantic.

But still! Keep an eye on her. You know how women are about changing their minds.

Not that I'm a sexist or a bigot or a homophobe.

Well....maybe a little bit of a sexist.

And a bigot.

Okay! And a homophobe! That McGreevey guy creeps me out.

[mesoman7]

Guess it's time for a NOAA/NWS meteorologist to weigh in. As I sit here staring at 10 different displays of current weather data, some of it contradictory...I wonder how we can do it at all. Weather forecasting is not an exact science...not just an excuse, but a sad fact. About 10% science, 30% experience, and 60% luck. I have only little experience with tropical systems, but I do know that the steering mechanisms are EXTREMELY subtle. A minor variation in pressure or winds can drastically alter the track. Combine that with the lack of data over the water, and you have a challenge...to say the least. The fact is...the folks down at NHC eat, breathe, and live this stuff. You won't find a more fiercely dedicated bunch of people. Believe me, you don't want anyone else doing that job.

Sorry about the long post, but you touch an area near and dear to my heart. Don't fret...we forecasters have thick hides.

[Boxsford]

Thanks Julie!