Posted on 08/14/2004 7:06:04 PM PDT by snapperjk
Aug 14, 6:41 PM (ET)
By MARCIA DUNN
Hurricane Charley's 145-mph force took forecasters by surprise and showed just how shaky a science it still is to predict a storm's intensity - even with all the latest satellite and radar technology.
"Most major hurricanes become major by going through a rapid intensification. This is the Number 1 area to research. I think that there is the perception out there because of the satellite photos and aircraft data, people do have faith in the technology and sometimes that faith is too much," Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center director, told reporters Saturday in Miami, 24 hours after Charley slammed into Florida's western coast.
"A lot of people think we can give them a near perfect forecast. We know we can't give them a near perfect forecast."
(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.myway.com ...
I spend June and much of July giving hurricane preparedness talks in community centers and churches. Despite everything we tell people, there is always about a third who say they will never evacuate under any circumstance because they don't want to lose all their possessions. Many of these are people over the age of 60 who sway they would rather die than live in a shelter. I tell them to put the name of their next of kin in a pocket so we know who to call if we are lucky enough to find their remains.
A certain percentage of people are just plain stupid. Always have been, always will be.
The only thing I didn't understand was why they didn't upgrade at 11am, when the data suggested the storm was rapidly deepening.
This is the actual title of the posted article:
"Charley's Force Took Experts by Surprise"
Living here in the DC Metro Area, people never seem to tire of crabbin' about how weather forcasts here are often incorrect. The fact is, weather is difficult to predict. Weather forcasters are the first to admit this. Quoting the NOAA official:
"I think that there is the perception out there because of the satellite photos and aircraft data, people do have faith in the technology and sometimes that faith is too much...A lot of people think we can give them a near perfect forecast. We know we can't give them a near perfect forecast."
For my part, I'm periodically checking the weather maps and forcasts in case Charley decides to veer in my direction, because in the video game of life you only get one man.
I remember that the National Park Service decided to stop giving crowd size estimates after the 'Million Man March' because the supporters didn't like the NPS' numbers. Who can blame them?
Anyone with a memory of these storms knows that they tend to behave erratically. As I said in another thread:
|Past experience has shown that these storms can take erratic paths. They do travel slowly, though and anyone who has a TV or radio should check the reports periodically and get out of the way.|
Check the maps in the link showing the paths of Camille and
Agnes:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1191393/posts?page=138#138
I guess when there is a significant loss of life, some people draw comfort in looking for someone to blame -- the local government, the people who were warned but decided to stay, the weather forcasters, Boutros-Boutros Gali, etc.
Maybe instead it would be more productive to consider the possibility of learning from this, to minimize losses in future storms and doing what we can to help the people who've been affected.
"Kinda like how they call it "fishing" and not "catching"."
"I lived my whole life in the Tidewater area of Virginia. The best weather forecast we can get here is by standing out in the backyard and looking around."
NOAA=Miss Cleo's Psychic Hot Line
The reference that you are criticizing was based on where Charley would make landfall, not the entire path of the storm.
This is just ridiculous! A hurricane is a force of nature. They happen and it's nobody's fault! There's nobody to sue and nobody to blame. I can't believe that anyone thinks that NOAA or anyone else has anything to answer for here.
Gee, and did you think the hurricane was just supposed to STOP on the west coast, have a cigarette, and decide to retire there?
Charley was, what, 150 miles wide, on average?
Like the cucaracha said, were they expecting cruise-missile pinpoint accuracy? Are hurricanes a new phenomenon to Florida?
I'd like to refer these people to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, which disappeared 7000 Texans, for purposes of scale.
Personally, I don't have sympathy for folks who can't hit the NHC website and see where the hurricane is headed, read the forecast discussion etc.
If they would have read all the data there, they would have realized the Tampa craze was not the whole story.
It was clearly heading south of Tampa...to me anyway...Thursday night right after it crossed Cuba. It would not have taken viewers of the sat and radar until right before landfall to realize this.
If all people do is watch the news and think they got all the info they need, tough luck folks.
I guess when there is a significant loss of life, some wimps and pussies draw comfort in looking for someone to blame
My memory is a little hazy, but I beleive 2 years ago hurricane Lily was headed for Louisiana and dropped 2 full categories just before landfall. There is just no way to know what a storm will do so you plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Jeb first, Dubya second, VRWC third
Mother Nature does not factor into the equation
Yes, it's what the liberals/media want: lamebrain lemmings.
"I lived my whole life in the Tidewater area of Virginia. The best weather forecast we can get here is by standing out in the backyard and looking around."
My father lives in the Northern Neck [where the Confederates positioned themselves during parts of the Civil War Peninsula campaign]. Of course, I called him today.
He lost power for 10 days last year during Hugo. How'd you and yours make out?
Ping...
They also seem to be under the impression that Tampa is several thousand miles away from Punta Gorda....
It went through here so fast. We got a lot of rain, flooded the yard and street some. They were saying 70mph wind on TV but I never saw more than 30. It was over before we knew it.
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