Posted on 08/14/2004 7:06:04 PM PDT by snapperjk
Aug 14, 6:41 PM (ET)
By MARCIA DUNN
Hurricane Charley's 145-mph force took forecasters by surprise and showed just how shaky a science it still is to predict a storm's intensity - even with all the latest satellite and radar technology.
"Most major hurricanes become major by going through a rapid intensification. This is the Number 1 area to research. I think that there is the perception out there because of the satellite photos and aircraft data, people do have faith in the technology and sometimes that faith is too much," Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center director, told reporters Saturday in Miami, 24 hours after Charley slammed into Florida's western coast.
"A lot of people think we can give them a near perfect forecast. We know we can't give them a near perfect forecast."
(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.myway.com ...
Who didn't know that? People aren't actually stuid enough to blame NOAA are they?
Lest I look stuid....stuid=stupid.
Computer models can't predict what a huricane will do 2 hours from now but they can predict the climate of the whole earth two decades from now. It's freeking magic.
FYI........Ping
... in a time of sadness, your humor speaks the sarcasm of truth. Amen.
There was a Hurricane warning posted if you chose to Ignore then who can you blame?? I grew up in south Florida and these things are a part of life here..And you better respect them.
If anybody is upset that NOAA didn't give them perfect Charley-avoidance advice, i.e. which hotels to avoid, they should visit Texas and Oklahoma in May and realize that days warning is luxurious, compared to 6 minutes warning for tornadoes.
Lookee here.......Ping
The media again!
Weather forecasting is NOT an exact science! I'm with NOAA on this.
Beat me by what, 5 minutes? The gloom and doomers would say that they can predict overall trends, but I still agree that if they can't predict a few thoudsand square miles' weather a day or two ahead, how can they predict the planet 50 years out?
BTW, my mother-in-law has a winter place close to Ft. Myers. She thinks it's OK, I think she's in denial. We'll find out in a day or two.
I wonder if what would happen if the global warming predictions were off by a small factor.
Exactly. I question the wisdom of anyone on the West Coast of Florida . . . especially anyone living in a mobile home . . . who didn't heed these warnings.
It is just a shame that Charley failed to follow the careful instructions given by NOAA. The path and magnatude was clearly stated. The blame falls entirely on the non-compliant hurricane. Bad storm.
"All along, the hurricane center had issued warnings for coastal residents from the Keys all the way up to Tampa Bay, said hurricane center meteorologist Robbie Berg."
What, did the unfortunate folks of Punta Gorda think the hurricane was only a mile wide and would hit Tampa with the precision of a cruise missile? I was all the way up in Lake City and was ready to put on my boogie shoes. No way you can lay this at the feet of NOAA. Any city close to a hurricane's path needs to assume the worst and prepare accordingly.
Some actually are stupid enough.
Although I will say that in the initial thread on the storm, I issued a wondering if the storm would go further south than predicted since it was obviously going more north/northeast than progged.
Still, blaming the NHC is idiotic. Hurricane tracking is NOT an exact science; it is one of the hardest forecasting areas, in fact...because even the slightest movement means a huge difference in who is impacted.
In this way, it is like perhaps one of the next-most difficult areas to forecast, snowstorms. Those are pains in the behind to forecast because being off even a tiny bit can make a huge difference to people like a hurricane. The number of things that can go wrong kind of is like hurricanes as well.
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