Posted on 08/13/2004 12:50:06 PM PDT by veronica
Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins
By E&P Staff
Published: August 11, 2004
NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters out there who think the Iraq war will have a major influence on the fall election, or who think the Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a landslide.
In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small."
Fair, who claims to be a Kerry supporter, is described by the Times in the Aug. 15 issue as being known for creating an econometric equation that "has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy." His most recent book, in fact, is titled, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things."
How does he explain media expectations of a close race? Polls are "notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election," he said, while his model has allegedly proven accurate to within 2.5%.
Economic growth and inflation are really the only things that matter in a presidential race, he argues, with the current war and social issues such as gay marriage having negligible impact.
Asked if his prediction will boost Bush's prospects, Fair replied, "If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
In other words, "No, I'm not kidding. Or am I?"
I'm counting on him getting at least a modest bounce out of his convention which would put him up by several points. If he doesn't get it, then I will start to worry. Until then, as long as the race remains essesntially tied, I'm happy.
Problem with FL is that lots of new people move in for NY and CT etc. so it is not a state like Georgia. It is more llike a state bordering NY.
One thing that Kerry has done that damaged his chances is the fact that he blatantly lies about things he knows nothing about.
Nobody believes he's a farmer. Nobody believes he's a hunter. Nobody believes he knows anything about sports. The fact that he repeats the same old lie that Bush lied about Iraq proves him to be a liar.
Now the swift vets have come out and caused a lot of people to question his credibility on that front as well.
And the next day backed off a bit...(hehehe)
A More Sensitive Note(Kerry gets hammered in the note)
Yesterday, in full voice, we told you that the presidential race was John Kerry's to lose.
Some readers thought our analysis too dire for Mr. Bush, but we were clear in saying that the President can still quite easily retain the White House, through some combination of Bush winning it and — Note well — Kerry losing it.
Yesterday's aggressive Bush-Cheney playing of the national security, character, and judgment cards are obviously part of any Bush comeback.
~snip~
I say let'em continue to print this malarky. It'll worry enough real people that they will turn out to vote for Bush in droves to ensure that he stays in office.
Oh my god are you quoting Dick Morris? Why?
When pollsters say that President Bush "must win" certain states, I know they aren't thinking too deeply. Sure, he does - if Kerry carries every single state that Al Gore carried. I think it highly likely that there will be a surprise or two among OR, WI, MI, MN, IA, PA, NM, ME, even NJ. To think that all that Kerry has to do is peel off a state here or there - that's silly. He has his work cut out for him just holding all of Gore's states. one loss for him in WI, MI, PA, MN and all these analyses that fight the last war again go out the window.
This is a very loose assessment of the race. There are a number of significant problems for the RATs and Kerry, not the least of which is they ought to get the muzzle on Mama T as soon as possible. It doesn't take a genius to see that she ought to be locked up until after the election. She isn't helping Johnny in middle America. Bush hatred alone is not going to get Kerry elected. It didn't work on Clinton in 1996. This election is going to be about one thing: the War on Terror and nothing else. So the only question to be answered by voters is "Who do you think will do a better job defending the US"?
What you say is true, but I still think that, absent the early call by the networks in 2000, the FL panhandle would have easily put Bush over the top, no questions asked...
Or even NJ???
Exactly! -- And, they know if Kerry doesn't have a double digit lead across the board in August, he's not doing well at all.
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