KERRY IS NOT THE FAVORITE

Real Clear Politics.com ^ | 8-14-04 | J. McIntyre

[WOSG]

Latest Gallup has Bush approval at 51%.

majority approve of Bush.

the economy grew at 4.8% last year, productivity is up,and
1.5 million jobs were created in the last year.

we constantly see a media focus on the negativity, not the overall reality.

[WOSG]

"What's amazing to me is that he is even close enough to be considered to have a chance to win. How half the country can support that boob at this crucial time is beyond me. "

Right. This scares me.

Then again, it scared me that an unqualified draft-dodging boob from arkansas beat his Dad.

[Coop]

Bush is behind in all of those states at the moment. I wouldnt count on him winning any of those unless he wins by a landslide.

You say he is, I say he's not. I'd count on him picking up a couple of them.

[Coop]

Well, I think we're in basic agreement. I'd certainly rate Kerry the favorite in NJ, even with the hopeful early polling, but it's not beyond Dubya's grasp IMHO. And who knows how this McGreevey situation will eventually shake out? But it can't be particularly helpful to Kerry. :-)

[JLS]

Thanks to whoever pinged me.
_________________________________________________

"I'd count on him picking up a couple of them.

___________________________________________________

This article is a more reasonable analysis than I have seen elsewhere.

It is odd there was no bump in national polls, but maybe one in the state by state polls? I wonder if the same thing will happen post convention.

My personal opinion is that Bush will win Missouri and Florida. Ohio is the wild card this time for me. I don't know what to think about N.H. that all the time we hear the GOP will lose, but often the GOP wins in presidential elections.

I further believe that Ohio could be made up with Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico. Ohio is apparently worse for the GOP this year because of a GOP Governor who is making enemies?

Finally, Dales' site has 96 electoral votes within the margin of error. This fits the analysis in this article.

[ladyinred]

The media believes in the power of words. If they speak them, they will become truth. It is a special form of wicca or something they are practicing. The power of propaganda, that is what we are seeing.

[claudiustg]

---Pollsters keep repeating Iraq is a failure. It is Vietnam. No WMD's. The economy is stagnant. Bush is a liar. Bush is a Failure. Bush is a Divider. People hate Bush. Kerry is tied with Bush. Kerry is making inroads on Commander-In-Chief qualifications. Bush is in trouble. Bush is going to lose. We've lost world respect. Yada yada.---

Bush by ten points, at least.

[Reverend Bob]

In a close race, the outcome could easily be decided, not in Florida or Ohio, but in the "Gore states" of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. It will be interesting watching the travel patterns of the candidates in the last two weeks before the election.